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Bouncing back after a rough session with RNG

35 posts in this topic

Posted

...

Excellent approach. I love the way poker associates probability with implied value. I wish the actual game itself didn't bore me so much to play (not a gambler I guess). 

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Posted

Excellent approach. I love the way poker associates probability with implied value. I wish the actual game itself didn't bore me so much to play (not a gambler I guess). 

Thanks! It isn't a perfect system but it definitely helps to sharpen the edge a bit.

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Posted

Any tips? just got set back about 2 months in terms of gains (close to 2 bil in accessories and silver lost in about 30 min, at 5 mil an hour it'll only take me approx.400 hours to recoup...feelsrealbadman)

work on a back up set that will keep you at around 194-200 ap. all made from cheap shit.
2x Blue red coral earrings DUO/TRIs

2x MOS DUO/TRI
Shultz TRI
TRI bares neck/ PRI seraps/ PRI secil if yer feeling spendy.TRI

TRI wep and secondary.you'll be around 193-199 ap with that
 

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Posted (edited)


Thanks to the Halloween event red coral earrings are relatively cheap right now. The base earring will cost us around 3 mil/each. Let's say that pri earrings are worth 8 mil on the market. Now we can plug in the last variables.

EV = (.525 x 8,000,000) - (.475 x 6,000,000)
EV = 4,200,000 - 2,850,000
EV = +1,350,000
 

Sorry but that is wrong. EV = Return - Investment.

Investment: always 2 Rings so 6m (you will always use up both rings and sometimes you get a shiny new one)

Return: 0.525 * 8m

So EV = 4.2m - 6m = -1.8m

And that assumes that failstacks are free (which they arnt).

If you go by market value for jewelry you will always end up with a net loss in BDO. However you dont enhance to build up more silver. You enhance to up your ap or whatever and thats where it gets tricky. Ultimately you have to decide how much you want to spend per ap/health/dp and then see if the average upgrade cost is below or above that threshold. This will not help you with bad streaks. It will also not help you with gamblers rage.

Edited by MajorS

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Posted

 

where are you getting 15 mil an hour?

I can do a 4500-5+k Guild Mission with my mates, and make 10-25 mill in an hour via market place, as long as node for that area is 7 or 9

now if someone did the same with 1-3 people in an area node 7 or 9 with trash loot and drops not hard at all, now they are going to say Sausins but I would not know I only go there for Guild Boss scroll missions, there are many areas in the game that do very well.

 

it is not hard just takes time, if anything find a guild on the server you are on that has more to offer than pvp and learn their ways.

anyhow welcome back to BDO and i hope you fill your boots with loot! 

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Posted

I can do a 4500-5+k Guild Mission with my mates, and make 10-25 mill in an hour via market place, as long as node for that area is 7 or 9

now if someone did the same with 1-3 people in an area node 7 or 9 with trash loot and drops not hard at all, now they are going to say Sausins but I would not know I only go there for Guild Boss scroll missions, there are many areas in the game that do very well.

 

it is not hard just takes time, if anything find a guild on the server you are on that has more to offer than pvp and learn their ways.

anyhow welcome back to BDO and i hope you fill your boots with loot! 

u get pay outs directly for the guild quest that u do? lol that's crazy man, I guess that's 1 way to do it. im in a competitive pvp guild with a tight community, which is basically my endgame (pvp) I think I just need to bite the bullet and jump on the grind, take advantage of passive incomes like workers, crafting and imperial trade and build back up over the course of the next month or so

As a poker player I find it helps give me some peace of mind to evaluate the EV (expected value) of each upgrade, particularly with accessories.

For the uninitiated EV is a way to calculate the expected value of each gamble made. The exact equation looks like this:

EV = (%you win x amount you win when you do) - (%you lose x amount you lose when you do)

This is a little bit confusing to those who haven't played with it before but it gets easier to calculate as you go along.

So let's say we are after a pri red coral earring with 25 failstacks (the max effective stacks for pri accessories according to the upgrade charts easily found online http://i.imgur.com/G7Aw641.png). We know we have a 52.5% chance to succeed and a 47.5% chance to fail with the failstacks we have built up.

So now our EV equation can begin to take shape.

EV = (.525 x amount the new pri earring is worth) - (.475 x the cost of both earrings combined)

Thanks to the Halloween event red coral earrings are relatively cheap right now. The base earring will cost us around 3 mil/each. Let's say that pri earrings are worth 8 mil on the market. Now we can plug in the last variables.

EV = (.525 x 8,000,000) - (.475 x 6,000,000)
EV = 4,200,000 - 2,850,000
EV = +1,350,000

So in general this is a great gamble! You can expect to make 1,350,000 silver per roll with the same failstacks and prices. This doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win!!! It is still a "coin flip situation" which you will lose about 47.5% of the time! But due to the prices of both the pri and the base price, along with a generous failstack % to upgrade you know that this is a good bet. If you ran these exact stats one hundred times with the same variables we would expect to make 135,000,000 in profit.

The problem is that in BDO the prices are almost always placed in such a way that we're going to get a negative number for our expected value. Let's take a look at another example of such a case.

