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RIP Edan Blackstone powder profits


51 posts in this topic

Posted

Just got online and saw that the market min/max for BSP was severely reduced overnight, to the point where I don't believe it is possible to grind crystals for BSP and make a profit anymore. BSP formerly had a minimum allowable price of ~1350 and usually sold for somewhere around ~1650. Minimum price is now ~1100 with a MAX listable price of ~1550. I expect to see a sharp drop in the amount of Blackstone powder available on the market due to people like myself who process crystals from the market no longer doing so due to the extreme loss in value. The available amount has already sharply dropped from the usual 20k-40k to around 6k available right now.

 

I guess I'm lucky that the 8k I had listed sold overnight before the price crash.

 

RIP BSP

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Posted

Just got online and saw that the market min/max for BSP was severely reduced overnight, to the point where I don't believe it is possible to grind crystals for BSP and make a profit anymore. BSP formerly had a minimum allowable price of ~1350 and usually sold for somewhere around ~1650. Minimum price is now ~1100 with a MAX listable price of ~1550. I expect to see a sharp drop in the amount of Blackstone powder available on the market due to people like myself who process crystals from the market no longer doing so due to the extreme loss in value. The available amount has already sharply dropped from the usual 20k-40k to around 6k available right now.

 

I guess I'm lucky that the 8k I had listed sold overnight before the price crash.

 

RIP BSP

Well if people stop selling, the few remaining sellers will have free room to seel at max price, the commodity will be in high demand, and th eprice will go up again.

So, yea.

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Posted

RIP BSP

It's almost like if you remove the energy gate from processing people process more...

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Posted (edited)

It's almost like if you remove the energy gate from processing people process more...

That doesn't really have anything to do with the values being artificially lowered. The market for BSP has been stable since before they removed the processing energy cost. The only significant drop that occurred was an initial price drop of about 100-200 silver immediately following the energy cost reduction, which soon stabilized to the price where BSP was until now. I would understand the lowering of the price if there was too much of the product on the market, but that wasn't the case here. BSP is only second to Beer in the total number of sales, with around 12 million sold.

I won't be surprised if what happened to beer happens to BSP where the price is lowered, which leads to the product losing a large amount of the people who produce it no longer doing so. It happened to Beer and where it used to be very easy to buy beer of the market in the past, you can be left waiting a while now for any to be listed since you don't make nearly as much money now which leaves people less inclined to sell instead of keeping it for themselves.

Well if people stop selling, the few remaining sellers will have free room to seel at max price, the commodity will be in high demand, and th eprice will go up again.

So, yea.

The only problem with this is that there was never a supply/demand issue that should have driven the price down so much. I have a feeling that the same thing that happened to Beer is going to happen here, where it seems to have been artificially lowered in price so supply will dry up relatively, while the demand doesn't decrease at all. Yeah you will have less issues selling for the max price now that less people are producing BSP, but you will still lose a fairly large amount of profit margin when the max price is quite a bit lower than what the average price was before adjustment. Beer's supply has never recovered, and if this stays lowered like Beer is, then I predict BSP supply won't recover either.

Edited by Sapphiron Bjartskular

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Posted (edited)

The only problem with this is that there was never a supply/demand issue that should have driven the price down so much. I have a feeling that the same thing that happened to Beer is going to happen here, where it seems to have been artificially lowered in price so supply will dry up relatively, while the demand doesn't decrease at all. Yeah you will have less issues selling for the max price now that less people are producing BSP, but you will still lose a fairly large amount of profit margin when the max price is quite a bit lower than what the average price was before adjustment. Beer's supply has never recovered, and if this stays lowered like Beer is, then I predict BSP supply won't recover either.

It's automated, if people keep going for max price and it keeps selling out, max price will keep going up until it hits the hard cap.

edit - also, you really hsould blame the players instead, i can't for the life of me understand why people would keep underselling a commodity that is not in high supply to begin with. In BDO the first cause of price crash is producers poor judgement.

Let's take fire flake flowers. When i started i could go for 3.8k/µ. Soon, someone started to figure they could sell too. Immediately they started selling at min price. And then anyone following kept selling at min price in order to sell their pityfull stacks first. Blame the players, really

 

 

Edited by muscarine

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Posted

That doesn't really have anything to do with the values being artificially lowered.

But the price didn't artificially lower, it lowered because people kept undercutting... The metrics that determine min and max price are altered by trends on the market that cap inflation and deflation.

You also seem to be forgetting the other notable thing that has happened this week in regards to processing... namely the processing costume. Same thing happened with beer and food, people were in such a rush to race to the bottom that they tanked the price.

