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Is RNG making people despair and leave?

847 posts in this topic

Posted

AP jump from TRI to TET/PEN on awakening weapons is huge. Offhands are little less, but still. And people always seem to forget that you can literally make silver with artisans memories. That silver will then be used for whatever upgrade there is for sale.

 

Usually people who defend artisans memories for not being P2W haven't reached full TRI boss gear, and haven't been to TET casino yet. Once you reach there, you will realize the name of the game.

Stormy weather, the tinfoil holds! Actual factual numbers please. Otherwise same as:

prophet-of-doom.jpg

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Posted (edited)

You basically have 3 times more silver to use for repairs, easy isn't it? 3 times more attempts to upgrade your gear, still easy?

You can buy boss gear from marketplace, upgrade them for 3x times less cost, and sell them. Easy? Not really hard math.

And I always talk about the average attempts. The only way RNG should be discussed.

 

Ok here is a link for you, simple example, since it seems you haven't been to any probability math classes: https://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/. Just replace the word "drop" with a word "upgrade".

Edited by Miki

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Posted

You basically have 3 times more silver to use for repairs, easy isn't it? 3 times more attempts to upgrade your gear, still easy?

You can buy boss gear from marketplace, upgrade them for 3x times less cost, and sell them. Easy? Not really hard math.

And I always talk about the average attempts. The only way RNG should be discussed.

 

Ok here is a link for you, simple example, since it seems you haven't been to any probability math classes: http://ask.metafilter.com/133006/Calculating-Probability-Over-Several-Attempts

Again, Casino's love folks with that level of reasoning.

Yes, eventually you will probably succeed, and being able to spend less silver to repair means you can try more often. But they don't even sell us the items yet that give FS, and even those wouldn't be PTW because even with max FS TET is still just 25% chance for a blue item, assuming our only datamined chart is correct.

This game is very much pay for convenience, it is very much NOT PTW, especially due to the limit on weekly silver for selling pearl items, and the fact there is nothing in the pearl shop that lets you "win" when facing an opponent.

Artisans just make money for the company, and don't get me wrong, the company needs to make money or our game goes away.

But none of this changes the fact that for every person who gets lucky and makes a TET or PEN, there are many others who continuously fail.

Just like a slot machine in a casino, sure, if you keep plugging in quarters, sooner or later you will hit a jackpot, but for each person who does, many more do not. 

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Posted (edited)

Well, that is big enough reason to not play a game, where gear is literally only endgame, where gear literally means everything in PVP. For me, and many many other players. 

It is just sad that new players don't realize these cash-grab mechanics, until they arrive to the end-game enchanting. 

Edited by Miki

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Posted

Yeah, I'm enjoying the game again by not trying enhancing, just buying off MP when something is available and I get lucky, but I don't PvP or Node war, 178/160/260 just doesn't cut it.

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Posted

Yeah, I'm enjoying the game again by not trying enhancing, just buying off MP when something is available and I get lucky, but I don't PvP or Node war, 178/160/260 just doesn't cut it.

what if i told you that you could be in early 200s/200s/260 with just cheap accessories :D

basically. i came back recenly, pretty much bought all my gear from the AH untill recently

i was 195/189/230 with TRI liverto from AH, TRI blue ulti awakening, TRI ap offhand, all bought from silver i made.

accessories are PRI MOSes, Duo Blue corals, Duo Seraps, Duo Belt of shultz., all bought from AH long time ago.

thing is, people ENCHANT to make money. Risky enchanting but very rewarding, and those with the lucky fingers go for it

up to DUO BIS accessoires are put up on the AH multiple times daily. Duo Blue grade accessories are put up like all day.

with DUO MOSes, TRI blue coral, DUO tree and DUO seraps im at 205/199/230. all bought from AH

now im going for armour so i can go to the hard stuff in valencia. but with those stats, I do very well with my class in tier 1 node wars.

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Posted

RNG isn't bothering me too much. The fact that this game will no longer run for more than a freaking minute at a time without freezing is. I would like to actually be able to y'know... PLAY THE DAMN GAME!

