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enhancement Enhancement & Failstack Costs/Strategies


69 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Update5: Uploaded.

Update4: I tried converting the calculation tool to Open Office and have also considered using SQLite, Firebird, SQLServer Express. Ultimately each solution required alot more efford than i was willing to invest (given my current motivation for all things BDO). However within the next week i will pe posting the Access (2007) file i used and a brief writeup on how to use it.

Update3: I will be taking an indefinite break from BDO. Kakaos way of handling communication and making decisions that i strongly disagree with, have left me with little desire to play BDO. I will be updating the Enhancement tables for a while longer (planned feature is an Enhancement simulator to show the effect of luck better), but i dont know for how much longer. If anyone is interested in the tool i wrote, leave a message.

Update2: I removed Cron enhancement as a suggested option and instead provided a table with Cron Stone thresholds (the maximum number of cron stones you should use/buy). Also collapsed some of the 100% steps into 1 and added a published (faster?) link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WzAeIFslcWhZ-TudUTrvt4S6ejGF8Uo5FwVqNivfHK0/pubhtml

Update: Cron and Forcing are in aswell as detailed item breakdown for upgrade. I am lacking a good amount on data on cron stone requirements tho. If you have that infro please let me know (tab Cron Cost)

Hi everyone,

The lack of proper tools (or my inability to find those) for calculating Failstacks costs, Failstack strategies and Enhancement costs and my character approaching relativistic enhancement levels (as in where stuff gets really ugly) has finally overcome my inate laziness and i have written a tool to calculate these things for me. I will not share that tool at this point, but some of the output it has generated, which some may find useful.

Disclaimer: I am not responsible for you losing your TET Ogre, because my table told you 122 stacks was enough. However i am willing to take credit for successes ;). Please also note that I am currently not accepting first borns as forms of gratitute. (this may change in the future)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WzAeIFslcWhZ-TudUTrvt4S6ejGF8Uo5FwVqNivfHK0/edit?usp=sharing

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WzAeIFslcWhZ-TudUTrvt4S6ejGF8Uo5FwVqNivfHK0/pubhtml (published, probably faster)

Please consider a few things when using these tables:

- There are no formulas in these sheets, because i did not use a spreadsheet to calculate the numbers. The whole thing runs purely on SQL atm so it can easily be ported to an app (which i wont do most likely)

- Enhancement success tables are based on whats floating around and can easily be found on the internet. At some point i will add these to the document aswell (as a reference). Based on my limited experience with clothes and jewelry i find the calculated numbers to be much higher than what i needed (they are in line with Featherines calculations https://bdomaths.wordpress.com/2016/07/19/cost-vs-scaling-mark-of-shadows-vs-crescent-guardians/ ). I will correct this if i get more accurate information on those.

- I did not include forcing. Forcing at low levels does not make much of a difference (say peanuts) and i couldnt be bothered at this point. Will be included in the future.

- Once i get data on Rods/Muskets i will include those.

- Suggested number of stacks is based on a calculated effective stack strategy (sheet2). Please note that generating stacks through upgrading gear that will be used can be alot more cost effective. The average number of Fails and Upgrade Cost is based on trying until a success (the calculation considers the higher failstack counts)

- TRI and above includes item degradation costs however it assumes you will upgrade again. Depending on the market it can be cheaper to sell the downgraded item and buy a new one.

- Calculated Craft cost is based on 100% item value, if you are self sufficient (like me) you multiply that cost with 0.65(0.845 with value pack) which is your opportuniy cost for not selling the base items at the market.

- Assumed prices for stones etc can be found inside the table and are currently (and probably for the foreseeable future) higher than market prices.

 

Depending on laziness and new information i will update these tables.

If you find any of this helpful and you play on Alustin feel free to say hi. However i will not answer questions regarding these numbers iG.

 

Svarja Wyndall / Landstreicher / Alustin

FS Calc.zip

Edited by MajorS
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Posted

Am I reading this right?

 

Colom H = Failstacks

So Grunil Duo you say 9 FS is needed?

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Based on the calculations its the most cost efficient starting point. However you can always check out sheet3 to get a full breakdown of costs aswell as calculations for all fail stack amounts up to the cap (its already sorted by cost).Grunil DUO starts at row 3670. It gives you detailed information on how the total cost comes together (i.e. enhance items like black stones, stack cost for building stacks and repair cost). It will also show how many fails on average you can expect starting at that failstack number. Keep in mind that the calculation assumes you try until success.