 

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Posted

It's automated, if people keep going for max price and it keeps selling out, max price will keep going up until it hits the hard cap.

edit - also, you really hsould blame the players instead, i can't for the life of me understand why people would keep underselling a commodity that is not in high supply to begin with. In BDO the first cause of price crash is producers poor judgement.

Let's take fire flake flowers. When i started i could go for 3.8k/µ. Soon, someone started to figure they could sell too. Immediately they started selling at min price. And then anyone following kept selling at min price in order to sell their pityfull stacks first. Blame the players, really

 

 

I would agree with you usually, but in the case of BSP the amount that was ever listed for significantly lower than the market average was so small compared to the total amount listed that it shouldn't ever have an effect this large, especially with a product that sold at such a high rate. 2k below the average out of 20k listed shouldn't crash a market.

Its the combination of things like this that makes me suspect an artificial price reduction. Especially when at this point people almost exclusively sell Beer at max list price, yet the price has stayed lowered for a long period of time now. If Beer had rebounded I could believe that a player/s had intentionally crashed the market, but even then, something so dramatic happening in one night is a ridiculous change.

Unfortunately with the factors that I see, the only reason that makes much logical sense to me for a stable market that I've participated in for so long to just drop is someone who wasn't a player artificially lowering the price not the price adjustment algorithm, especially when the price adjustment algorithm in my experience has been fairly consistent with its adjustments on different items. This happening to the two most sold items in the game screams outside influence, not the algorithm.

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Posted

I would agree with you usually, but in the case of BSP the amount that was ever listed for significantly lower than the market average was so small compared to the total amount listed that it shouldn't ever have an effect this large, especially with a product that sold at such a high rate. 2k below the average out of 20k listed shouldn't crash a market.

So you monitored the market 24/7?

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Posted

So you monitored the market 24/7?

No I did not, nor did I need to. You don't have to monitor a market 24/7 to be able to tell that the vast majority of the listings for a product are in the same price range consistently. While I didn't/wasn't able to monitor the market 24/7, I did spend a large amount of time interfacing with the BSP listings considering I have sold an extremely large amount of BSP. The largest percentage of the listed items that I've ever seen that have been priced at a severe undercutting of the average is probably somewhere around 5-10%, and the market turns over BSP so quickly that they did not last for more than 10 minutes. Considering fluctuations like that happened fairly regularly for a couple months now without large changes in price, I think it's safe to say that this price change is abnormal. It doesn't make sense to me at least that a market that has over 20k items listed at a minimum of 1650 at 3am last night, would suddenly drop this hard in such a small period of time. 

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Posted

Fluctuations my friends. Fluctuations. (✿◡‿◡)

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Posted

Fluctuations my friends. Fluctuations. (✿◡‿◡)

If it really is just normal fluctuations and isn't artificial, then I'm just confused AF as to what something like this hasn't happened until now. I came to my suspicion just because right now it's what makes the most sense to me.

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Posted (edited)

Considering fluctuations like that happened fairly regularly for a couple months now without large changes in price, I think it's safe to say that this price change is abnormal. It doesn't make sense to me at least that a market that has over 20k items listed at a minimum of 1650 at 3am last night, would suddenly drop this hard in such a small period of time. 

Firstly, I don't buy that 20k items were listed at 3am last night considering a pretty large volume of them were added to the pool and it's sitting around 10k.

It shows you the average price of items on the market, and the average price for BSP is and well over half of what is currently listed is under 1.4k.

What happened was people flooded the market and dropped the price.

Edited by bakimono

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Posted

If it really is just normal fluctuations and isn't artificial, then I'm just confused AF as to what something like this hasn't happened until now. I came to my suspicion just because right now it's what makes the most sense to me.

I've done the same thing as you a while back. There's always fluctuations in the market for pretty much every hot commodities, that's how I make money effortlessly. BUY HIGH SELL LOW. (✿◡‿◡)

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Posted

Yeah I think removing energy from processing is actually healthier for the game, even though it will cause smaller prices. There are other things you can sell, but being able to actually make things nonstop is fantastic

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Posted (edited)

Firstly, I don't buy that 20k items were listed at 3am last night considering a pretty large volume of them were added to the pool and it's sitting around 10k.

It shows you the average price of items on the market, and the average price for BSP is and well over half of what is currently listed is under 1.4k.

What happened was people flooded the market and dropped the price.

You can choose not to believe it but when I got off at 3am there was 20k listed, 8k of which were listed by me.

And if flooding was the cause, then someone had to have been hoarding a ridiculous amount since large fluctuations have happened before and they didn't have effects like this.

Edited by Sapphiron Bjartskular

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Posted

You can choose not to believe it but when I got off at 3am there was 20k listed, 8k of which were listed by me.

Obviously everything everyone says on the internet is true.