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Posted

Your % change of success never gets higher no matter how many artisan memories you buy, not sure how you do not get that, they do not ever give you a guaranteed chance of any tier, they just let you repair for less, so you can try again.

Talk to the people who have failed TRI 12 times in a row, using appropriate FS.  Artisan memories just let them get back sooner to try again.

Plus of course you have to have or go grind out the mem frags or spare boss gear to use with the artisan memory, but that's beside the point that they do 0 to change your chance of success.

Casinos love people who think they are DUE a win just because of how many times they have lost.  Why do you think they give free money to play at the tables? To get you to spin the wheel, roll the dice, or turn the cards another time and lose more to them.

I wish ppl would stop using this argument about artisans every time... You and the guy you quoted are technically both right so I dont see any reason to bring this up every time some1 shouts Artisan memory, its redundant.

  • Does artisan memories increase your success chance on EACH enchanting attempt? No.
  • Does more enchanting attempts increase your chance of success? Yes.

Maybe im naive but I think that most ppl have a basic grasp on how probability works in cases such as this and specifying exactly what artisan memories does in every thread they are brought up shouldnt be needed.

 

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Posted

The only reason why they have RNG is because money and they have no other content.  This game goal is to grind so you can grind even more. 

 

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Posted

I wish ppl would stop using this argument about artisans every time... You and the guy you quoted are technically both right so I dont see any reason to bring this up every time some1 shouts Artisan memory, its redundant.

  • Does artisan memories increase your success chance on EACH enchanting attempt? No.
  • Does more enchanting attempts increase your chance of success? Yes.

Maybe im naive but I think that most ppl have a basic grasp on how probability works in cases such as this and specifying exactly what artisan memories does in every thread they are brought up shouldnt be needed.

 

Something that lets you roll the dice more often does not increase your chance of winning.  You will lose in the long run for an eventual win.  But every time you roll the dice you are 25% chance on a blue for TET at max fs.  That never changes.

Lets face it, technically you could go from BASE to PEN with 0 FS and 5 conc stones.

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Posted

Even though your chance on each single attempt always remains the same, the probability of upgrading over the course of multiple attempts increases. Is it REALLY that hard to get it? Using artisans memories, you will get to have 3x more attempts vs. non-paying player. Based on average RNG, which is the only way to discuss these things.

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Posted

Something that lets you roll the dice more often does not increase your chance of winning.

According to probability mathematics it does.

And as others have stated already its beneficial to use average values when discussing random mechanics.

 

What you seem to be doing is counting fails vs successes and in that regard any additional amount of attempts does only bring the result closer to the average value rather than higher chance of success.

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Posted

What I'm doing is counting people leaving because they end up weaker after hours of work than stronger, or at least staying the same.

They can go through 100's of millions to get a single TRI, much less TET, unless very lucky.

If they would remove degrade alone that would solve a lot of the problem.

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Posted (edited)

Yes, that would be awesome. Would definitely bring me back to the game.

But on the other hand, the income from artisans memories would go down, a lot.

That kind of changes are never going to happen. State of this P2W stuff is extremely bad, actually even worse than Korea, where there's a 300$ limit per week, due to it being a law there.

Edited by Miki

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Posted

You cant spend that much here due to the 5 item rule.

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Posted (edited)

Wrong. Artisans memories have no limit. Buy as much as you like, enchant stuff for cheap as much as you like. Sell them for some nice silver as much as you like. Not P2W? 

Edited by Miki

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Posted

No, because again, AM's do NOT allow you to succeed in enhancing, they repair failures. Buy AM's does not guarantee you any silver income, its a dice roll crap shoot.

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Posted (edited)

Not that again, please... You really should learn some probability mathematics. I mean REALLY.

Besides own gear, it is a fact that whales are making a ton of silver just by upgrading livertos/boss gear with artisans memories, and selling them.

Edited by Miki
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Posted

Yes, that would be awesome. Would definitely bring me back to the game.

But on the other hand, the income from artisans memories would go down, a lot.

That kind of changes are never going to happen. State of this P2W stuff is extremely bad, actually even worse than Korea, where there's a 300$ limit per week, due to it being a law there.

