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Year 2 Mega Horse Breeding Thread

2,805 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Yes it could.  I didn't include the training exp for char which is highlighted in bright yellow (specifically that our training skill is increased by 10+%)on the trainer clothing while the other info  is just in a dull colored, you may not bother reading it, paragraph above it :D   So it may mean just those 2 things. 

But...I think in the paragraph I take from it 2 bonuses plus the highlighted bonus making a total of 3 bonuses on the training clothes since they are all worded individually implying each are something different.

Oooh, and I think that was what @Cappuccino was saying to, but the wording of it still confused me for some reason.

Yeah, if you guys are essentially reading three different bonuses, I really couldn't see it meaning anything else other than what you are estimating, that 1 increases Character Skill Experience gain, 1 increases Horse Experience experience gained, and the strangely worded one could mean some form of non-tracked/non-shown skill training value.

I will however make an argument against a proposed theory.

-Horses don't randomly learn skills. This is the biggest argument against random percent to roll. Sometimes when you are horse training you will level 2 horses one right after the other that are carbon copies of each other. They learn the same skills at the same level. I have had up to 3 horses on a wagon follow the same exact pattern of skill learning. This is the biggest revealer in my opinion of how the skill system works:

Now, that is a bit of compelling observation, but I think a strong argument could be made about random algorithms and the flukes based on the initial seed, especially time based algorithm seeds as opposed to entropy based ones. It's the reason why you can see what might seem like a statistical improbability (which would lead you to believe without considering that it is correlation as opposed to causation), is actually not so out of the blue as you might imagine based upon the programming itself. If it was truly random, of course such an event would be extremely improbable.

However, true randomness of code isn't really possible. It's always based on some form of seed, which can lead to cases of extreme improbabilities. It doesn't mean the code is broken, just that without a good working knowledge of numbers based systems that you may interpret the results incorrectly and come to the wrong conclusion based upon the evidence observed.

"The chances of this happening should be 0.00001% and it has happened three times in a row now. That's virtually impossible because other people have reported that, too." Of course this kind of thinking makes a lot of sense, but the problem with projected %s is that it likely shows an average derived from some form of simulation running tens or hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of iterations.

But it won't show the strange occurrences of flukes, streaks, etc.

Just a thought in regards to a potential hole in that theory based upon programming of other such RNG elements.

Edited by SilentZed
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Posted

I am speechless, there is apparently people in this game even worse with names than me. I just bought this "beauty" off the market.

63054672f5aa56e30964e92a54ce6215.png

Why thank you for that name :ph34r:

SNIP

When I used to level horses on wagons, they used to become vastly different, never had any true carbon copy to another.
Most the times on wagons as well as single, they learn skills individually, there's been no set pattern to anything, apart from one time I had 2 horses with the same exact speed, but not same skills.


You gotta keep in mind, RNG = anything can happen, literally anything, you cannot calculate RNG properly.

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Posted (edited)

I am speechless, there is apparently people in this game even worse with names than me. I just bought this "beauty" off the market.

63054672f5aa56e30964e92a54ce6215.png

Why thank you for that name :ph34r:

Jeez.

Worst I have had from bought horses on the market is a T5N named HughMungus.

You gotta keep in mind, RNG = anything can happen, literally anything, you cannot calculate RNG properly.

Oh, my response was mainly for Cappuccino, specifically trying to express that same sentiment, in a manner of speaking, regarding the nature of RNG.

And especially considering we don't know certain percentages and there's no true database keeping track of everyone's submissions (not to mention no real way for us to verify if what is posted is true or not), we can't truly form concrete data (only theories as @Ramblinrose said). I would argue you actually can reliably calculate the average of RNG...if you're the developer. With us it's a lot harder since it's sample taken from a lot of different patches, so we (the players) are exactly in the boat you say in that we cannot calculate it properly.

1. We don't know the exact system, nor is there even proposed %s for us to truly observe from or draw conclusions.

2. That if it's RNG (which is what I believe based on everything submitted), that there will be flukes (both dry streaks and hot streaks) that when taken at face value can truly affect someone's perception of what is actually going on, with their anecdotal experience reinforcing their internal biases/beliefs that may lead them to the wrong conclusion, (i.e. It's not actually random).

As before, the only reason why I think it's important to really discuss this logically is because it truly does affect peoples' real money purchases in regards to breeding.

