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sad truth about end game and RNG (read especially if you're new!)

149 posts in this topic

Posted

Jouska... I don't want to be a pessimist or to quite honestly doubt, but I am quite curious. Do any of you at Daum EU(Or w/e its new official designation is) have access to the script mechanics to validate what the representative from Pearl Abyss told you? I mean in my line of work we have to actually demonstrate that changes we made to factory systems are working as intend according to the plants contract and have to have members validate that all changes made are running according to spec, be it software, hardware or otherwise.

 

Again the reason I bring this up is because in the Korean version of the game there are quite a few things we can't directly buy that would be considered "Pay to Win" and a possible method of "Griefing" certain types of people into paying more would be utilizing a "One more shot" mechanic in the game, which I can certainly understand why no one would want admit that as its akin to saying "Yes you are playing with a loaded deck, don't like here's the door"

 

I guess what I really should be asking is did they give you an in depth explanation for how the looting mechanics work? Something along the lines of

 

;Loot Script

If [plvl=+6>mlvl]

then [/u Degrade_Loot]

If [plvl=+6>mlvl]

then [/u Normal_Loot]

getpluck=x

getmrank=y

getnlevel=z

add [xyz to Normal/Degrade_Loot]

[Normal_loot]

 -Bleh item 100%

 -Meh item 20%

 -Ohh item 10%

 -yay item 5%

 -Woah item .01%

 

[Degrade_Loot]

 -No loot 75%

 -Loot 25%

  -Bleh item 100%

  -Meh item 20%

  -Ohh item 10%

  -yay item 5%

  -Woah item .01%

 (Script example is none functioning rubbish, just a short hand example)

 

You don't have to divulge company secretes but I'm curious were they upfront and professional going into detail on how the system worked or did they simply say "LUCK RANK NODE, RNG IS RNG" and give you a dismissive short answer on the matter? Profession curiosity here...

This ^, If you´re feeling that something is not right but the creators claim it to work as they said, seeing the code will help. 

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Posted

We should go and burn all PA devs, just to be sure they aren't evil witches!

 

Srsly ppl...

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Posted

I havent played for 1 month but i got 2 witches earrings in 6 hours of skeleton farming+some scroll fragments/stones.I think i was just lucky but whatever 

 

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Posted

Fair enough point, there is no way to dispute a persons beliefs, as such things are completely subjective.  With that in mind I will stick to what the creators of the game have told us, and leave the rest to more philosophical minds than myself.

The problem most people have is that the fail to understand probabilities and the the sample rates are much too small to draw solid conclusions from.  A sample size of digging in the desert of 100 times is tiny folks especially when you do not know the drop and the other factors that could be in play. 

We have  guild member that got 12 shards off his 100 plot farm one day.  He was very lucky.  He also has nothing else to do but check the farms constantly.  So his chances are much higher because he does it more.  The more the harvest the better your chances.  I got two the other morning on 28 plants.  I have gone days without getting them. 

I have heard crazy stories about horse colors coming from different stables.  Sample size a few horse.......Sorry it doesn't work like that.

I heard that you could not get shards from bugs.  I started to believe it too until........................I got one from removing bugs.  Maybe the drop rate is less for bugs than pruning?

I also am suspicious of people with amazing luck.  Generally those folks have gamed the game and generally get caught and shown the door.

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Posted

I think people need to understand the distinction between what was said and what wasn't said.

Here's what was said:

I will reiterate that there is no mechanic or code within the game that makes one character/player/account more lucky than another.  

Here's what wasn't said:

"There are no factors that influence drop rates. Therefore, you should expect to obtain the same loot at the same average rate as everyone else."

Drops can use RNG and still be modified by any of several factors. Node investment is an example of a factor that the game tells us improves the drops. GM's Blessings have a boost to the "Item Gain Chance". Your knowledge grade for the monsters you're fighting is claimed to have an effect. Other obvious potential factors that I've seen people bring up are your luck stat, the level difference between you and the monsters you're fighting, whether you're fighting them during the day or at night, and so on.

