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My slightly less capslock thoughts on enchanting

69 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

7 billion people can play roulette game in same time for few years and most likely noone will achieve that, but somehow one BDO player got it easy... Yea sounds like believable...

as you say. there is close to 0% chance that OP story is completely true and referring to 43 DUO fails in a row.

Edited by magret

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Posted

Man you are idiot its obvious that with insane luck you can win in roulette 5 or 6 times in row... But difference between 6 times (around 0,015 [in other words 1,5%] chance) and 43 times (around 1,13 E-13 chance) is so big that its next to impossible to achieve that!! Find at least one guy in mankind history who achieved to win or loose in roulette (or flip coin game)  43th times in row... It never happened and will most likely not happen in next 1000 years of our history, but ofc one guy who play BDO just achieved that... 

If you still don't understand that these low chances are (and I will bold it again) BEFORE he starts enchanting you have never study statistics in your life.

Let's say he fails once, the next time he enchants the chance is still 33% or whatever your example was because the probability is the probability of success knowing that you have failed. And as you know that you have failed that chances is not 0.67 anymore is 1.

Do that 43 times and every time he fails he knows that he has failed so he still has a 0.33 probability. Thinking that he would have had to succeed after 42 times of failures because you think that the probability of failing 43 times in a row is the same as the probability to succeed on the 43th enchant knowing that he has failed on the 42th previous ones is the gambler's fallacy.

You must be one of those guys that when you a lot of RED on the roulette start to gamble on BLACK because you think it will have more chance.

I'll give you another easy example so you can understand the gambler's fallacy. Assume that he has a 32 sided die and he has 32 rolls to win. The probability to win is 1 - (31/32)^32 = 63.79%. Now assume that he failed the first roll which will happen 96.87% of the times. In your world you would think that as he has failed now he has more chances of winning but the truth is that his chances now are 1-(31/32)^31 = 62.62%

So what happens previously has no effect on his chances, it even decreases them because he has less rolls. So it's the same with enchanting you think that the chances to fail 43 times in a row are impossible and they might be, but that's just BEFORE you start enchanting, once you know that you have failed of succeeded the probability for the next enchant to fail or succeed is the same!

I can recommend you a book from Rohatgi & Saleh called introduction to probability and statistics so you can be introduced in the wonderful world of statistics!

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Posted

7 billion people can play roulette game in same time for few years and most likely noone will achieve that, but somehow one BDO player got it easy... Yea sounds like believable...

My point remains the same ... it's still possible even if it happens once to one person in 250 billion years. It's still possible.

But I don't want to argue with that anymore, untill I see proof of OP, using 43 of those stones in a row and fail every one of them.

It's more likely that OP is lying xD 

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Posted (edited)

-snip-

Thing is he doesnt have finite number of rolls... So you cant lower his chance with each consecutive roill, bcs he aint nearing a chance of that last win/loss coin toss...

Also while every attempt do have 2/3 chance of failing as you said, probability of this whole scenario happening is, as Dorsai said, isnt it? Ofc you have 50-50 chance with every coin toss... But there is no chance in hell you will get head 40 times in a row...

(Btw just for fun and curiosity - you can probbaly correct me here, bcs its many years since i was doin some practical math [chemistry and physics just look like that T_T ] - i just used your way of counting, expecting his 43 rolls to be the maximum. There was 3.E-8 chance of not succeeding that 2/3 chance roll in 43 tries - 99.99999997% chance of success. Ofc it goes down to those 33% with 43rd attempt... But still chance of this scenario occuring should be almost imposible, no?)

My point remains the same ... it's still possible even if it happens once to one person in 250 billion years. It's still possible.

But I don't want to argue with that anymore, untill I see proof of OP, using 43 of those stones in a row and fail every one of them.

It's more likely that OP is lying xD 

I build 40 FS tryin to +12 a weapon... Then got up to +15 with 5 more stones tryin to build those FS again... Anything can happen... But it shouldnt happen this often... I bet you had sth similar to happen to you at least once as well...

Edited by RoakOriginal

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Posted (edited)

If you still don't understand that these low chances are (and I will bold it again) BEFORE he starts enchanting you have never study statistics in your life.

Let's say he fails once, the next time he enchants the chance is still 33% or whatever your example was because the probability is the probability of success knowing that you have failed. And as you know that you have failed that chances is not 0.67 anymore is 1.