 

Edited by SilentZed

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Posted

Part of the fun iI have had breeding horses,  is the theories.  How can I improve my chances?  There have been so many theories over the past year from "this stable is luckier than others" to ";low level alts get better results" to...well the list goes on and on. It is fun.

But remember you are entering a big Vegas like casino when you breed horses.  Sometimes the slots are "loose" and you get good results and a possible T8 jackpot.  Other-times, you should get up, walk, no run, and do something else for a while.  You might think you have it all figured out - how to win - but the House aka Pearl Abyss is in control, and the House always wins.  And there is nothing preventing the House from changing the payouts without you knowing, if they think they are not winning enough.. At any time.

Everything you said in your post is so true, and I personally love the theories that get presented. Every time a new theory gets posted, I review patterns I have seen to look for a fit.

But your post especially resonates when it comes to ninja code edits. We don't know how often the odds and percentages change without us knowing. (I have heard plenty of tinfoil related to how they change enhancement and drop rates every few patches. Who knows..) And that does make it challenging to confirm what we see happening in the moment.

"The chances of this happening should be 0.00001% and it has happened three times in a row now. That's virtually impossible because other people have reported that, too." Of course this kind of thinking makes a lot of sense, but the problem with projected %s is that it likely shows an average derived from some form of simulation running tens or hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of iterations.

I don't wagon level horses very often, and it happened twice, and then about 5 times on horses leveled solo one right after the other. And it has also happened to other breeders, surprisingly frequently over the course of the last year especially if it was random. Which is why, after believing for a long time that horses rolled skills randomly, I had to change my opinion based on the evidence. 

Now I concede that even though I believe horses roll a preset hierarchy at the time they are born, there may be randomness applied on which equivalent skill is chosen when a threshold is reached. Even that is a bit of a stretch, just because the statistical odds are still so tiny we would see identical horses multiple times, but I could see it happening if one skill was weighted more than another at a given threshold.

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Posted (edited)

Umm...I know horses get stuck on stones sometimes but I never saw a case like this :'D
And here I was wondering if someone cleared that area x'D
Plus...they arent catchable >___> what a waste
2017-03-16_125245278.thumb.jpg.8ed86a3a5

Edited by Silvite
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Posted

Umm...I know horses get stuck on stones sometimes but I never saw a case like this :'D
And here I was wondering if someone cleared that area x'D
2017-03-16_125245278.thumb.jpg.8ed86a3a5

Hail Horsdra.

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Posted

Umm...I know horses get stuck on stones sometimes but I never saw a case like this :'D
And here I was wondering if someone cleared that area x'D
Plus...they arent catchable >___> what a waste
2017-03-16_125245278.thumb.jpg.8ed86a3a5

I know that spot, we saw also three horses in that stone. The only good thing to do is to kill the horsies :'(

 

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Posted

I know that spot, we saw also three horses in that stone. The only good thing to do is to kill the horsies :'(

 

q___q thats too bad gee I dont remember seeing horses stuck like this in earlier days x'D

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Posted (edited)

@Cappuccino

Now I concede that even though I believe horses roll a preset hierarchy at the time they are born, there may be randomness applied on which equivalent skill is chosen when a threshold is reached. Even that is a bit of a stretch, just because the statistical odds are still so tiny we would see identical horses multiple times, but I could see it happening if one skill was weighted more than another at a given threshold.

A randomized skill template is a good theory, too, but it brings about problems in terms of the how and why. Namely, if that was the case, wouldn't skill gain be far more consistent across virtually all of the horses? Namely in that I am using a costume, have a high training level, etc. and I still get low tier horses I have raised up that are "potatoes".

Perhaps I am misunderstanding exactly what it is your theorizing or the mechanism.

Edited by SilentZed

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Posted

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand I think my T8E numero six also turns out shit... sick and tired of this skill and level bullshit.........

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Posted

@Cappuccino

A randomized skill template is a good theory, too, but it brings about problems in terms of the how and why. Namely, if that was the case, wouldn't skill gain be far more consistent across virtually all of the horses? Namely in that I am using a costume, have a high training level, etc. and I still get low tier horses I have raised up that are "potatoes".

Perhaps I am misunderstanding exactly what it is your theorizing or the mechanism.

