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Do horse skill failstacks exist? + POLL for T8 owners


Your horse performance   23 votes

  1. 1. I lvl up my T8 to lvl 30 and.....

    • I got 14 and less skills (lvl up manually)
      7
    • I got 14 and less skills (lvl up on wagon)
      1
    • I got 15 and more skills (lvl up manually)
      9
    • I got 15 and more skills (lvl up on wagon)
      5
    • I got 14 and less skills on my T8 using failstaks from other horses
      0
    • I got 15 and more skills on my T8 using failstaks from other horses
      1

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

18 posts in this topic

Posted

I never really had a chance to fully verify this idea (though I'm going to soon), but maybe breeders will help me with some statistics for now.
Each time when you lvl up your horse, you get a message "The chance to learn new skill has increased", and then if you learn something, it notifies you. The assumption is following: most likely there is a hidden failstack for skill learning.

I.e. Horse A reached lvl 5 and haven't learned  a single skill. It got a 5 failstacks which increased probability of skill learning by X%. Then on lvl 6 it lvls up, gets 6th failstack, system then again rolls the dice and bam!, it learned the skill. Failstaks fall to 0.

What is actually the most important if these theoretical failstacks purely belong to this particular Horse A, or they can be used on a Horse B too.
Now the question is: can wagon training be more effective for skill learning? I started researching this theory after I noticed that almost each my wagon contains 2 potatoes and 2 decent horses. This actually can be explained by my assumption, since "potatoes" could donate their failstacks to other two horses.

I understand that a lot of RNG is involved, and I personally got a T7 with 14 skills through single riding, and then T8 with 11 skills doing the same.... But I still would love to hear from people who were lvling up their T8 horses. If T8 is lvled up among lower tier "potatoes" they might get some stacks since they train slower. So the question to my breeding colleagues, have you noticed any difference when you lvl up your T8 though wagon and single-riding? Also have you tried to fail a few times on getting skills on your other horses before lvling up your T8?

Disclaimer: I don't claim that my theory works and I understand that a lot or info must be gathered to check that. However BDO has a lot of hidden stats that we might not know about, so I'm trying to dig at least a little bit to understand the system. Also I omit costumes factor here since from my own experience can say that even if they have impact it's probably +0.5% to the chance to learn a skill.

P.S. Would be great if devs would take a look here and enlighten us a little bit.

 

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Posted

1431530562676

Seriously tho, it's an interesting theory, would love for other players input so we can prove or disprove this theory.

(Call me maso if you want, but I prefer the player to dicover hidden mechanics that being feeded the information)

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Posted

Seriously tho, it's an interesting theory, would love for other players input so we can prove or disprove this theory.

(Call me maso if you want, but I prefer the player to dicover hidden mechanics that being feeded the information)

Well, got first results and they do not support the theory. Leveled up 2 T6 horses with no skill gain, then lvled up T8 to 2nd lvl and it didn't learn anything.

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Posted

Do you think three points of data is sufficient to even decide on whether or not they support the theory?

Statistical data requires... a lot of data points to be significant.

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Posted

I didn't say that. Just trying to gather all what's possible for now.

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Posted

Well, got first results and they do not support the theory.

you literally did say that xD

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Posted

you literally did say that xD

Data can support or not support the theory. You perceive "support" as "proof". Those are two different things.

When there is enough support data the theory is proved correct. If most data doesn't support the theory it's proven wrong.

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Posted

Not sure how to vote on the poll, but my results having leveled all T8's solo riding:

1st horse 18 skills
2nd 17
3rd 15
4th 14
5th currently riding & leveling

Haven't noticed failstacks working at all, my first 2 I leveled were so smart on its own and just kept pumping out skills.  The 3rd was quite dumb and only had 10 skills by level 20, and even with hope stacks on skills it just didn't want to learn much at all.

I wagon level T7's and below, reason for solo T8 is because I want to keep an eye out on their skills development.  When it comes to Coursers, only T8 Coursers matter.  As for wagoned horses, there was never any pattern to the number of skills horses learned.  I've seen a wagon full of 4 Einsteins, but also a wagon full of 4 Fennels.