If you and another player have compared those values to ensure they're equal for all those factors that you know of, and yet you can still see differences in the probability distribution of drops that cannot be attributed to random sampling from the same distribution by different players, then what you have is evidence that there's a factor you haven't accounted for. That factor could be related to differences in stats, gear, environment, or any of several other things. 

And that's if you're being very careful and quantitative. If you're not, then all you can really say is "someone else seems to get better drops than I do, which may or may not even be a real difference."

Which is definitely all you can say from what I've seen in this thread.

 

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Posted

There seems to be a misconception that random results will be "fair". This is not the case. On the first page of this thread there was a nifty little graphic posted that showed the distribution of random results. They land in clusters, which in terms of game mechanics is not even, or fair. What people think of as "fair" would be a checkerboard pattern. In other words, the response that "eventually it will even out" is simply not true. At least, not in our lifetimes. Much less over the life of a game.

And it's worth repeating, to make matters worse, the game uses not "RNGs", but "PRNGs". Pseudo random number generators. These are given to streaking, as the OP described. When you're "hot", play the streak.

In short, adding "RNG" to a game doesn't make it balanced, or fair. It simply obscures the imbalance. A game with as many random mechanics as BDO has, has no chance to be fair. 

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Posted

Jouska has said that there is no hidden luck 

 

yet as long as i play i find this hard to believe, and trust me i do play long https://i.imgur.com/mqr4Maw.jpg as you can see by my skillpoints and i have a full boss armor set for awhile now and i did buy every single piece with tree armor costing me over 850million alone so yes, i farm a ton and i play a lot and i also see and talk to a lot of people and all that being said i still don't believe that this game has no hidden luck.

 

It doesn't matter what you call it, hidden luck or account luck or character luck or whatever thats just terminology, what im here to complain about is the so called "RNG" so focus on the point rather than the wording.

 

The point is that there are people that get drops consistently regardless of what they do and there are people that simply have to suffer by doing 400+ bosses and not getting anything while others would get 3 boss items within 200 bosses. Hell, there were people that had multiple bheg gloves within 10 days of their release, without bundles.. how the ----- is that even possible?  It's definitely not DPS based because i just straight up outdamage these people, i go 1vs10 vs said person and i kill him and the other 9 people at the same time, there is absolutely no way in heaven or hell that this guy did more damage on me on a boss yet he constantly gets more loot than i do 

,, people have made billions of free gold on bosses with minimal effort while others have had to suffer their way up through (like me) which is just unfair and demotivating and retarded as hell

I have guildmates which are so called "RNG BLESSED" people which consistently get good loot and i also have guildmates which don't get good loot, not just at 1 place but in the entire game in general.. i have a guildmate who started over a month after me and plays less and doesn't grind than me and is straight up just richer than me despite the fact that he doesn't grind that much. He's arguably richer than me without doing anything and we've known each other for years so im not really envious im just -----ing pissed off because i put effort and dedicate my own time and i end up getting jack shit while there are people that don't do much in game and end up with more due to sheer "RNG"?  HA.HA. I don't think so.

 

recently there was a patch that made it so that everyone has the same max hp/mp and we've speculated that this might also reset the hidden luck (which is obviously not the same) and since that patch i've noticed increase of drops not just for me but for everyone (as you can see on world bosses , a lot more stuff drops for people and that started with the patch that reset the max HP). I actually got a boss item drop after so long like seriously we did it.. or so i thought. Decided to gamble because thats absolutely the only way you progress with gear and what would you know? I've failed so much that for the past 1 month i probably threw away about 2billion of silver to RNG and i literally don't have ANYTHING more than i did before except a whale earring (but i already had a duo witch before so+ 100 hp i guess ..yay) 

Anyway, all that being said, we thought that the reset max hp patch might've done it but nope, the RNG blessed people in my guild are getting 5+ shards per dig session and some have reached a whooping 9 per session and for the same time/energy i get 1 hard shard on average and as you can see on that screenshot i was digging, 350~ energy used so far and 0 shards.