Right, what I mean is that say for a t8 horse as an example, there may be 15 possible variations of a skill hierarchy or skill template (like how many total skills it is likely to learn and when), and when it is born one of those templates is randomly rolled. Each tier of horse seems to have its own skill templates. Then while you level the horse you can mildly influence the outcomes with pearl items

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Posted (edited)

Somebody in another thread mentioned a theory about skills having failstacks.  So every time it levels if you don't gain a skill that's a +1 fail to the stack. And that the failstack may even carry over to the next horse you level or if it's on the same wagon.  I think that was the gist of it all.  I thought that was interesting and certainly falls in line with failstacks for all the gear and such.

I have never had horses on my wagons learn all the same skills, no carbon copies.  Many of the same, sure but not all.  I figured some skills are so rare most horses just won't learn them and some so common, most will learn.  If the carbon copies were all of the rarest skills then I might be inclined to think something of that.....

Edited by Starrberry
darn typos

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Posted (edited)

Right, what I mean is that say for a t8 horse as an example, there may be 15 possible variations of a skill hierarchy or skill template (like how many total skills it is likely to learn and when), and when it is born one of those templates is randomly rolled. Each tier of horse seems to have its own skill templates. Then while you level the horse you can mildly influence the outcomes with pearl items

I would say that's a pretty good theory (especially if you have personally seen what you theorize are the same templates over and over again, especially over different days, weeks, months, etc. at the same tier).

It's something that, as I keep breeding myself, I should be able to weigh in as well and see why you and a lot of other people may believe that.

There is still the possibility it's just true RNG, and I will definitely take your theory into consideration as I progress through things and keep posting here =D

Ideally, it would be nice if you were right, because then there would be the possibility that we might know what is a potato or not before investing a solid week training up a single horse.

------------

@Starrberry

If the carbon copies were all of the rarest skills then I might be inclined to think something of that.....

Anecdotal observation is a bit difficult, too, in that the T8 samples of even extremely successful individuals are small and are gotten over long periods of times where things can be changed in the background in terms of how the mechanics work.

One thing I keep seeing, though - and that's LOTS of T8s which have boatloads of skills at maximum level being reported, far more than lower tier horses on average.

Now, there might be a couple of reasons for this:

1. That skill experience definitely is a thing, and that (since most people are a relatively high training level when they get their first T8) training level does impact greatly said skill experience for the horse, which considering the average number of skills a T8 has that I have seen here kind of lends some evidence to the Skill Experience theory.

2. That the higher Tier Horse itself just has a much higher chance at learning skills so, on average it just learns more naturally.

3. That skill templates are a thing, and that perhaps T8s just have better templates?

Has anyone reported or experienced a T8 with only something like 7 skills at maximum level, something that might help to prove that it is all just RNG?

Edited by SilentZed

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Posted

 

Ideally, it would be nice if you were right, because then there would be the possibility that we might know what is a potato or not before investing a solid week training up a single horse.

Yeah, you can.. by level 15 with about 95% accuracy

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Posted

So forget Pegasus.  Just saw this horse as I headed out to fish,  and I want it, plus its already ingame!!!   I call it the RNGesus horse because it walks on water.  I obviously wasted so much time on that Epherian sailboat....when I could have had this all along.  ;)

2017-03-16_120677519.thumb.JPG.a5153397d

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So forget Pegasus.  Just saw this horse as I headed out to fish,  and I want it, plus its already ingame!!!   I call it the RNGesus horse because it walks on water.  I obviously wasted so much time on that Epherian sailboat....when I could have had this all along.  ;)

2017-03-16_120677519.thumb.JPG.a5153397d

OMG. I want that WAY more than I want Pegasus (though I still want Pegasus). If it can move at normal speed along water, that thing will be AMAZING.

Is it a Tier 9? Is it some special skill? I am virtually frothing with wanting to know more =D

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Posted (edited)

 

Has anyone reported or experienced a T8 with only something like 7 skills at maximum level, something that might help to prove that it is all just RNG?

I have a friend that had a white tier 8 with 8 skills total.
But the part of higher tier horses having a higher chance of learning skills is totally true, that's even been in the ingame tips.
There's no max or min limit though, so you can get a godlike horse like my T8E or you can have a T8 with 7 skills.

This game is just pure RNG all over the place. 
This is just random reposting of pics I've posted before but they are relevant.

803607c80b9605fb65ac1f6b286ffa61.png

Here's my T8E, He's literally the smartest horse I've had to date, and I've done 2 rerolls on him.
Most my horses I usually end up using around 8 coupons on to nudge to get the right skills while leveling. Getting 16+ on average.

Right now I am working on a horse that is not cooperating even with coupons, again which I just look at as RNG, cause it was bound to happen, getting only horses with 15+ for Pures and 16+ for non pures was a little on the good side even for using coupons.