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Posted

The assumption is following: most likely there is a hidden failstack for skill learning.

Hope stacks are for % leveling boost and I dare say, are very much like a 'failstack'

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Posted

I might be reading your OP wrong... but from my experience... Hope Failstacks don't apply to skills learned from normal leveling. Only Skill Change Coupons.

I've had a few stacks from skills change coupons where I didn't get what I wanted. The horse manages to learn the skill I'd last Hoped for on its own through normal leveling, and the failstack still exists. So I roll it over into the next Hope Skill I want.

 

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Posted

but from my experience... Hope Failstacks don't apply to skills learned from normal leveling. Only Skill Change Coupons.

I am pretty damn sure they only apply to skill %gain chance on leveling. They might be broken, but a dev has said they are not for skill change coupons.

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Posted

I might be reading your OP wrong... but from my experience... Hope Failstacks don't apply to skills learned from normal leveling. Only Skill Change Coupons.

I've had a few stacks from skills change coupons where I didn't get what I wanted. The horse manages to learn the skill I'd last Hoped for on its own through normal leveling, and the failstack still exists. So I roll it over into the next Hope Skill I want.

 

Confirmed before that hope stacks do not affect skills change coupons, they are only to increase (ever so slightly) the chance you have at learning them while leveling up the horse.

People flipped when they heard this because everybody thought hope stacks were for skills change coupons.

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Posted (edited)

I am pretty damn sure they only apply to skill %gain chance on leveling. They might be broken, but a dev has said they are not for skill change coupons.

Wha? The ONLY time you get to choose a hope skill is during a Skill Change attempt. There's virtually zero mechanic to choose a hope skill outside of trying to use a Skill Change coupon. I'm gonna give you the benefit of the doubt as recalling it incorrectly. Hope skills do not apply to normal leveling of horses. In fact, if you ever click on a Hope button, you even get a popup stating that you must be trying to make a Change via a coupon.

 

Confirmed before that hope stacks do not affect skills change coupons, they are only to increase (ever so slightly) the chance you have at learning them while leveling up the horse.

People flipped when they heard this because everybody thought hope stacks were for skills change coupons.

Nope. Wrong. Love ya dude. But wrong. Hope is only applied to skill change coupons. Doesn't apply to normal leveling. The mechanics of the game itself doesn't allow you to use Hope in normal leveling. Pops an error message and all.

 

 

Edited by DenverRalphy

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Posted (edited)

 

Data can support or not support the theory. You perceive "support" as "proof". Those are two different things.

When there is enough support data the theory is proved correct. If most data doesn't support the theory it's proven wrong.

I'm not sure you've done a lot of statistical analysis, my man. I understand, "support" isn't "proof," but let me give you a relevant example where it's easy to see that you've taken too few data points to know whether or not the data supports the theory:

Let's say your chances of learning a skill are 5%—and we want to know whether or not failing increases those chances by another, say, 5%. You level up two T6s w/o learning a skill, meaning, by your hypothesis, your chances of learning a skill are now 15%. You level up a T8, and don't learn a skill. In this case, you do not know whether or not the data supports your hypothesis. Why?

  • If your hypothesis is true, then there's an 85% chance your T8 does not learn a skill
  • If your hypothesis is false, then there's a 95% chance your T8 does not learn a skill

Either way, the chances of not learning a skill are high, and collecting a single point of data doesn't give you enough to know whether or not said data supports your hypothesis. You just don't know, and you need a lot more data to get the margins correct. Your hypothesis in this case, as stated by your original post, is...

The assumption is following: most likely there is a hidden failstack for skill learning.

You've levelled two T6s, then levelled a T8 and didn't learn a skill. This doesn't tell you anything about whether or not there's a hidden failstack. What it does tell you is, if there is a failstack, that failstack doesn't give you a 100% chance to learn a skill after two failures (or, similarly, it doesn't give you a +50% chance after one failure). But, as of now, no one (including you) knows whether or not your current set of data supports or doesn't support your hypothesis. For this, you need more data.