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Posted (edited)

Don't worry, artificially controlled prices are a good thing for the economy...  not.

IDC about this one though cause I hate grinding crystals when I need BSP, though I suppose if the price is lowered to much I'll end up grinding them anyways when people stop posting BSP on the market...

Edited by Climhazzard

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Posted

Yeah I think removing energy from processing is actually healthier for the game, even though it will cause smaller prices. There are other things you can sell, but being able to actually make things nonstop is fantastic

When the change was first made I was pretty salty because of the amount of energy I had put into processing up to that point but I do enjoy the way it is now since I can process endlessly, especially when I use the new processing costume since I have 1020 weight limit wearing Silver Embroidered processing gear. I just wish they would have made the decision for the change sooner, so I could have better used a couple months worth of energy.

Obviously everything everyone says on the internet is true.

Well I wish I had taken a screenshot of my sale notifications so that I could at least prove that much to you. Oh well, hindsight 20/20

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Posted

Don't worry, artificially controlled prices are a good thing for the economy...  not.

IDC about this one though cause I hate grinding crystals when I need BSP, though I suppose if the price is lowered to much I'll end up grinding them anyways when people stop posting BSP on the market...

It's a double edged sword really.

On the one hand it can cause strange fluctuations, but on the other hand it stopped everything on the market from being 5-10 times more than what it is now.

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Posted (edited)

It's a double edged sword really.
On the one hand it can cause strange fluctuations, but on the other hand it stopped everything on the market from being 5-10 times more than what it is now.

In this game if the supply of something is low, and the capped price of it is also low, it rarely gets posted on the market.  In a game with a less controlled market it would get posted for 5x or 10x as much, that would make sense as it's a rare item, and people would happily pay 5x or 10x as much for it (examples being certain gems like memory or extraction, though they may be more common now).

Supply and demand will always be the final determination of prices on items in a free market, yeah players can post some shit for 100x more than what other players posted it for, but if 1000 other players are also competing to post it, the prices will still be low.  Price inflation can be controlled by controlling supply, and by not having useless events that inject extra spending money into the market.  If BDO were a free market there would be anomalies like Kzarka prices, but that's because Kzarka are very rare and are or were only obtainable by the strongest players.  Those players most likely already had their own Kzarka and would be free to post any extras they get for enormous prices that people would probably pay.  As it is now, it's basically like that anyways, you have to bid enormous amounts on rare items if you want any chance to get them, but the seller doesn't profit from the transaction like they would in a free market.

If developers didn't like seeing Kzarka being bought for extremely inflated prices (in a hypothetical free BDO market system), they would simply up the drop rates of Kzarka, change the drop system so dmg done is not a factor in loot recieved, and allow other ways to obtain them, not set a max selling price for the item.  As the item became more common it's price would naturally go down no matter how much people wanted to post them for.

Well, I'm no economist, so it's not like I'm convincing anyone a free market system is better.  The main problem I see with it how it is now, is that for the market in BDO to really work there would need to be an actual economist on their end controlling the prices, and from what I've seen so far I highly doubt that is the case.

Edited by Climhazzard

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Posted (edited)

In this game if the supply of something is low, and the capped price of it is also low, it rarely gets posted on the market.

Which is why there is a built in mechanic if something isn't posted to incrementally increase the price.

Part of the market being designed as it is also has to do with combating gold sellers FYI.

 

Well, I'm no economist, so it's not like I'm convincing anyone a free market system is better.  The main problem I see with it how it is now, is that for the market in BDO to really work there would need to be an actual economist on their end controlling the prices, and from what I've seen so far I highly doubt that is the case.

You put way too much faith in "economists" considering they are really only good at backwards analysis and pretty hit or miss at forwards analysis... there's a reason it's not recognized as a science.

Edited by bakimono

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Posted

Does it increase in price if nothing is posted? Because I've been keeping an eye on fishing boat decorations for the last few months and they are still the same.

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Posted

edit - also, you really hsould blame the players instead, i can't for the life of me understand why people would keep underselling a commodity that is not in high supply to begin with. In BDO the first cause of price crash is producers poor judgement.

 

 

 

Not everyone sells stuff to make a profit.

I personally sell everything a min price. I sell stuff so people who want it can get it as cheep as possible.

Why do people HAVE to sell stuff to make money?

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Posted

When there is nothing else to complain: pull something not important out of your ass and get all salty.

 

Success!!

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Not everyone sells stuff to make a profit.

I personally sell everything a min price. I sell stuff so people who want it can get it as cheep as possible.

Why do people HAVE to sell stuff to make money?

How do you even answer a comment like this?  I mean did you really just say you sell stuff, even at a loss, so people can buy it cheaper? LOL

How to begin even understanding this, holy crap....

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