It would take more than just eliminating degrade-on-fail alone. That's part of the progression balance, and it would need to be countered with a higher cost somewhere.

 

I suggested before, and still suggest, that what would work is to :

  1. Eliminate degrade on fail
  2. Let failstacks increase up to 100% success
  3. Track failstacks to individual pieces of gear; i.e., you can only get a higher failstack for your main-hand by failing on that specific mainhand item.

I think this would still be hard, and remove the worst "IHTFG" moments.

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Posted

No, because again, AM's do NOT allow you to succeed in enhancing, they repair failures. Buy AM's does not guarantee you any silver income, its a dice roll crap shoot.

Although this subject has been discussed to death, some people fail to realize the meaning of a probability or percentage of success.

When an outcome(success) of an event(enhancing) has a probability of 0.25 or 25% it means that over a large enough sample of events, the outcomes will be normally distributed at a ratio 3:1 (3 failures : 1 success). In this game, events (enhancing attempts) cost silver or play time(to get resources to enhance with and also repair with). A player that heavily invests in Artisan's Memories multiplies the sample of events to the extent of his/her real money available capital. He/she does this because he/she needs less resources, which equals to more silver and/or time gained.

This fact allows said player to enjoy a real 0.25 probability of success a lot faster a lot more consistently than a f2p player who in the meantime is prone to lighter or heavier deviations from a normal distribution of outcomes due to smaller number of events. In other words a f2p player can be luckier or unluckier in the short term and will need a lot more time to reach any kind of consistent results (as he/she is limited by available play time to get resources on a practical level), whereas the Artsan Memories user will get there faster and enable him/herself to practically, and each time, take a well calculated risk with a calculated cost and a calculated profit by selling the successful outcomes and becoming richer faster in game. The richer you get the less limited by actual play time you are because you can buy/preorder everything off the market and actually use money you earned by using this procedure to do so. It's like a positive feedback loop which in this case is limited by real money, enchanting time and market demand/prices.

A player that buys 10 Artisan Memories may enjoy a minor benefit (if at all) compared to a player that buys none. But a player that buys 1,000 or 10,000 Artisan Memories will enjoy the benefits I describe above and actually convert real money to silver at the rate he/she wishes to spend real money for (and the time to enchant of course). The value of the conversion ratio silver/money is subjective and some may find it reasonable while others will not. Some will use it, others won't bother. But it is there if one is willing to take advantage of it.

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Posted (edited)

Thank you for posting that, I was too lazy to type all that, because I really thought people would understand. It is just sad when people claim Korean version (300$ monthly limit due to law) to be P2W, when our version (limitless artisans memories) is even worse. Thanks to one pearl shop item. First we have to pay for the game, then they implement something like this. 

Edited by Miki

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Posted

You cant spend that much here due to the 5 item rule.

Yeah no mate. You can buy as much as you'd like, You're thinking of the mp posting rule.

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Posted

 

Artisans play a fairly minor role in the whole Enhancement circus, especially since they cant be used for jewelry, which is where the real late game cost is.

Yeah you're not undervaluing how expensive it is to get 7 boss items to TRI, let alone TET. 

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Posted

Dear diary,

 today i tried to bring my Kzarka, Awakening and Offhand to TET.

I was joyful, had around 520M Silver, 500 Armor/Weapon Stones, 60 Hard, 40 sharp, 83 memfrags

 

After an absolute carnage, I lost items and silver valued around 600 millions, and I'm stuck with a totally destructed PRI Kzarka and a Duo offhand. At least I brought the awakening back to TRI.

This day was an absolute desaster in BDO.

 

but I will come back stronger tomorrow and my vengeance will be rightful!

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Posted

I cant believe that there are people out there arguing that artisans, inlimited supply of, aren't P2W...I know quite a few people converting those to Tri blue awakening or extra boss gear, while building their Tet stacks and then placing them on Ah...You dont wonder who buys all those blue awakenings-livertos that were in the hundrends on the market? I d say that every artisan memory equates to about 5,5m silver at the current rates....

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