My base right now is 25ish horses in total that I've leveled and sold at level 30. Minimum skills was 12 or 13 I believe, which was one I had on a wagon, which I will never do again cause I think wagons are cursed, and that they don't calculate correctly.
Other than that horse all of them have been at 15/16+ as stated.

But yeah heere's a picture of the current horse I am working on that is not cooperating.

e17b81eb9d1b3d775e6f3d11ac2004e9.png
This is the first time I've experienced a horse learning S:Sideways by itself though.

For how the skills work, there's pretty much tiers of skills, from easy to learn and hard to learn, so technically some skills have a higher % of getting learned than others. which is why some trainers experience stopping getting skills at a certain point. Since their trainers don't use coupons and the horse only is lacking the good skills, this is pretty much a proven fact as it's what we see again and again on all horses.

 

Sidenote: Toomanyvaginas gave me a T8! :D:D (the horse I recently bought off the market with the weirdest name)

bd99f6ddc50307552d3e60794bfa0f7d.png

Edited by Someone
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Posted (edited)

For anybody that's looking for a horse breeding data spreadsheet, I've been slowly moving my Excel spreadsheet into Google Sheets, and I now think my Google Sheets version is viable to share. It's lacking personalized reports etc.. (still learning Google Sheets for advanced charting and reporting).

However, for anybody that has a Google account and wants/needs a Google Sheets spreadsheet for tracking their breeding data, I'm relatively confident that this one will work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Tlnc_Yc-8dGvAF1RnbYZfkw7VXIFB69doEtRNxZFmM/edit?usp=sharing

[Caveats for people not well versed in Google Docs or Spreadsheets in general]

  • Note that I set it for viewing only because it's just a copy to use as a template. So you'll need to save it to your own Google Drive/Docs. I did this to keep it a virgin template available to anybody who wants or needs it.
  • I've included three arbitrary and completely made up entries to demonstrate the formatting (dynamic font colors etc, based upon input etc..)
  • Before deleting the current content/rows, create a new row for your first entry (or just replace/overwrite one of the rows with your own actual data) before deleting the extraneous template rows.
  • Row 3 is hidden for a reason. I'd recommend not un-hiding it as it's the control that maintains functionality. It's basically a row to maintain indefinite repeating formulas with every newly created row/entry (Google Sheets could do better in this aspect). If you're not well versed in spreadsheet software, jacking with this row can give you headaches.
  • There are two sheets in this document. The Breeding Results sheet which contains all the data you wish to track, and the Horse Patterns sheet which is just a convenient layout of all the horse coats organized by tier and the generally accepted letter values to distinguish coats. The simplest way to enter an entry into the Coats column of the Breeding Results sheet, is to go to the Horse Patterns sheet, select the horse pattern, then Copy (<Ctrl-C> or Right Click and select copy), then go back to the Breeding Results sheet,select the cell you need it to go into and Paste (<Ctrl-V> or Right Click and select paste).
  • You'll notice that when you hover over any horse coat in the horse patterns sheet that there will be a pop-up that gives you the horse's color theory pattern. The numbers are in the same order as you'd expect to enter them in the Breeding Results page. I added this as a measure so that you don't have to browse to the somethinglovely site to grab the information. Those color values aren't automagically entered, and you have to enter them yourself. It's there as a convenience. In a future version I may add the ability to automatically fill in the values, but I'm still working out the logistics of doing that.
  • Additionally, you'll note that that same popup will appear after pasting into the Breeding Results sheet. Convenient for you to verify that your entries are correct.
  • The "Color Theory" columns automatically calculate/sum your Male/Female color values for you to review when you receive your foals. Initially I'd formatted the Foal's color values to hilight which colors were probably picked. But it made viewing the spreadsheet a bit of a headache. So I removed that.
  • The date column is formatted so that you enter dates with the Day/Month/Year format. All that's required is that you use the slash (/). Number values will be truncated. So if you enter 02/03/2017 it'll automatically reformat to 2/3/17.

Any other questions, feel free to ask.

Also, I set the permissions for sharing the document to "Anybody with the link". So if there are any issues accessing it, please let me know. I can't test the "view only" options etc, since I'm the actual owner (and I'm too lazy to log out and test it for myself), so if anybody can verify that it's "View Only" I'd appreciate it.

