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How many Active Players dose BDO have?

124 posts in this topic

Posted

Better method of estimation than anything else on here so far.

Every mmo will report increasing concurrency numbers. A very few still report them even when they are dropping. Until kakao reports increasing numbers then you can bet the bank bdo has less then 120k concurrent players. Sadly, every other measure is speculation. The drop in price to 5$ is sure to have brought in a number of players and the f2p move has boosted other mmo's, so its likely to do the same here.

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Posted

How many players sold their stone ? -  probably 90%.

Source?

What was the chance to aquire one out of box ? - around 50% appear to get it.

Source?

Amount of resold items? not much yet as people will wait for prices to go back.

Source?

God I love it when QQers need to lie so badly just to make themselves feel secure that the game doesn't have a high population. If even the QQers who are crying on the forums every day can't quit, then what makes anyone think that fans of the game will quit? :) 

Every mmo will report increasing concurrency numbers. 

Source? Please show me mainstream MMOs that do this. :) 

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Posted

Source?

Source?

Source?

God I love it when QQers need to lie so badly just to make themselves feel secure that the game doesn't have a high population. If even the QQers who are crying on the forums every day can't quit, then what makes anyone think that fans of the game will quit? :) 

 

Source? Please show me mainstream MMOs that do this. :) 

Much like with 2+2=4, you don't need a source for common knowledge :)

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Posted

Even on launch day they were few 100k's short from a million.  And since then pop dropped by 95%.

95%? You sure? Not 86,25%?

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Posted

More than half the players base at all times is afk.

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Posted

It's so fun to generalize :)  

No mate, I'm actually asking you a genuine question.

I interpreted your "The cash shop additions are pure greed" as meaning "any other sales made are greedy".

Again, if this isn't what you meant, I'm more than happy to apologize and admit I'm wrong, I'm just actually confused if you do mean something else by that.

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Posted

No mate, I'm actually asking you a genuine question.

I interpreted your "The cash shop additions are pure greed" as meaning "any other sales made are greedy".

Again, if this isn't what you meant, I'm more than happy to apologize and admit I'm wrong, I'm just actually confused if you do mean something else by that.

So the word "additions" appear in my text. I will let your inquisitive mind decipher exactly what that means with the aid of the following information:

- I do not, have not, nor will I ever care about cosmetic items in cash shops.

- I did not care about the ghillie suit even though tonsof people whined about it.

- When Kakao said they allowed people to sell cash shop items so that "everyone would have access to the items" I asked "Why not put in a vendor for it instead?"

So, what cash shop additions do you think I may be referring to?

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Posted

Why not put in a vendor for it instead?

Because people would stop buying cash-shop items and would just use in-game silver? Which would lead to a drop in cash shop sales, a drop in revenue and eventually the shutting down of the servers.

Before you whine "it's just greed" I would like to point out that if you EVER get a job that pays more than the living wage then you are just a hypocrite. After all, if you have enough mnoey to survive on why would you need any more? That's just greedy. :) 

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Posted

Because people would stop buying cash-shop items and would just use in-game silver? Which would lead to a drop in cash shop sales, a drop in revenue and eventually the shutting down of the servers.

Before you whine "it's just greed" I would like to point out that if you EVER get a job that pays more than the living wage then you are just a hypocrite. After all, if you have enough mnoey to survive on why would you need any more? That's just greedy. :) 

No, they wouldn't. 

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Posted

 

- When Kakao said they allowed people to sell cash shop items so that "everyone would have access to the items" I asked "Why not put in a vendor for it instead?"

So, what cash shop additions do you think I may be referring to?

Was just a obvious lie. The actual system do NOT allow everyone to have access to thoses item via cash shop.

Its just to have :

1- More ppl possible sell cash shop outfit / pet / value pack on the market to get silver

2- Since clearly not everyone will have access to thoses CS item, somes "frustrated" players might in the end buy from the cash shop.

 

All they want is maximise their profit. Thoses guys are just greed.

 

Otherwise they would have made a more handy system tho = A pearl -> silver / Silver -> pearl converter ( each pearl aviable would be ofc sold by players ) GW2 have that ( with different currency name )

 

They will never set that at a vendor tho, because they just want to have all pearl item in the game come from real money usage.

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Posted (edited)

No, they wouldn't. 

Cash shop sales wouldn't drop if people could buy all the costumes for in-game silver directly from a vendor? Ooooooooooooooooooookay. :) 

Edited by Plunge

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Posted

Cash shop sales wouldn't drop if people could buy all the costumes for in-game silver directly from a vendor? Ooooooooooooooooooookay. :) 

You said they'd stop outright. Source:

Because people would stop buying cash-shop items and would just use in-game silver?