You may also want to check out https://bdomaths.wordpress.com/2016/07/15/demythifying-failstacks/ . It is a more wordy way of saying the same thing. In generel people tend to underestimate the cost and overestimate the effectiveness of failstacks.

 

If you happen to have lots of failstacks flying around go ahead and use them if you dont know what else to use em for. Calculations are based on creating failstacks prior to enhancing. You can also see in sheet2 that using Grunil upgrades is an efficient way of building failstacks starting at 18. So you can even start at that point, but remember then that the goal becomes fail stack raising (which means switching to a different/higher item when the stack becomes bigger). Ignore the value for Stop@Stacks for know, its experimentell and i havnt found a good way of calculating it generally.

Edited by MajorS

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Posted

I usually just

1-7 failstacks: Any +10-12 gear

7-12 Failstacks Any +13 gear, or any pri green accessory

13-17/18 Failstacks Blue or Gold +14 gear, or duo green accessories

19-28 Failstacks Blue or Gold Pri Gear

29-40 Failstacks Blue or Gold Duo Gear

41+ Too depressing to even consider...

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Posted

 

41+ Too depressing to even consider...

Im there with you. To be honest once i saw the numbers for Tet and Pen i somewhat gave up on ever attempting it myself. I will hoard silver until i can buy it in the AH from someone brave enough to handle the frustration that is BDO Enhancement at high levels.

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Posted

The failstacks for TRI are easy to get and those for TET are not that impossible.

Use my failstack values:

15FS for PRI (Stop at 21)

20FS for DUO (Stop at 29)

30FS for TRI (Stop at 45-50)

50FS for TET ( Stop at ~85)

90FS for PEN (#dontstopmenow)

As you can see, the "bad luck" acquired previously is going to be used for other attempts. Be patient and don't tilt otherwise you are done lol

 

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Posted

This is great data. I love how you found that accessory chances are double of armor/weapon.

Mind if I ask where you got the Item "Enhancements" data from? It seems like you didn't calculate it but I would very much like to know where it is from.

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Posted

This is great data. I love how you found that accessory chances are double of armor/weapon.

Mind if I ask where you got the Item "Enhancements" data from? It seems like you didn't calculate it but I would very much like to know where it is from.

My brother compiled some data on clothes (before he was banned for playing while on vacation in Japan), i also found someones data in the Horse Thread and since we have these lovely(not serious here) gambling boxes, i am able to do some research on my own. The data is not yet sufficient for exact values, but i can say with 99.999% certainty, that 15% for pri and 7.5% for duo is wrong (did a P-Value calculation).

First calculations also show craft prices to be much more in line with market prices. I will probably update these tables over the next week (once i digest Red Nose Day). It also means that it is no longer effective to build stacks past 2 with green acc.

The failstacks for TRI are easy to get and those for TET are not that impossible.

Use my failstack values:

15FS for PRI (Stop at 21)

20FS for DUO (Stop at 29)

30FS for TRI (Stop at 45-50)

50FS for TET ( Stop at ~85)

90FS for PEN (#dontstopmenow)

As you can see, the "bad luck" acquired previously is going to be used for other attempts. Be patient and don't tilt otherwise you are done lol

 

You may wanna read https://bdomaths.wordpress.com/2016/07/15/demythifying-failstacks/ . I also like how you throw around numbers without anything to back up your claims, why these would be efficient.

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Posted (edited)

Not sure if I am completely off here but I wanna take for example F6 on Sheet3 (Item Enhancement (Full)). It says the average fail is 2.8716... However, I can calculate that at a 80% fail rate, it would be an average of 1/.8=1.25 fails on average. Am I calculating something wrong here? Shouldn't we also be looking for average tries rather than average fails?

Edited by DSdavidDS

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Posted (edited)

Not sure if I am completely off here but I wanna take for example F6 on Sheet3 (Item Enhancement (Full)). It says the average fail is 2.8716... However, I can calculate that at a 80% fail rate, it would be an average of 1/.8=1.25 fails on average. Am I calculating something wrong here? Shouldn't we also be looking for average tries rather than average fails?

 

Featherine did a good job of explaining it (see link at bottom of my previous post).

Since the goal of Enhancing is ultimately to get an upgraded item the calculations are based on the assumption, that you try until it works, which in return means the last one is always a success. So the average number of tries = average number of fails + 1. However i find it important to not just say you will have to try 3.7 times on average but really get the point home that you will fail 2.7 times on average (both statements are logically equivalent, but the second gets you to think about the potential losses). It also means that p Start is only the chance for the first try, since you are building failstacks every try after that has a higher chance (also explained in link). I have build a precomputed matrix for that, which for every combination of stacks and chances and stacks per fail has that AVG FAIL value.