Edited by DenverRalphy
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Posted (edited)

Finally!  I got my second T8 tonight from my T7I and a T7G named Aeryeen... coincidence?  I don't think so...  Thank you for my newest baby @Aeryeen!

2017-03-16_102502076.JPG

Edited by Shaynae
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Posted

Things look pretty good for my T8 black. 

Hope it manages to fill out with the rest of the skills before it hits 30!

horse.jpg

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Posted (edited)

Here's something to consider on Hope failstacks...

I have 2 failstacks on my life-skiller toon (I don't enchant items much, as I've really just never really made the attempt yet). Fails appears when I'm in the window where you're looking to swap toons (that little icon that shows how many fails you have). That toon is my horse breeder that has only built failstacks on two failed attempts on Skill Change coupons (and has never attempted echanting/enhancement). So that gets me thinking... hrmmm.. If I have built up failstacks  appearing in the character change window, if I built up failstacks the enhancement way, would that apply and add to it? I mean, why show fails in the character switch window for failed Hope Skill chances if it doesn't? Just curious if anybody's ever looked at that.

I would jump in glee if I found that I could pad the Hope failstack count without having to spend a bajillion dollars on reset coupons.

Edited by DenverRalphy

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Posted

Here's something to consider on Hope failstacks...

I have 2 failstacks on my life-skiller toon (I don't enchant items much, as I've really just never really made the attempt yet). Fails appears when I'm in the window where you're looking to swap toons (that little icon that shows how many fails you have). That toon is my horse breeder that has only built failstacks on two failed attempts on Skill Change coupons (and has never attempted echanting/enhancement). So that gets me thinking... hrmmm.. If I have built up failstacks  appearing in the character change window, if I built up failstacks the enhancement way, would that apply and add to it? I mean, why show fails in the character switch window for failed Hope Skill chances if it doesn't? Just curious if anybody's ever looked at that.

I would jump in glee if I found that I could pad the Hope failstack count without having to spend a bajillion dollars on reset coupons.

If you use a coupon and put a 'hope' on a skill that you do not get and the horse still is not max level, then when you level that horse, if they do not get that skill they add to that hope failstack.  This is one reason I don't agree to the preset skills at birth.  I do, however think there are horses born with better 'luck'.  That's my tinfoil hat theory.

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Posted

If you use a coupon and put a 'hope' on a skill that you do not get and the horse still is not max level, then when you level that horse, if they do not get that skill they add to that hope failstack.  This is one reason I don't agree to the preset skills at birth.  I do, however think there are horses born with better 'luck'.  That's my tinfoil hat theory.

Yeah, but my initial point was that when you swap toons/characters, you get to see how many Fails they've already had. Whether it's from Hope Skill fails, or Enhancement fails, it shows up under the same icon. So I was just curious if anybody's padded their Hope Fails with Enchancement Fails (failstacking is a huge business in BDO) as they show up as the same statistic. So what happens of somebody who wants to use their Hope chance, and pads it with other fail stacks.

 

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Posted (edited)

Cmon cmon T6/T7s level up! seeing all these T7/T8s being bred this past week I have a feeling in game RNG will change :ph34r:

T6G lvl 25 & T6J lvl 27

T7D & T7E both lvl 25

My last T7 breedings gave me back 2x T6 females.... :/

 

Edited by Aastrid

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Conqueror's pack player and horse breeder from day 1.... Leveled from pro3 to art2 without ever catching a horse back in the day (now art5). Followed all breeder's posted stats as well as my own related to skills. Stats show that coupons do not raise the total number of skills learned, but improve the skills the horse knows, which is exactly what I said in my post.

I am basically as veteran as they come.

And as for the clothes, they may not help. All I was quoting is what the clothes themselves say.

I didn't mean to come off like a jackass, for that I apologize.  My responses are kind of direct...too direct sometimes.  I simply disagree with your assessment that horse skills gains aren't random, and that there's some hidden skills exp being gained causing a wagon full of horses to skill up together (which is very very rare).  I think horse skills gains are very much random, it's the only way Pearl Abyss is able to keep the algorithm from being cracked.

Also I disagree with you saying using skills change coupons during leveling won't help.  In my experience, and many others, it does help a lot of the times.  Sometimes they don't help you gain a lot of skills, but you do end up gaining more good skills.  Like I said before, for a courser to be a courser, the horse doesn't need 18+ skills, it just needs courser skills.

Anyways cheers, us breeders have some of the worst RNG in this game.  I blame the system, not people.

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