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Bouncing back after a rough session with RNG

35 posts in this topic

Posted

Any tips? just got set back about 2 months in terms of gains (close to 2 bil in accessories and silver lost in about 30 min, at 5 mil an hour it'll only take me approx.400 hours to recoup...feelsrealbadman)

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Posted

Get to 10-15 mil an hour.

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Posted

Shit happens.  Grind it out, scratch it up as a lesson learned to quit trying to upgrade when the odds are not working for you after a fail or two.

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Posted

My tip is: don't enchant accessories, buy them.

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Posted

Don't enhance accessories without backups, that's my advice. Since accessories go poof, you should want to attempt enhancements on backups, or save your money for a TRI version from the market place. Going safe is the best way with those, unless you get lucky, otherwise RIP.

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Posted

My tip is: don't enchant accessories, buy them.

Who you gonna buy from if no one enchants?:)

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Posted

 

Get to 10-15 mil an hour.

where are you getting 15 mil an hour?

Don't enhance accessories without backups, that's my advice. Since accessories go poof, you should want to attempt enhancements on backups, or save your money for a TRI version from the market place. Going safe is the best way with those, unless you get lucky, otherwise RIP.

I should have stopped at the first TRI attempt on a crescent, but I was tilted enough to just keep throwing up accessory after accessory, at max failstacks I was hoping something would go through

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Posted

Who you gonna buy from if no one enchants?:)

It was my tip to the guy, I am not saying no one should do it. If you are super rich and have backups it's fine to try. If your progression depends on it, hell no.

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Posted

 

where are you getting 15 mil an hour?

from his ass

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Posted

Any tips? just got set back about 2 months in terms of gains (close to 2 bil in accessories and silver lost in about 30 min, at 5 mil an hour it'll only take me approx.400 hours to recoup...feelsrealbadman)

Here's a tip.... Stop gambling and you wouldn't be in this mess.

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Posted

from his ass

So it's impossibru to grind 10-15 m/h ? Oh okay.

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Posted

Here's a tip.... Stop gambling and you wouldn't be in this mess.

in a game where they layer RNG into everything, everytime you log in your gambling

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Posted

What others have said: save up and buy what you need or save up for a second set. In typical Korean mmo's it's highly advised never taking risks without a backup plan, but I guess we're just humans after all; we know there's a chance of succeeding and we know people have done it, so why wouldn't it happen to us, right? :) Well with the odds being against you it most likely won't happen to you :) 

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Posted

Rule of thumb in gambling, only gamble with what you can lose. So you don't feel bad when you inevitably do.

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Posted

So it's impossibru to grind 10-15 m/h ? Oh okay.

where are u getting 15 mil an hour tho?

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Posted

where are u getting 15 mil an hour tho?

I'd like to know, too.

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Posted

RNG HELL. We welcome you!

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Posted (edited)

pls, an updated max. FS per Enchant lvl table FTW:  >>>put your links here<<<

Edited by ReyRata

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Posted

 

where are you getting 15 mil an hour?

I should have stopped at the first TRI attempt on a crescent, but I was tilted enough to just keep throwing up accessory after accessory, at max failstacks I was hoping something would go through

yeah it sucks because even at max you are subjected to bad streaks.  Thats why i did all my boss gear first because you at least don't blow it up and build decent stacks.  Accessories are such a kick in the teeth and only give you 1 fail stack on top of it.

 

I wish it was as easy as just buying them....

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Posted

yeah it sucks because even at max you are subjected to bad streaks.  Thats why i did all my boss gear first because you at least don't blow it up and build decent stacks.  Accessories are such a kick in the teeth and only give you 1 fail stack on top of it.

 

I wish it was as easy as just buying them....

exactly, theres a reason there isn't a page full of TRI crescents on the market. its disheartening as fuk but at the end of the day I learned a lesson after reading some of the replies in the thread, I guess ill start stashing backs ups before I push something that far from now on

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Posted

15m/h is almost impossible except ure very high geared and know what you do 

I think he doesn't mean 15m/h only from grinding. If you have some crafting going on which gives you some passive income aswell its not hard to get around 15m/h 

I make 400+m per week with about ~35-40h of grinding per week

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Posted

lol kid blows up 2b in accessories without backup, cries to forum how 2 playkthxy

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Posted (edited)

I'm at that point of abandoning hope. All I've been doing now is horse racing, and I'm beginning to think the investment this game asks for is too much given its tendency to discard everything you earn.

