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550 muskan bundles and nothing?!

57 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

You are thinking like: I have 550 bundles so i should have a 100% drop chance.

No it doesn't work that way.

For each bundle you have a 0,3% chance. so 550 bundles is still 0,3% chance. it's not that 10bundles= 3% chance and 100 bundles= 30% chance.

it's 0,3% chance and each bundle counts like that.

ye look at what u said and I think u right, he should expect least 2 pair of muskan shoes at least for 550 bundles, such bummer right? lel

Edited by spandy

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Posted

bought for 194m pre-order. Funny thing was... some guy had 300m pre-order and mine was the one that won... rng!

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Posted

Got my muskans from first ever weekly scroll since I was taking tree before. Straight drop and got those babies to TRI in less than 40 frags. feelsgoodman.

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Posted

spend around 12k energy and only saw 2 wrong kzarka weapons on the NV while other ppl saw a full boss set, dandalion weapons and so on in 2 weeks....

Could you please elaborate those dandelions ? They are on NV ? If yes, only for already awakened classes ?

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Posted (edited)

Could you please elaborate those dandelions ? They are on NV ? If yes, only for already awakened classes ?

sure atm you could get the sorcs, warriors or berserkers awakening weapon on the NV

Edited by Myssy
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Posted

You could do like the majority of us have done after being in your shoes. Buy them on the Market.

yah majority..... the whole 50 pairs sold on the server half of them going to the bid machine where rng is there as well ...cmon now good suggestion

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Posted

Could you please elaborate those dandelions ? They are on NV ? If yes, only for already awakened classes ?

Yup so far you can only find dandelion for warrior,sorc,zerker and more will be avaible once their class awakening is released

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Posted (edited)

ye look at what u said and I think u right, he should expect least 2 pair of muskan shoes at least for 550 bundles, such bummer right? lel

If you're going to be sarcastic at least...do math right.

it means that he had a decent chance, but not getting a drop is fairly possible. 80% ish is still 1/5 ish of "nots", which 1/5 you can't do math threads, hey that sounds about right??.

If  he opened 1000 bundles, then it would be 95% chance of getting it which would be insane.

Edited by Kuu

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Posted

spend around 12k energy and only saw 2 wrong kzarka weapons on the NV while other ppl saw a full boss set, dandalion weapons and so on in 2 weeks....

With the bundles its the same some have luck and some dont. if i remember right somewhere is a statement of a GM (maybe jouska) that the chance to get an bossitem from the bundles is 0.3% ....thats not rly high ^^

So at the end its always rng and it su.cks sometimes!

I have spend over 100k now since hes in our version and didnt see a kzarka for my class or bhegs not even once xD

Luckly i got both of those items now but still - how the ----- 

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Posted

I have spend over 100k now since hes in our version and didnt see a kzarka for my class or bhegs not even once xD

Luckly i got both of those items now but still - how the ----- 

ok that tops it ^^ i feel with you ;)

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Posted

bought for 194m pre-order. Funny thing was... some guy had 300m pre-order and mine was the one that won... rng!

Any proof that he gives 300kk in preorder?

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Posted

Chance of not getting the boots = 99.7%. Chance of not getting the boots from 500 bundles:  99.7%^500 = 22.26%. Chance of getting at least one set of boots when you open 500 bundles: 100% - 22.26% = 77.74%

And here goes that person without any math knowledge or logic... :D

Sure , if u say so genius 

:) 

Not sure why I'm chiming in here... it's more of a definition problem.

The chance of getting muskan boots from every box is 0.3% (or whatever it is).  That will not change, not unless someone goes into the code and changes it.  Whether you open up 1, 10 or 10k bundles.

The probability of you getting your muskan boots increases with every bundle, hence the 1 - (0.997 ^ X) where X = the amount of attempts you do.

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Posted

 

 

Not sure why I'm chiming in here... it's more of a definition problem.

The chance of getting muskan boots from every box is 0.3% (or whatever it is).  That will not change, not unless someone goes into the code and changes it.  Whether you open up 1, 10 or 10k bundles.

The probability of you getting your muskan boots increases with every bundle, hence the 1 - (0.997 ^ X) where X = the amount of attempts you do.

It's all in the wave function dude, it's in your mind... *passes joint*B|

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Posted

FML, Patrigo being a little -----...