Do that 43 times and every time he fails he knows that he has failed so he still has a 0.33 probability. Thinking that he would have had to succeed after 42 times of failures because you think that the probability of failing 43 times in a row is the same as the probability to succeed on the 43th enchant knowing that he has failed on the 42th previous ones is the gambler's fallacy.

You must be one of those guys that when you a lot of RED on the roulette start to gamble on BLACK because you think it will have more chance.

I'll give you another easy example so you can understand the gambler's fallacy. Assume that he has a 32 sided die and he has 32 rolls to win. The probability to win is 1 - (31/32)^32 = 63.79%. Now assume that he failed the first roll which will happen 96.87% of the times. In your world you would think that as he has failed now he has more chances of winning but the truth is that his chances now are 1-(31/32)^31 = 62.62%

So what happens previously has no effect on his chances, it even decreases them because he has less rolls. So it's the same with enchanting you think that the chances to fail 43 times in a row are impossible and they might be, but that's just BEFORE you start enchanting, once you know that you have failed of succeeded the probability for the next enchant to fail or succeed is the same!

I can recommend you a book from Rohatgi & Saleh called introduction to probability and statistics so you can be introduced in the wonderful world of statistics!

What are you talking about? When did i said that i think its impossible to get 43 fail after he failed 42 times already? All time im talking about his chances before he started to enchant, its obvious!! Your whole lecture is completely useless, cause you failed and now you try to put in my mouth words i never said!!  Im not guy who think that after 5,6 red it must be black now, whole your lecture have nothing to do with what im saying!! ofc all that time im talking about his chances to fail 43th times in row BEFORE he even started to enchant!!

Edited by Dorsai

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Posted

this thread should be closed with the following statement,

 

 

Rome wasen't built in a day and no doubt under all construction jobs exspecially with technology back then many things shattered, irl is a grind why shouldent a game be?

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Posted

Rome wasen't built in a day and no doubt under all construction jobs exspecially with technology back then many things shattered, irl is a grind why shouldent a game be?

Indeed, but I do wish downgrading wouldn't be an option.

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Posted

Failed TET on like every item, ive to admit it kinda killed my motivation to play the game. Ive been plaiyng a lot more casual ever since cause i couldnt be arsed anymore

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Posted (edited)

Failed pen and not more than a 50 stack, you deserve failing :-)

I failed PENs at 139 stacks and that is not what i was complain about. I was complaining that after a failed TET/PEN  a hidden system kicks in that prevents you from enchanting the item back to TET/TRI/DUO. It happened to me a couple of times already.

My point remains the same ... it's still possible even if it happens once to one person in 250 billion years. It's still possible.

But I don't want to argue with that anymore, untill I see proof of OP, using 43 of those stones in a row and fail every one of them.

It's more likely that OP is lying xD 

Well if log system worked a little better i would post you  the 43 fails but it is impossible. Here however are some of the events that lead to failed PENs to bug out. I assure you that i am not a scrub making shit up.

2pt8p6b.jpg

Edited by Gwynbleys

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Posted

I was complaining that after a failed TET/PEN  a hidden system kicks in that prevents you from enchanting the item back to TET/TRI/DUO. It happened to me a couple of times already.

 

A year ago wasn't there some glitch with getting killed and deleveling a reblath from +15 giving it penalties to FS %?

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Posted (edited)

A year ago wasn't there some glitch with getting killed and deleveling a reblath from +15 giving it penalties to FS %?

Its not a glitch and yes its still there. You go negative Karma and die to delevel it, and the more times you de-level the easier it gets to enchant it. So i know for a fact a system that tempers with item's success rates is there an is real.

And if it goes one way it may as well go the other way too

 

Edited by Gwynbleys

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Posted

i enchant to tri and buy a tet.

everything tri is a solid base to pvp.

example: tet ultimate greatsword tri'ed goes for 310m whereas my tet had cost 671m.

payed 361m for the tri-tet enchant. considering the enhancement chances, cost of memfrags and upgrade stones i think this is not only the cheapest method, but also the least frustrating :) 

 

i like the enhancement system with its flaws, it gives players a variety of ways to go forward with their gear process, it has risk vs reward and lets be honest it is exciting as hell to watch that freaking bar go up when you know what you have to loose :D all the more awesome it is when it jumps up.

 

dont try above tet and have a nice eve lads :D 

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Posted

this thread should be closed with the following statement,

 

 

Rome wasen't built in a day and no doubt under all construction jobs exspecially with technology back then many things shattered, irl is a grind why shouldent a game be?