Edit: At a fail rate of 80% you would have success at 20% which means 1/0.2 = 5 tries on average to get a success, which means 4 Fails if higher failstacks for successive tries are not taken into account.

Edited by MajorS
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Posted

 

Featherine did a good job of explaining it (see link at bottom of my previous post).

Since the goal of Enhancing is ultimately to get an upgraded item the calculations are based on the assumption, that you try until it works, which in return means the last one is always a success. So the average number of tries = average number of fails + 1. However i find it important to not just say you will have to try 3.7 times on average but really get the point home that you will fail 2.7 times on average (both statements are logically equivalent, but the second gets you to think about the potential losses). It also means that p Start is only the chance for the first try, since you are building failstacks every try after that has a higher chance (also explained in link). I have build a precomputed matrix for that, which for every combination of stacks and chances and stacks per fail has that AVG FAIL value.

Edit: At a fail rate of 80% you would have success at 20% which means 1/0.2 = 5 tries on average to get a success, which means 4 Fails if higher failstacks for successive tries are not taken into account.

I've been reading the blogpost and I understand the concept but I can't seem to put it into equation.

 

Say the success rate is 0.05 and fail rate is 0.95.

I am supposed to sum success + success*fail + success*fail*fail. The overall equation is modeled as a summation (infinite -> n=n+1) of success*fail^n. However, am thinking the success and fail rate changes every time but im not sure what values to put in. Mind helping me out? (mini statistics lesson :D)

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Posted (edited)

Too lazy to write it up on the PC, so i just scanned my paper draft.

 Enhance.thumb.jpg.efc3047874ce1aa13eb15a

As you can see if the chance was constant and doesnt take increased failstacks into account your average number of tries would be 1/p. There is a small mistake at the bottom of my sheet for the infinite sum, it should be 1/p - 1 for the average number of Fails since i start at 1 and not 0. However since the average number of tries is fails + 1 you get 1/p.

Now if p is not constant things become more difficult. There may be an explicit formula for the sum, i was too lazy tho to find one and just approximated it by calculating (well the computer) the first 50-250 values for all combinations of p0, k, pB and Fmax.

Lets do an example that converges fairly quickly. Grunil -> Pri with 8 stacks.

pi = p0 + pB * min(Fmax, k + x* (i-1)) = 0.15 + 0.015 * min(25, 8 + 2(i-1))

p1 = 0.15 + 0.015*8 = 0.27 (p Start in the table)

p2 = 0.15 + 0.015*10 = 0.3

p3 = 0.33, p4 = 0.36, p5 = 0.39, p6 = 0.42, p7 = 0.45, p8 = 0.48, p9 = 0.51, p10 = 0.525 = p11 = p12 = ...

(1-p1) = 0.73

(1-p1)*(1-p2) = 0.73 * 0.7 = 0.511

(1-p1)*(1-p2)*(1-p3) = 0.73 * 0.7 * 0.67 = 0.34237, 0.219, 0.13366, 0.0775, 0.0426, 0.022, 0.01, 0.005, 0.00245, 0.001

sum = 0.73 + 0.511 + 0.34237 + ... ~ 2.1

which is significantly lower than 1/pStart - 1 ~ 2.7

Edit: Forgot that -1 again ;)

Edited by MajorS
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Posted

Anomalous results when using 1 failstack to get pri, and also when using 1 failstack going for +1 costumes.  New tinfoil theory, avoid using 1 failstack?

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Posted

I usually just

1-7 failstacks: Any +10-12 gear

7-12 Failstacks Any +13 gear, or any pri green accessory

13-17/18 Failstacks Blue or Gold +14 gear, or duo green accessories

19-28 Failstacks Blue or Gold Pri Gear

29-40 Failstacks Blue or Gold Duo Gear

41+ Too depressing to even consider...

2016-10-15_219205529.JPG

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Posted (edited)

 

Featherine did a good job of explaining it (see link at bottom of my previous post).

Since the goal of Enhancing is ultimately to get an upgraded item the calculations are based on the assumption, that you try until it works, which in return means the last one is always a success. So the average number of tries = average number of fails + 1. However i find it important to not just say you will have to try 3.7 times on average but really get the point home that you will fail 2.7 times on average (both statements are logically equivalent, but the second gets you to think about the potential losses). It also means that p Start is only the chance for the first try, since you are building failstacks every try after that has a higher chance (also explained in link). I have build a precomputed matrix for that, which for every combination of stacks and chances and stacks per fail has that AVG FAIL value.