(as an example in general/ dont take as a singular case) Yesterday i used 460 or so energy and i got 1 hard while guildmate next to me got 6 shards and this happens every time all the time. I went to grind on crescent shrine for about 6-7 hours yesterday and   after i stopped farming he had over 15 shards  which nets him about 70million which is probably 50mil more than the money i made over at crescent because valencia and RNG drops lol pls 

people in my guild can make 40mil+ almost every day by doing nothing but gathering and i cant make 40mil by gathering even in a -----ing week unless i get a bunch of better sessions (which is still less than 5 shards in total and almost never happens). I have a valk in my guild lvl 56 with 800 skill points that never grinds that gets insane amount of money by just shoveling and has a tet weapon and full tri  gear , meanwhile i can't even begin to imagine attempting tet weapon yet.. 

 

thing is, this game's RNG is rigged as hell and is not real rng regardless of what casual plebster whiteknights that dont farm/play the game would say on the forum and i doubt jouska or anyone from the staff would actually admit there is hidden luck even if they knew that (and they might just not know, hell even pearl abyss may not know at this point) 

 

You're ____ literally ____ trading your life for this game and in the end the game laughs at you and spits at you with its hidden bullshit that's not real RNG. The one thing we all agree on (rng blessed people and unlucky ones) is that loot seems to drop in waves and if you're "in the zone" you'll be getting drops and you can even predict it despite the game's rng being ridiculous. I've only realized im in the zone once.. i was farming skeletons (on my way back from valencia) and i was getting insane amount of loot so i got up on my horse rode to ogres killed 3 ogres and i got an ogre ring despite me farming them 250h before that and eventually giving up and not going back to ogres for month+, then i got a witch earring from 1 bundle and if i didnt relog cus i didnt think clearly id probably get a ton more stuff that night 

the rng in this game is just rigged as hell

in my today's session i did 450 energy 1 shard, my guildmate got a whooping 12 

how the ----- are we supposed to compete with people that get free money from the game over and over and over and over again? ?

 

And you know, at the start we thought that enchanting is unaffected by this rigged RNG but 1 month into this game there were people in the bigger guilds with 4X rings/earrings at TRI enchant like literally one month after the game started when i was still with +0, there were people in bigger guilds (multiple people not just one) with full tri accessories are you kidding me with that shit? 

Some guy says to get a tri you need 60 rings on average and back at that time theres no way people had access to even 20 rings/earrings but from inside sources in their guilds i know that most of them succeeded with less than 2 fails for entire sets of gear

 

and now comes the biggest problem - TET/PEN gear. What's the point of competing with anyone or even playing the damn game if you meet someone with a rigged char, not even a lucky guy, that just straight up outgears you? I mean i don't even mind that much in 1v1 but in any thing more (and this game is mainly more) it's just annoying and retarded as hell. I see a guy getting TET and 10 min later i meet him in red battlefield or node war or whatever ? 

I meet this random ass guy in arena he tells me "I get one shard per 40 energy and im gonna try tet soon" meanwhile i was grinding for 10h a day and i barely managed to get tri and i have 0 resources to attempt tet and i get no shards whatsoever so if i wanted to attempt tet id have to throw countless of millions on shards, which would be fine if it was the same for everyone but then you get people like my guildmate who get 30 shards for 2 days in which i get 2 shards. This isnt a small samplesize either cus we're like this for months now

... and yeah, i used to say 8 AP isnt much with enchanted gear but that was before we knew accuracy is a hidden stat and that enchanting armors also gives evasion. Now we know how this works and a TET item not only has higher attack and defense but it also has higher accuracy and evasion which is huge ..- - - and like i said, it's not unbeatable in 1v1 but this game is not 1v1. What if i do 1v3 vs people with tet while im with tri ? Not like getting tet requires any skill or preparation or knowledge either.. 