Because people generally play games to have fun- not be annoyed. I agree with the OP to an extent as well. This game is extrodinarily gear focused when it comes to PvP, and even somewhat in PvE. The RNG needs to be reduced, and the chances need to be increased. The Enhancement system is why the majority of players left the game, and people are coming back because it's a bit easier. As soon as all these players encounter the huge RNG again, they're most likely gone. As MMO players most of us are used to grinding hours a day, but at least we know we're working towards something. In BDO you can grind hours a day, and get nothing. Not even life is that brutal. 

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Posted (edited)

I failed to TRI my liverto 13 times. Then I failed to PRI awk crescent blade 18 times.

F!

Edited by mickey3333
Correct number lol

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Posted (edited)

I dont see an issue with putting in time to get something in a game the issue with BDO is that this game does not respect your time and in fact due to how enchanting works espcially accessories these things are the bane of my life its even worse then trying armor/weps I had 24 red coral earrings 2 days ago and started to enchant them last  nite I had 4 of them and had failed TRI read coral earrings 2 times.

Still dont change the fact that the game sucks big monkey balls in terms of time/effort invested for what meager returns you get I still get a good chuckle from people who think people feel "entitled" in BDO for wanting returns for their investments maybe if you played a month or two this might be true. However when you have  been playing for a long time and fail to see your efforts being rewarded there are better things to do it does not help that BDO lvling/grinding in BDO lacks any sense of challange in the sense that mobs are braindead in the game and its all about killing millions of them to get enough resoures to try gambling gear again not to mention the real "effort" you put into the game is just to keep grinding the mobs you already have been grinding. 

The best way of playing the game is a mix between grinding and then just doing lifeskills seeing as most people are going to get burnt out playing when they spend hundreds of hours actively playing and actually can end up being worse of than when they started or at least this is what happened to me be used to be 8-10 hours a day at pirates then I took a break for a while and when I came back I was mainly doing lifeskills and now I am even back grinding again and lvling and doing some RBFs. Overall I am much happier now either enchanting once every week or saving silver for an item to preorder and if I fail I know I dident spend as much effort and time as I used to before.

I wish gear was not such a big deal in this game but really yes it is a huge deal it seems like if you want to pvp and unless you can nolife the game or are blessed by RNG doing competitive PvP is just pipe dream at best it seems everytime I move forward the goal posts just keep moving fun getting to 220ap knowing that its not good enough. I just hope that when I finally reach 240ap that having 240ap wont be irrelevant by that time.

Edited by Zeel
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Posted

after a failed TET/PEN  a hidden system kicks in that prevents you from enchanting the item back to TET/TRI/DUO

lol do you also believe in flying saucers? :)

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Posted

 lacks any sense of challange in the sense that mobs are braindead in the game and its all about killing millions of them to get enough resoures to try gambling gear again

Sadly, their AI scripting is pathetic and unlikely to change now since better ai scripting means more server side load that they cannot handle.

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Posted

I think this system wo uld be pretty good overall if they did so you don´t downgrade after trying to upgrade  and don't destroy whatever accessories you´re trying to upgrade . 

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Posted (edited)

Whether the system is rigged/fixed or what have you, here's a couple things I try to consider:

If it's rigged, am I OK with the consequences of getting burned and having a run of bad "luck"?
 a. If yes, then I'll enhance and take the failstacks or take my below "cap" DUO's/TRI'S/TET's on less desirable items (e.g. Grunil, Heve, etc.)
 b. If no, then do I have the ->patience<- and control to not enhance, and simply try my best to surmount the rigged/fixed system by trying a different "RNG" system (i.e. market bid competition for an item against other players trying to avoid it as well)

If neither of those approaches are satisfactory, then what baseline/scenario would I be OK with?
For example, if I assume that I will be "unfortunate" during my enhance spree and everything degrades at all stages, then how can I avoid losing stats?
The only real solution here I think is to have back up pieces for those enhancing runs. The problem here is you can fall prey to the same gambling hook in that you'll feel like you deserve or need a "win" to offset all the !~@$ enhancing you did, and possibly put yourself further in the hole by resorting to enhancing your usable gear.

I can't always follow these approaches consistently, but I think it can be helpful to have at least a personalized "system" to address issues I feel like result in a negative experience. Anyways, good "luck" in the future enhance sessions, most of us are in dire need of it. xD

Edited by Daeus

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