Which is wrong as evidenced by other games. See GW2 for instance :) You can buy cash shop currency with ingame gold, yet people still buy cash shop currency. How can that be...? You led me to believe such a thing was impossible! *shocked*

Back to the point: "Good guy Kakao" said they did this so everyone would have access, isn't that just super nice of them? :):) <3

And you're now telling me that was all a ruse to get people to spend more in their cash shop? How absolutely ghastly! :(

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Posted

Source? Please show me mainstream MMOs that do this. :) 

Look here. I like you for the most part even though I disagree with you on some issues. I am not going to get sucked into a 'source war' with you on trivial points that you could verify with a little search-fu Sure, I used the word 'Every' and in hindsight I see how that was an absolute and I should have avoided, but for gods sake man, you understood the gist.

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Posted

 

You said they'd stop outright. Source:

Actually, I didn't. I said "people would stop" not "all people" which is further strengthened by this sentence. At no point did I even use the word outright, why do you have to keep lying so much? :) Hell, I even say "a drop" and not "a halt". 

Which would lead to a drop in cash shop sales

I know you don't know how to argue, but don't make me chalk you up as someone with poor comprehension as well, please. :) Another day where Crowleyz continues to whine and cry about the game whilst still playing it. :) 

Look here. I like you for the most part even though I disagree with you on some issues. I am not going to get sucked into a 'source war' with you on trivial points that you could verify with a little search-fu Sure, I used the word 'Every' and in hindsight I see how that was an absolute and I should have avoided, but for gods sake man, you understood the gist.

I didn't understand the gist at all, if you want to retract your statement then be my guest but as far as I can see most MMOs do not release figures multiple times; hell some like Tera didn't release their active population figures at all.

Show me 2/3 MAJOR MMOs (not something like "Cat that sits in Euro Truck Simulator 2") that have officially released their population figures multiples times (at least more than once). That's the claim you made, back it up. 

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Posted

Actually, I didn't. I said "people would stop" not "all people" which is further strengthened by this sentence. At no point did I even use the word outright, why do you have to keep lying so much? :) Hell, I even say "a drop" and not "a halt". 

 

I know you don't know how to argue, but don't make me chalk you up as someone with poor comprehension as well, please. :) Another day where Crowleyz continues to whine and cry about the game whilst still playing it. :) 

 

I didn't understand the gist at all, if you want to retract your statement then be my guest but as far as I can see most MMOs do not release figures multiple times; hell some like Tera didn't release their active population figures at all.

Show me 2/3 MAJOR MMOs (not something like "Cat that sits in Euro Truck Simulator 2") that have officially released their population figures multiples times (at least more than once). That's the claim you made, back it up. 

Wow, someone is angry because they got caught out badly lol :D 

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Posted

Wow, someone is angry because they got caught out badly lol :D 

So can't refute my points? God don't make it this easy please, I hate it when you just give up. :( 

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Posted

So can't refute my points? God don't make it this easy please, I hate it when you just give up. :( 

"I said people would stop not all people" hahaha :D I just love how you start grasping in desperation and then when you inevitably lose you stop replying to me for a couple of days and then you try and try again :D

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Posted

"I said people would stop not all people" hahaha :D I just love how you start grasping in desperation and then when you inevitably lose you stop replying to me for a couple of days and then you try and try again :D

Do you not udnerstand the difference in words or something? I get that you need to use a strawman to keep your weak argument together, but come on make it less obvious. All you do is cry, lie and use logical fallacies whilst always refusing to refute points. I feel nothing but pity at this point. :( 

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Posted

There are so many players in the game that even in the middle of the week at 4 AM, most bosses die in 2 minutes. Same with marketplace, you won't find 10 seconds in the whole week where good items don't get sniped within same second. You won't find any of the good grind spots being empty, ever.

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Posted

Do you not udnerstand the difference in words or something? I get that you need to use a strawman to keep your weak argument together, but come on make it less obvious. All you do is cry, lie and use logical fallacies whilst always refusing to refute points. I feel nothing but pity at this point. :( 

people would stop buying cash-shop items

:)

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Posted (edited)

rough estimate, around 10k

 

In NA/EU. Much more in KR since they actually get attention over here. The EU/NA players are unheard by PA since "daum" is just monetizing the game here and doesnt do balance patches. So that keeps players away.