 

.eJwNykEOwiAQAMC_cC_sAruUfsDEkz8whBLapJUG1pPx7zrn-ah3P9SiNpFrLMas-8itr3pI66kWXVurR0nXPnRup0kiKW9neckwFhwHIsdkI7K1Hox1OAMxOx-9B[1].jpg

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Posted

You guys...aren't very good at math, are you...?

 

The numbers can be crunched quite easily assuming the variables are right. It doesn't make them very friendly, but the numbers there's less about RNG and more about the shear difficulty.

Assuming the chance is .3% the probably of a drop out of 500 bundles 77%

Forthose that don't believe in math they probably buy lottery every week to get scammed by their government.

doesn't work that way in a RNG programmed videogame, only in your brain.

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Posted

doesn't work that way in a RNG programmed videogame, only in your brain.

This.  Your probability increases, but probability really doesn't mean shit.  You could probably get one, doesn't mean you will.

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Posted

wait for awakened boss scrolls, the odds gets better :>

not really.

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Posted

Why does boss armor have to have such a low drop?  To put this in perspective if 110 scrolls were obtained solely via the weekly quest this would be over 2 years with nothing.

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Posted

I played this game since NA/EU release and still haven't seen Muskan's Shoes drop for anyone in my scroll group. Not from boss or from bundle.

So farming scrolls is probably the slowest possible method of obtaining the shoes(sadly). Just think about it. How often do you see a global message that someone got Muskan's Shoes from bundle or boss lol?

I got mine ages ago from nightvendor. Patrigio have offered them to me around 10 times by now, with various prices.

 

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Posted

Dont worry OP, im playing since headstart several hours per day im 500+GS and still :

1. NV shits on me, never seen dim armor there

2. Preorders ignoring me too

3. 0 drops

While my friends which plays 4 months are full boss gear being lucky sniping/getting drops. 

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Posted

Thats black desert bullshit RNG for you. I have been playing since July, never dropped any boss armor from scrolls. Although I uninstalled the game right after Dark Knight awakening came out. 40,43,50,55 failstack for going +14 Dande then 67 stack for +15. That shit is for actual no lifers who spend 4-6+ hours a day grinding, casual players should play something else that is actually enjoyable.

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Posted

seriously spent a month farming the shrine warriors getting 110 monastery leaders for 550 muskan bundles. you should seriously give an aura per bundle or even an aura per boss fight with muskan for shoes or something. this is absurd. night vendor rate is horrid as ive spent over 5000 energy the past few weeks on him and he keeps offering dreadful deals on blackstones. wtf wants 1 million silver black stone armors!? please for the love of god give auras for muskans

Welcome to Vegas!

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Posted

You guys...aren't very good at math, are you...?

 

The numbers can be crunched quite easily assuming the variables are right. It doesn't make them very friendly, but the numbers there's less about RNG and more about the shear difficulty.

Assuming the chance is .3% the probably of a drop out of 500 bundles 77%

Forthose that don't believe in math they probably buy lottery every week to get scammed by their government.

Yep. To be more precise, that chance would be "at least 1 drop".

But you must also keep in mind, that even with 99%, that means that out of 100.000 players, there will statistically be 1000 players that never get anything. It's not unusual that one of those 1000 players goes to forum and post.

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Posted

Yep. To be more precise, that chance would be "at least 1 drop".

But you must also keep in mind, that even with 99%, that means that out of 100.000 players, there will statistically be 1000 players that never get anything. It's not unusual that one of those 1000 players goes to forum and post.

Regardless of the probability math it's over 2 years of normal game play with no item to show for it.

Now I've spent quite a bit of money on the game already, so PA could probably give a damn at this point if I stay or not; not to mention I have above average gear and luck, so I'm not hurting for anything.  However after reading this I'm really questioning my desire and morality in playing this game.  The rng parameters (not just muskan) just aren't reasonable and overall promote game addiction to the extreme.

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Posted

Regardless of the probability math it's over 2 years of normal game play with no item to show for it.

Now I've spent quite a bit of money on the game already, so PA could probably give a damn at this point if I stay or not; not to mention I have above average gear and luck, so I'm not hurting for anything.  However after reading this I'm really questioning my desire and morality in playing this game.  The rng parameters (not just muskan) just aren't reasonable and overall promote game addiction to the extreme.

Not sure what your expectations are. Whenever there are very low chances, you might never get it. It's obvious that in BDO there are quite a few very low-chance mechanics, shouldn't take more than a week to notice that. What took you so long?

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