15m/h is almost impossible except ure very high geared and know what you do 

I think he doesn't mean 15m/h only from grinding. If you have some crafting going on which gives you some passive income aswell its not hard to get around 15m/h 

I make 400+m per week with about ~35-40h of grinding per week

Is that all? Just a full time job. 

Edited by Xialoh
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Posted (edited)

As a poker player I find it helps give me some peace of mind to evaluate the EV (expected value) of each upgrade, particularly with accessories.

For the uninitiated EV is a way to calculate the expected value of each gamble made. The exact equation looks like this:

EV = (%you win x amount you win when you do) - (%you lose x amount you lose when you do)

This is a little bit confusing to those who haven't played with it before but it gets easier to calculate as you go along.

So let's say we are after a pri red coral earring with 25 failstacks (the max effective stacks for pri accessories according to the upgrade charts easily found online http://i.imgur.com/G7Aw641.png). We know we have a 52.5% chance to succeed and a 47.5% chance to fail with the failstacks we have built up.

So now our EV equation can begin to take shape.

EV = (.525 x amount we gain from enhancement) - (.475 x the cost of both earrings combined)

Thanks to the Halloween event red coral earrings are relatively cheap right now. The base earring will cost us around 3 mil/each. Let's say that pri earrings are worth 8 mil on the market. So if we pri the earring it will mean we've gained a total of 2 million in silver (8 mil earring - 6 mil investment).(Thank you MajorS for correcting my original equation! This is more accurate now.) Now we can plug in the last variables.

EV = (.525 x 2,000,000) - (.475 x 6,000,000)
EV = 1,050,000 - 2,850,000
EV = -1,800,000

So in general this is a bad gamble! You can expect to LOSE MONEY on average. That's the problem with BDO enhancements. You're almost always looking at bets that will lose you money in the long run.

So let's say that we have our pri valued at 8 mil and we want to go after that sexy duo. We've built our failstacks back up to 35 (the maximum effective stack for duo) giving us a 33.75% chance to succeed vs a 66.25% chance to fail. As you can see the further up we go the tougher it gets.

EV = (.3375 x amount we gain from enhancement) - (.6625 x the cost of our pri 8 mil + a base earring 3 mil)

I think right now duos cost about 19 mil on the UNO market. Game is down so I apologize for guessing.

19 mil value - 11 mil investment = 8 mil gain.

EV = (.3375 x 8,000,000) - (.6625 x 11,000,000)
EV = 2,700,000 - 7,287,500
EV = -4,587,500

Ouch! That's a rough average loss. This doesn't mean you're guaranteed to lose! In fact, 1/3 times you're going to get that sexy duo. It just means that if we tried this over and over and over with the same stats we would get an average of -4,587,500 silver per try.

If the cost of the duo ring were much higher, or if the chances to succeed were better this might be a positive EV bet. In poker you ideally want to play only +EV bets. In BDO if you want to be the best you're going to have to make negative EV bets a LOT.

We can do this with weapons and armor too but it is a bit trickier. It's almost always a +EV bet to roll easy to repair gear like non-boss armors and yurias. When you lose you're only losing the price of that blackstone + repair. Boss armors and weapons are almost always a negative EV bet as soon as they have a chance to fail thanks to the very high price of repairs. Duo and higher you need to factor in the cost of getting them back up when they fail. Also we need to take into consideration that fail stacking isn't free (Thanks again to MajorS for pointing that out).

All you can do is throw silver at these bad bets until they succeed. Knowing the math can help calm your anxiety a bit because you see exactly how the system is stacked against us. As one person said in this thread it's usually a better bet to just buy what you're after. The problem with that is those items are extremely rare to see on the auction house because of how much silver goes into making them.

Hope this helps. Good luck!

 

Edited by FearlessKing
math is hard in the morning
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Posted

15m/h is almost impossible except ure very high geared and know what you do 

I think he doesn't mean 15m/h only from grinding. If you have some crafting going on which gives you some passive income aswell its not hard to get around 15m/h 

I make 400+m per week with about ~35-40h of grinding per week

I said not 15 i said 10 - 15 which is 8 m guaranteed and from 2-7 mils in books, excluding other rare drops, it's in mediah. I just don't want to be vocal about it.

 

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