So let's say that we have our pri valued at 8 mil and we want to go after that sexy duo. We've built our failstacks back up to 35 (the maximum effective stack for duo) giving us a 33.75% chance to succeed vs a 66.25% chance to fail. As you can see the further up we go the tougher it gets.

EV = (.3375 x cost of a duo earring) - (.6625 x the cost of our pri 8 mil + a base earring 3 mil)

I think right now duos cost about 19 mil on the UNO market. Game is down so I apologize for guessing.

EV = (.3375x 19,000,000) - (.6625 x 11,000,000)
EV = 6,412,500 - 7,287,500
EV = -875,000 

So as we can see where going after a pri was a positive expected value, going after the duo is actually a negative value. This doesn't mean you're guaranteed to lose! In fact, 1/3 times you're going to get that sexy duo. It just means that if we tried this over and over and over with the same stats we would get an average of -875,000 silver/roll.

If the cost of the duo ring were much higher, or if the chances to succeed were better this might be a positive EV bet. In poker you ideally want to play only +EV bets. In BDO if you want to be the best you're going to have to make negative EV bets a LOT.

We can do this with weapons and armor too but it is a bit trickier. It's almost always a +EV bet to roll easy to repair gear like non-boss armors and yurias. When you lose you're only losing the price of that blackstone + repair. Boss armors and weapons are almost always a negative EV bet as soon as they have a chance to fail thanks to the very high price of repairs. Duo and higher you need to factor in the cost of getting them back up when they fail.

All you can do is throw silver at these bad bets until they succeed. Knowing the math can help calm your anxiety a bit because you see exactly how the system is stacked against us. As one person said in this thread it's usually a better bet to just buy what you're after. The problem with that is those items are extremely rare to see on the auction house because of how much silver goes into making them.

Hope this helps. Good luck!

 

the only thing that makes it tough to evaluate the risk is u don't know how much of an edge failstacks are actually giving you. you're basing it off a failstack chart that came from the KR beta crowd sourced off of green armor, its tough to make those calls when ur applying that chart to gold accessories that are pushing the 1 bil + range (which general consenus is that they operate on a different [unknown] table)

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Posted

when you grind a guild mission 1 you get drops and party loot, you only get paid from guild if you have a higher contract. 

 

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Posted

when you grind a guild mission 1 you get drops and party loot, you only get paid from guild if you have a higher contract. 

 

guild leader can also do payouts straight from the guild funds that work independently from guild contracts

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Posted

Sorry but that is wrong. EV = Return / Investment.

Investment: always 2 Rings so 6m (you will always use up both rings and sometimes you get a shiny new one)

Return: 0.525 * 8m

So EV = 4.2m - 6m = -1.8m

And that assumes that failstacks are free (which they arnt).

If you go by market value for jewelry you will always end up with a net loss in BDO. However you dont enhance to build up more silver. You enhance to up your ap or whatever and thats where it gets tricky. Ultimately you have to decide how much you want to spend per ap/health/dp and then see if the average upgrade cost is below or above that threshold. This will not help you with bad streaks. It will also not help you with gamblers rage.

I understand that failstacking isn't free but I was just trying to illustrate that overall we will be looking at -EV bets. You're right though that it becomes a -1.8 mil EV gamble. The return is actually a lot lower because we're combining the price of 2 earrings to make that upgraded one. So 8 mil - 6 mil is a net gain of only 2 mil.

EV = Accessory goes pri - accessories are blown up
EV = (.525 x 2 mil) - (.475 x 6 mil)
EV = 1,050,000 - 2,850,000
EV= -1.8 mil


Which means accessories are always just a big ol' shit show of negative value. My bad!

 

the only thing that makes it tough to evaluate the risk is u don't know how much of an edge failstacks are actually giving you. you're basing it off a failstack chart that came from the KR beta crowd sourced off of green armor, its tough to make those calls when ur applying that chart to gold accessories that are pushing the 1 bil + range (which general consenus is that they operate on a different [unknown] table)

Yes, that's true. In general you're looking at bad bets with any enhancement even if we assume the charts are 100% accurate. Chances are that the % to win is actually a bit lower than the charts say.

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Posted

the only thing that makes it tough to evaluate the risk is u don't know how much of an edge failstacks are actually giving you. you're basing it off a failstack chart that came from the KR beta crowd sourced off of green armor, its tough to make those calls when ur applying that chart to gold accessories that are pushing the 1 bil + range (which general consenus is that they operate on a different [unknown] table)

Actually not that hard, just takes a shitload of calculations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WzAeIFslcWhZ-TudUTrvt4S6ejGF8Uo5FwVqNivfHK0/edit#gid=0


Which means accessories are always just a big ol' shit show of negative value. My bad!

 

Yes, that's true. In general you're looking at bad bets with any enhancement even if we assume the charts are 100% accurate. Chances are that the % to win is actually a bit lower than the charts say.

Yeah been there ;) . I had plenty of minor hickups when doing my enhancement calculations and sometimes we just want that number to be positive to not be dragged down even more by that RNG system. If you havnt try out the link above it gives (not 100%, but good enough) picture of the madness thats BDO enhancing.

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