Complete garbage. Let me give you the right info piece by piece:

  1. Daum/Kakao is nothing more than a commercial administrator - all content gets determined by PA. This is evident in how Kakao even gets patch notes wrong half the time, as they find out what's coming shortly before patch hits themselves.
  2. We get just about all balance changes X weeks after KR, where X is usually in the 3-5 week range. This is a normal delay of changes propagating downstream. Anyone is complex software development (which I am) will tell you it'd be extremely difficult to make structural/balance changes in the main development branch and not propagate that to sub-versions over a long period of time. We eventually get all changes from KR, save for some clearly saved behind flags (like delayed Nouver, no XL pots, etc.)
  3. 10k is a pretty nonsense estimate, that to me doesn't even feel right based on what I'm intuitively seeing around me. Here's mine: Based on some of my lifeskill rankings, where I'm in rank A, about 2/3 the bar but don't get a formal ranking. Let's say, based on this, that each rank tier represents 100 people in that channel. This would mean 500 people on each channel live and connected to the server. Let's be conservative and say 400 for the average channel - some more, some less. 400x36 = 14,400 people actually connected to the server at a given time. I'd easily venture a guess to say that even in a game like BDO where staying online is rewarded, at most 50% of the population would be connected at a time. This number is likely even much smaller. I'd say then that we can expect about 30K active users on NA, conservatively speaking. If I had to guess "# of players active at least once a month" , or the famed MAU metric, I would personally guess about 100K users (MAU) in NA. I guess we can approximate about the same number of players in EU, but I can't say much more than that.

Edit: Here's another way to estimate: I am seeing ~5400 laytenn sales on NA. Let's say that 5000 of these came form the recent final award. Let's say that there's a 10% chance to score laytenn in the roulette and about 80% of laytenn receivers would've posted the item on the market. Based on this, we can estimate that ~62K users managed to reach the 30 day mark, meaning they logged in at least once a day! No matter how you look at it, we clearly have tens of thousands of people active multiple times each month, maybe more.

 

 

Edited by Hzazul

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Posted

Complete garbage.

Let me give you the right info 

Let's say, based on this, that each rank tier represents 100 people in that channel. This would mean 500 people on each channel live and connected to the server. Let's be conservative and say 400 for the average channel - some more, some less. 400x36 = 14,400 people actually connected to the server at a given time. I'd easily venture a guess to say that even in a game like BDO where staying online is rewarded, at most 50% of the population would be connected at a time. This number is likely even much smaller. I'd say then that we can expect about 30K active users on NA, conservatively speaking. If I had to guess "# of players active at least once a month" , or the famed MAU metric, I would personally guess about 100K users (MAU) in NA. I guess we can approximate about the same number of players in EU, but I can't say much more than that.

So you accuse someone of typing up garbage, say you're going to offer up "the right info" and then process to type garbage yourself? Where's your source that each rank tier is 100 people? Where's your source that it's 400 per average channel? Where's your source that 50% are connected?

This is more ridiculous than using honey sales to guess the population. 

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Posted (edited)

 

So you accuse someone of typing up garbage, say you're going to offer up "the right info" and then process to type garbage yourself? Where's your source that each rank tier is 100 people? Where's your source that it's 400 per average channel? Where's your source that 50% are connected?

This is more ridiculous than using honey sales to guess the population. 

Not sure what position you hold in life, but this kind of estimation is how much of the high tier finance/consulting world operates. In absence of real data, which only Kakao has, skilled/intelligent people can use proxies to estimate quantities. Nothing strange here, other than your reaction. They are called assumptions and in a good analysis, they are said to be "reasonable". If you disagree with the assumptions in my analysis, say so and suggest better alternatives. 

In terms of the 100 for each tier - I thought it was clear from my explanation. We know for sure that each tier is more than 30. Given where my growth was compared to #30 in the ranking chart and how I was about 2/3 of the way in the bar, I eyeballed and guessed that the full tier seems to hold about 100 slots. You can argue it should be 50, or 80, or 120. Pick either of those numbers and you'll get a directional estimate of the channel population. I personally think 100 appears to be a close estimate of the real tier population behind the scenes. There are other assumptions in my analysis, such as each tier holding the same number of people. It would be most natural to do it that way, but of course, who knows. Believe what you want.

Edited by Hzazul

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Posted

this kind of estimation is how much of the high tier finance/consulting world operates.

No...no it really doesn't...

skilled/intelligent people can use proxies to estimate quantities.

No, they don't. They use SOME data to estimate other data, not an estimation based on NOTHING. You have no data whatsoever so your assumptions are based on nothing, if you somehow had the figures for each letter tier in life-skills perhaps you'd have something to go on but you have nothing. Please do educate me more on what high tier finance companies do though, I'm sure you're next statement will be that you work for one. :) 

Nothing strange here, other than your reaction. 

The only strange thing here is that I can somehow see you tipping your fedora whilst saying "I have some great ideas for video games". 

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