Edit: At a fail rate of 80% you would have success at 20% which means 1/0.2 = 5 tries on average to get a success, which means 4 Fails if higher failstacks for successive tries are not taken into account.

can u explain this for me.

I started attempting tet at 55 stacks. on single piece of gear. now am at 115 stacks, no tet. 5 fs per attempt. 13 attempts? 5 of which were past 90 stacks which assumes its supposed to be 25% chance to succeed? guess i'm just in the low percentage of lolget-----edbyrng or is this how its supposed to work? lol

https://www.twitch.tv/rimotrian/v/92923933

Edited by Rimo

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Posted (edited)

can u explain this for me.

I started attempting tet at 55 stacks. on single piece of gear. now am at 115 stacks, no tet. 5 fs per attempt. 13 attempts? 5 of which were past 90 stacks which assumes its supposed to be 25% chance to succeed? guess i'm just in the low percentage of lolget-----edbyrng or is this how its supposed to work? lol

Luck. Can't do anything about it other than keep going until that shit goes, I'd keep your stats for a pen attempt though and just start over on a another 55 stack, eventually something will go. The chance of whatever success rate in my opinion isn't even there, no matter how we look at it, it's just gunna be some random number which will be either good or bad for us. The guy who posted that stuff though, is just going off probability but rng is rng. Idk how he'll explain it other than probability but it doesn't guarantee anything. 

Edited by Akenai

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Posted (edited)

Anomalous results when using 1 failstack to get pri, and also when using 1 failstack going for +1 costumes.  New tinfoil theory, avoid using 1 failstack?

After Rednose day im sure that is entirely possible ;).

can u explain this for me.

I started attempting tet at 55 stacks. on single piece of gear. now am at 115 stacks, no tet. 5 fs per attempt. 13 attempts? 5 of which were past 90 stacks which assumes its supposed to be 25% chance to succeed? guess i'm just in the low percentage of lolget-----edbyrng or is this how its supposed to work? lol

https://www.twitch.tv/rimotrian/v/92923933

The problem is, that the distribution (as in how many people need how many tries) has a long thin tail, for the average number of tries that tail does not matter too much, but it also means there will be people that fall into that area.

Now that being said lets do an upper bound calculation of how unlikely your situation is:

13 attempts at 75% fail chance with no success has a chance of 0.75^13 ~ 0.024 ~ 1/42. Which means on average 1 in 42 players will have a failstreak as high (or even higher) if all of them attempted only 13 tet upgrades. Unfortunately once you have more attempts failstreaks like this are alot more likely.

Example: rolling a 6 two times in a row with 2 attempts has a chance of 1/36 (which is roughly equal to your streak). With 3 attempts that chance (for 2x 6 in a row) increases to 11/216 ~ 1/20.

You roll that die often enough and 2x 6 in a row becomes an almost certainty. This is where human perception comes into play. Our brain has a knack for finding patterns (even where there are none). We will immediatly notice odd events like yours and look for an explanation. Unfortunatly more than 1 in 40 people will get that just by chance with no pattern and no broken RNG. Another thing is, that 25% of people will succeed on the first try. These are the stories we hear and despite being well in range of RNG you hear these much more often because 1 out of 4 players is very "lucky". 18.75% of people (1 in 5.333) will still be lucky by succeeding on the second try. 14% on the third try. Which means more than half of the people are somewhat to very 'lucky' by beating the average.

And as life goes most people will end up in the tail at one time or another. In your situation you may find some comfort with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean#Other_statistical_phenomena .

Edit: And just to be clear, all the math cant hide the fact that the system does not encourage playing. Atleast not for the majority of western players. People tend to prefer being in control of whats happening. And while you can mitigate some RNG by just trying often enough it becomes infeasable for the majority of players once they hit TRI. Without the downgrade and destruction (clothes/acc) we could deal with RNG. But these 2 things cause so much frustration among the non extrem hardcore base, that BDO will keep losing players over that. And even if our hardcore friends say: "good one carebear/casual less" you will end up with a dead game sooner or later. I like BDO but im already looking forward to "New World".

Edited by MajorS
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Posted (edited)

I am currently with a FS +43 on my main. This due to PRI attempts on my grunils and then a quite surprisingly bad luck on my PRI-wanna be DUO Iron Buster (I raised the fs from +18 to 43 with that beast).