 

This isn't a rant about bad luck - this is a rant about the game being unfair and unequal to different players and one way or another there is something (call it whatever you want) that rigs this game so hard to the point where its just a mockery of human lives

 

and lastly, if you're a new player and you're afraid you won't catch up - just talk to people do some research and figure out if your account is lucky or not, if you're lucky you'll not only catch up but surpass people and if you're generally unlucky ( try to judge clearly and fairly not emotionally and with a small sample size) you might as well quit or just farm countless of hours a day to buy your gear.. 

 

made a post about the rng, it got deleted. feels good man.

for the past month i havent been playing the game but bed gather bed gather bed gather. Now its bed night vendor bed night vendor.

 

guess waht havent paid off.

at this point i dont even feel like playing the game let alone even THINK about spending money on this bs.

i just log on bed routine and open another game.

cheers for the next best mmo dont fall for that pre order shit!

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Posted

TL:Sadly Did R: I have no understanding of what RNG means so here is a wall of text whining about how it is rigged against me.

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Posted

Technical clarification:   Same Base chance is not the same as having the same RNG Seed.  All characters can NEVER be created equal because they're all assigned different enumeration orders in the RNG queue. 

 

Now if Daum was REALLY interested in fixing this, they would re-evaluate the Fail-Stack system to only take 10-20 failstacks per success rather than resetting EVERYONE back to ZERO on EVERY SUCCESS.  IOW:  Consistently Unlucky players like you and me, are penalized way more than consistently lucky players by the FailStack system that was in theory supposed to break consistent bad luck streaks.  But currently the main thing it does is consistently break bad luck streaks for lucky players while the rest of us can still go over 30 failstack on every PRI we attempt. (I'm up to 35+ right now).

Daum could FIX THIS tomorrow by just making a PRI success only remove 10 fail credits from our Stack and 20 from a Duo success while letting us retain stacks in excess to that coefficient

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Posted (edited)

Skip RNG as much as possible and just buy everything. Thats how you win BDO.

Sleep in beds when AFK for max NV tries.... Pray to AH Genie you can out snipe Boss Gear off AH, which is impossible. I've had the input "22" twice now and still got out sniped, even pre-ordered a pair of Bheg gloves that got sold on the AH. The RNG of the boss drops is terrible, many times walking away with nothing from zarka (1 person got Shrine Guardian Token, while everyone else got nothing). If you can grind for 3 days and  make enough money to buy Boss gear then it should not be so hidden by the RNG wall that it is. Yet it's what keeps us playing. 

Edited by PierrePiarre

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Posted

But without copious amounts of bullshit RNG the players will quickly find out that the game they're playing is completely lacking in originality and innovation... Among other things. 

Wait hold on.. so you're saying that bullshit rng behind every little thing you do in BDO is an original and innovative way of game design? :P

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Posted (edited)

RNG sucks and I've spent hundreds of millions trying to TRI a single piece, but as long as PA/Kakao sticks to their guns and continues to say "It's just RNG", nothing is going to change. 

My bhegs gloves were like that. I received a 65/55/45/45/65/40 stack on them before they finally went TRI on a 37 stack. I still have most of those stacks sitting on my chars. Yesterday, I tried to get my alts offhand to PRI. It took me 21 shards total, each starting at 15 stacks and stopping at 27. It then took me another 11 shards to get to DUO, and that was a green base item. I've failed TRI liverto on that char over a dozen times as well. 

Then I see -----ers in my guild literally one shot their kzarka weapons from 15->TET on 15-30 failstacks, or get two pieces of TET boss armor on 35 stacks each. The same guy who literally one shot every single one of his duo accessories. Lucky as -----.

Edited by Walk

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Posted

Failed 6 times PRI liverto, failed 11 times DUO liverto... 18 and 30 base minimum for each...

Then i see crafting destroyed by value pack, so i wonder how will i fund the RNG from now on...

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Posted

I don't think it's rigged, just that some people are full of shit and exaggerate how lucky they are. Watching other people dig next to me in the desert I think everyone's getting close to an average of 1 shard every 150-250 energy. Some people are embarrassed of how much they play the game so they pretend they got good gear just by being very lucky instead of nolifing.