See what I'm saying?

Edited by AmagicalFishy

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Posted

Wha? The ONLY time you get to choose a hope skill is during a Skill Change attempt. There's virtually zero mechanic to choose a hope skill outside of trying to use a Skill Change coupon. I'm gonna give you the benefit of the doubt as recalling it incorrectly. Hope skills do not apply to normal leveling of horses. In fact, if you ever click on a Hope button, you even get a popup stating that you must be trying to make a Change via a coupon.

 

Nope. Wrong. Love ya dude. But wrong. Hope is only applied to skill change coupons. Doesn't apply to normal leveling. The mechanics of the game itself doesn't allow you to use Hope in normal leveling. Pops an error message and all.

 

 

Well tbh I also did read that confirmation from dev months back x'D so that's what I always told ppl too lol

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Posted

 

Nope. Wrong. Love ya dude. But wrong. Hope is only applied to skill change coupons. Doesn't apply to normal leveling. The mechanics of the game itself doesn't allow you to use Hope in normal leveling. Pops an error message and all.

 

 

 

I like ya Ralphy so I went and dug up the thread for you:  http://forum.blackdesertonline.com/index.php?/topic/78804-horse-skill-change-coupons-what-the-hell-daum/&page=1

 

I put in a ticket and the gm said this.

 

The outcome of horse skill resets is completely random and isn't influenced by hope which only influences skills learned on leveling up the horse

 

I'm beyond pissed.

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Posted

 

I'm not sure you've done a lot of statistical analysis, my man. I understand, "support" isn't "proof," but let me give you a relevant example where it's easy to see that you've taken too few data points to know whether or not the data supports the theory:

Let's say your chances of learning a skill are 5%—and we want to know whether or not failing increases those chances by another, say, 5%. You level up two T6s w/o learning a skill, meaning, by your hypothesis, your chances of learning a skill are now 15%. You level up a T8, and don't learn a skill. In this case, you do not know whether or not the data supports your hypothesis. Why?

  • If your hypothesis is true, then there's an 85% chance your T8 does not learn a skill
  • If your hypothesis is false, then there's a 95% chance your T8 does not learn a skill

Either way, the chances of not learning a skill are high, and collecting a single point of data doesn't give you enough to know whether or not said data supports your hypothesis. You just don't know, and you need a lot more data to get the margins correct. Your hypothesis in this case, as stated by your original post, is...

You've levelled two T6s, then levelled a T8 and didn't learn a skill. This doesn't tell you anything about whether or not there's a hidden failstack. What it does tell you is, if there is a failstack, that failstack doesn't give you a 100% chance to learn a skill after two failures (or, similarly, it doesn't give you a +50% chance after one failure). But, as of now, no one (including you) knows whether or not your current set of data supports or doesn't support your hypothesis. For this, you need more data.

See what I'm saying?

*Cough*.. woman actually.

I see you point now and I should admit that you might be right. It actually might not be doable at all since we don't know whether there are other factors too that can influence the result (like rumored hidden "intellectual" stat of each separate horse,  etc). Amount of observations is also a problem since there aren't many people who would be willing to  do that and I alone would go nuts trying to make 1000+ records. And the last thing is in that all this can be done for nothing since it might turn out that even if it exists, the % is so small, that it's not worth the time to build those FS (if they exist) and it it's easier to get another T8 for courser attempt...

Hopefully one day someone will datamine information about this, as it was done with horse colors.

 

I guess, topic can be closed, unless someone wants to add something.

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Posted

I would like to believe. But, there's also a tooltip that simply states "Horses randomly learn skills as they level up." What can we make out of that? So I take it all with a grain of salt.

 

I just don't see why they would implement and hide such a convoluted system, and if they did, why it would do such a good job of appearing to be random that an army of horse-breeders still hasn't cracked the code.

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