Now what ? To go on with Buster is useless. But on the other hand, I do not have any boss gear or highly rated accessory on me. Might want to try TRI on my Ultimate Yuria....but once again, kinda pointless now that we have the buster...and it's not even a liverto...

Any idea ? 

 

EDIT: purchased a DUO buster and failed it with 43. Now I have 47....

Edited by Ghigi

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Posted

I am currently with a FS +43 on my main. This due to PRI attempts on my grunils and then a quite surprisingly bad luck on my PRI-wanna be DUO Iron Buster (I raised the fs from +18 to 43 with that beast).

Now what ? To go on with Buster is useless. But on the other hand, I do not have any boss gear or highly rated accessory on me. Might want to try TRI on my Ultimate Yuria....but once again, kinda pointless now that we have the buster...and it's not even a liverto...

Any idea ? 

 

EDIT: purchased a DUO buster and failed it with 43. Now I have 47....

I ended up with 2 more chars and 42 stacks .... My suggestion dont waste it on Yuria. Leave that stack on a char until you have something worthwhile to upgrade. While it may seem like a waste it is fairly difficult to build stacks this high on purpose and sooner or later you may need a higher stack. It takes about 15min to bring a new char to the point where they can enhance and i would make full use of the char slots you got. (Im at 11, aiming for 12th all with loyalty)

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Posted (edited)

Too late, I made a DUO Iron Buster with 50 fs.
After that, I went Ogre farming, and dropped x2 Bares Necklace. 

I shouldn't play this game everyday. :o  

Edited by Ghigi

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Posted

======
BHEG'S
======
Target    Start   Achieve   DuraLoss
+6        +8      +10       -10
+7        +10     +10       -0
+8        +10     +14       -20
+9        +13     +14       -5
+10       +14     +14       -0
+11       +15     +19       -20
+12       +18     +22       -20
+12v2     +16     +20       -20
+13       +22     +27       -25
+14         FORCED          -80
+15         FORCED          -100
+16       +22     +26       -30
+17       +30     +33       -10

========
MUSKAN'S
========
Target    Start   Achieve   DuraLoss
+6        +9      +10       -5
+7        +10     +12       -10
+8        +15     +17       -10
+9        +15     +15       -0
+10       +15     +19       -20
+11       +18     +22       -20
+12       +18     +25       -35
+12v2     +19     +19       -0
+13       +25     +30       -25
+13v2     +22     +31       -45
+14       +30     +32       -10
+15         FORCED          -100
+16       +20     +20       -0
+17       +37     +40       -10

========
RED NOSE
========
Target    Start   Achieve   DuraLoss
+6        +10     +10       -0
+7        +10     +10       -0
+8        +10     +10       -0
+9        +12     +13       -5
+10       +13     +15       -10
+11       +14     +18       -20
+12       +14     +20       -30
+13       +22     +27       -25
+14       +20     +25       -25
+15       +20     +34       -70
+16       +18     +24       -30
+17       +22     +22       -0

FWIW, I wanted to include my boss gear attempts here so you could munge them into your spreadsheet for accuracy sake. I keep pretty good notes on all things BDO RNG related. Ask me about my 22 T8 Breed attempts with no success! lol

Hope those numbers help a little :)

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Posted

 

FWIW, I wanted to include my boss gear attempts here so you could munge them into your spreadsheet for accuracy sake. I keep pretty good notes on all things BDO RNG related. Ask me about my 22 T8 Breed attempts with no success! lol

Hope those numbers help a little :)

Thanks every bit helps. Im updating the tool right now to also calculate forcing and cron stone. Missing the cron stone requirements for all grades weapon and armor pen atm tho.

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Posted

Thx a lot, i wait till you update it i can't live without this guide anymore :) <3

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Thx a lot, i wait till you update it i can't live without this guide anymore :) <3

Its updated. I slightly raised the price for concentrated weapon stones and the incorrect price for Reblath. Also boosted base chance for PRI jewelry to 30% while leaving the % per stack fairly low and the cap similar. Still need more data on those. Also added a couple items.

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Well apart from failstack numbers, my problem is always the same: what's the best way to build up FS from 0 to +15 / +20 ?

Which are the least expensive items to use ? I tried reblath but even from +14 to +15 it's hard to get more than 12 FS... grunil would be a good choice because you can resell it BUT it's costly to repair it's dura. Agerian is not that good either and weapons like Rosar/Krea, cheap on market for sure, are not resellable at all so, once they reach +15 the only choice is to Extract getting around 40+ blackstones back (and it's a great waste of money).

So my question is: what are you guys using to get FS ?

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