No, I've heard guildies get S rank on ogres and an ogre ring within the first 3 mobs they killed (during their black spirit quest asking them to kill ogres). Meanwhile our guild leader has been farming them for months and has yet to get one.

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Posted

You know what it could be? A random number generator uses a mathematical equation to generate a seemingly random (unpredictable) string of numbers for use in software. What if BDO uses the client's computer to generate the random number instead of the actual server doing it? Not all computers have the same RNG seed, so that might explain the discrepancy between people's experience with RNG. There probably isn't hidden account luck, but perhaps the way BDO uses your computer's local random number generator affects the outcome of game events differently for people.

Just a thought!

I despise mmo's that have the server query the client for luck modifiers. It leave a gaping hole that can be exploited. Luckily bdo doesn't have client side hacks.

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Posted

Lol you lost me when i saw your boss armor... Went to every boss fight I could find. Played this shit religiously and haven't missed a single boss scroll daily and weekly. Farmed scrolls with little drops just to add to the already shit returns i received from the dailies. I have none..... when you talk about shit RNG I feel like you truly don't feel the pain there is at the bottom. I recorded every single roll I made on the black market vendor and while most of my guildies talk about seeing 1 or 2 boss armor in around 40 rolls a piece. I'm at 248 rolls with no boss armor. Sounds like you are in the middle and should be happy you don't fall into RNG hell.

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Posted

I'm very LUCKY I don't have to deal with all these people crying and theorycrafting on a daily basis.

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Posted

I feel the same as the op. My friend and I created our accounts next to each other, yet he has way better luck than me. I have to work so much harder to get anything in this game than he does and it is very frustrating. I had him play on my account while I played on his, got 2 witch earrings in 1 hour, while he was praying of getting 1 relic shard in the same time on my account. Whatever they say about how there is no hidden luck or better rng for some accounts compared to others, I feel that is a complete lie. From all that I have heard, all that I have experienced, some people have everything handed to them like my friend, and others like me, have to work so much harder to get anything remotely close to them. The things is, I bought this game to play, not to work. The game itself is amazing, the RNG though, is something else.

That's it, I play games for fun, not work. Accomplishment is important, but needs to be fair. Level 50 is a bummer. Four days grinding and made 1/6 of a level. Not fun.

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Posted

 

That's it, I play games for fun, not work. Accomplishment is important, but needs to be fair. Level 50 is a bummer. Four days grinding and made 1/6 of a level. Not fun.

Depending on the hours spend in those days, u are doing it wrong. Look around and find the best way to lvl. If that is your current focus.

Also would like to thank Daum for boosting my luck. Had 4 sharps and 2 hards yesyerday were normally I get 2 hards. Sharp every few days. :P

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Posted (edited)

I can understand the frustration but as a spender myself I can say (only speaking for me... of course) that the amount of real world money I spend absolutely does not equal success, in my case. It's easy to point at someone "lucky" and say they spent money and now get better drops etc, it's harder to accept that sometimes luck just sucks... most especially in a game that relies FAR more heavily on RNG than most of us Western gamer's are used to.

It's also easy to conflate an in game Luck mechanic with the existence of a 'hidden' Luck mechanic. If it were true, then I assure you I be getting the mega drops and not having an experience very similar to yours. I too seem to go on drop runs then completely dry up  for what seems like days.

This kinda makes me think of the Mandela Effect, its completely subjective to the memory and experiences of the individual and may have nothing to do with fact.

Anyhooser, that's my 10 pennys.

Edited by Nimander
spelling

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Posted

I used to be a daytrader for about 15 years in the past. Stock market/options/currencies can easily be considered huge casinos for the people that lack the tools, knowledge and information to analyze them properly.

Yet, I have seen people with zero prerequisites doing better than pros. I have seen people with literally the touch of Midas, making money out of everything they touch for years and years and still not being sure how to set an entry stop market order properly.

