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Andyn added a topic in GeneralWhat is RNGWhile the server is still down, I just feel compelled to speak out about how people have been waving the word RNG without really understanding what it really means.
While a random variable can be designed such that anything can happen, an unbiased distribution with repeated trials approaches its mean prediction asymptotically. For example, if throwing a dice has 1/6 chance of landing the number "3", then while it is surely possible that each throw in 100 consecutive trials never end with a "3", it is extremely unlikely. After infinite number of trials, the event "3 never realizes", although technically possible, has a probability of 0. We call this type of events a measure zero event, or simply "almost never" in measure theory and probability theory. You may be more familiar with a relevant theory is called Law of Large Number, which hopefully american high schools teach their students. LLN is a theoretical proof of how the only conceivable thing to happen when you repeatedly trial on a random variable with an arbitrary mean, the average of realization across trials must approach the mean of its distribution.
You might wonder, surely we never have infinite trials in this game, so we cannot prove that the distribution we are facing are in fact biased. But in the case of finite trial, there is this thing that one learns in introductory statistics at college called the binomial distribution. Consider having a yes/no trial with p probability of "yes", and a total number N of trials. The binomial distribution tells you what is the likelihood of any given number of successes among these trials. Check out this calculator. Let's say I think a +15 on boss armor attempt has chances 15% success, 85% failure. Then, like I actually did, I failed a total of 30 times. I can enter into this calculator ".15" "30" "0" respectively, and the first number it gives is the probability of this set of outcomes happening under the "15% success, 85% failure" distribution. In my example, this number is 0.007, which is 0.7%. Meaning that if "15% success, 85% failure" is indeed the true chances, then my unfortunate experience should only happen with 0.7% chance. Sure, 0.7% is larger than zero, meaning it is indeed possible. But to be ignorant of the fact that it is 0.7% and to simply dismiss it as "RNG" can deter one from revising whether or not the "15% success, 85% failure" distribution is in fact in play.
Finally, there are also stories about how your friend gets 10 MOS in two hrs of grind but you got only 1, or how someone got 2 kzarka boxes in 10 tries but someone else didn't get any in 20. There are indeed similar tests of how likely these two samples are drawn from the same distribution, but they are a lot more complicated since we do not have a particular distribution that we are testing on. The best-known method named after the brilliant Russian mathematicians Andrey Komogorov and Nikolai Smirnov, but this is quite high level so I won't elaborate.
Hope this helps . All I try to get at is that while reducing any realization of outcome as the result of "RNG" is unarguably correct, one can often say more about its likelihood, even though we won't be able to change anything anyway .
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