I met a guy that was making more money betting on stocks, via betting websites, than his professional broker friend. Ignorance of proper risk reward strategies combined with consistent luck...

In any case in an infinite universe, one of 10^35 iirc, even the most improbable things are bound to happen. And just being (un)lucky in an mmo is nothing really, considering the big picture. Some people will be lucky all their lives, some will live for mere seconds.

Luck is a zero total sum universally, but this has little value when viewed through the very narrow perspective of a human's experience and lifespan. We only experience a random tiny bit of the whole and that can be dramatically skewed. 

And to make things "worse", as others already mentioned, randomness, or chaos, are not behaving in a uniform ,evenly spread out manner. In fact they present a certain periodicity of events. A periodicity that is exponentially unpredictable in the future (unless maybe a proper quantum computer actually regenerates them in who knows how many centuries from now).

So, try to be happy with what u have, randomness is only fair at a level far beyond an individual's experience. If it wasn't, "luck" would not even be a word. And we would be missing all these wonderful tinfoil theories.. A friend of mine, serious poker player, still believes that changing the orientation of his lighter on the table actually influences his luck in the game... Btw tinfoiling is a documented animal behavior too, recreating initial conditions for achieving repeatable outcomes is in our DNA.  

 

thats deep man.

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Posted

Most people incorrectly assumes that true randomness is evenly spread out; actually, true randomness tends to have clusters of events. Here's an image from Wikipedia (Clustering Illusion) showing that as the number of random points increase, we tend to think it's not random because of the cluster. Generally, people underestimate the variability of a truly random sampling. So tl;dr: your friend does not have hidden "luck" stats, this is just how randomness work. We just underestimate it.  

RandomPoints.gif


Now onto BDO.  Most game developers do not implement true randomness but a variation of it such that is appears random but "luck" still evenly spread out among the player base. This is generally to avoid an issue call the "Runaway Leader Problem" where lucky players will advance faster and runaway from the rest of the playerbase. This is generally a poor game design, which is why "catch-up mechanisms" are often introduced in games to avoid this issue. Currently, BDO suffers immensely from the "Runaway Leader Problem" in part due to the pace in which contents has been released. 3 years of game content in little over half a year means that people who are initially lucky are at a great advantage.  Leaders tend to want more content so they can maintain their lead while laggards (casual players) are dropping out of the game like flies. 

(Aside: The problem is further exasperated by the information advantage that a few top guilds had over the rest of the population.)

 

This makes so much sense. More people should read this.

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Posted (edited)

I remember months ago all the conspiracy theorists said they would stop if Daum confirms. Here's Jouska confirming there's no voodoo in the code and they're still in disbelief. Kek.

Edited by Featherine

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Posted

I dont know how its rigged but its not RNG for sure.  Its like they turn drops on and off as they please.  I farm Hexe for earrings and shards 15-20 hours at a time and one day you get 10 earrings an 40-50 shards and few days later 0 earrings and 0 relics..... no one can be this lucky/unlucky. 

People that farm a lot can see these patterns on pretty much everything.    One day Mane elites would give you 200 Krea shields and the next day they are all replaced by black stones.

I dont know what triggers such dramatic changes in loot but something does and its not RNG

Yes, it is.

This has been explained by several of us in this thread, but it's obviously falling on deaf ears. Let me try one more time:

RNG is more unfair than P2W.

Now, if that could become the next widely spread gaming meme, maybe we'd see some improvements. But as long as people cling to their mistaken belief that randomness means everyone has an equal chance, we're going to have threads like this and unhappy gamers.

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Posted (edited)

I remember months ago all the conspiracy theorists said they would stop if Daum confirms. Here's Jouska confirming there's no voodoo in the code and they're still in disbelief. Kek.

He also has said in the past that there wasn't randomized stats. Also made claims of being able to get master cooking in a couple days making only beer if there was no energy requirement. He also says they will not answer it. If they won't, where'd he get the answer from. Also base chance is just that. They could throw in so many unknowns on top of that and have it paint a very different picture in game than the base chance says.

Edited by Noth

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