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Do you think BDO will last long enough?.

102 posts in this topic

Posted

Tera is somehow not dying according to these numbers.

I so agree with you on his issue. MMO's don't need a huge player base to continue running. This game is in much better shape than many other mmo's that are still fine even with lower playerbases. No matter what data you provide folks will still say dead game since they remember headstart/beta/release player base. When everyone started out fresh and was clumped together and use that as a mental reference point to base their opinion from.

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Posted

Starting populatiosn has nothing to do with quality of a game..

Tera was released in January 2011, it went on Steam in May 2015...

 

Are you really basing the "Declining" Argument around a comparison of an All-time peak Vs Every day peak ? By that logic every single MMORPG on market is "declining".

Apart from the two examples I gave you, FF14 and ESO which have far exceeded their original numbers and are showing fluctuations in populations. They have growth and decline that coincides with patches, but in each case they far exceed their starting numbers. Tera has done the exact opposite of this. Tera is not dead, it'll never die until the servers shut down however it is dying and has seen a SHARP decline in population as shown by the steam numbers you're trying to argue don't show a decline (apparently numbers work differently in your world).

If you compare the steam numbers, the fact that 4 MAJOR staff members quit within 6 months, the decline in google search analytics, the decline in Twitch stats, the decline in the subreddit, the fact that there's a visual change in the number of people who at AFK area in Highwatch and Velia AND the fact the servers merged (BDO has the same number of channels as before in case you sue this argument); it paints a picture that Tera is dying. 

Oh, it's okey i actually admitted the Brawler Nerf came late, in comparison to the previous Classes, and already gave you credit for that point.

You said the changes happened in ONE single month, Brawler changes came after 3 months and Gunner/Reaper changes came 2 months after. You then tried to say that you actually meant a relative month when I quoted your exact wording above. 

Also, i fail to see why would Black Desert have any rights to criticize other games Classes Balance ?

You're the one who brought up the time-scale when you tried to lie and state that changes in Tera happened within a month, then quickly changed your tune when I pointed out that this is false. I'm more than happy to have a discussion about this, but I'd rather not have to teach you how numbers work; not if you continue to lie so much. :) 

I so agree with you on his issue. MMO's don't need a huge player base to continue running. This game is in much better shape than many other mmo's that are still fine even with lower playerbases. No matter what data you provide folks will still say dead game since they remember headstart/beta/release player base. When everyone started out fresh and was clumped together and use that as a mental reference point to base their opinion from.

I think you're mistaking my point here, I was being sarcastic. Tera IS dying, however it'll take years for it be considered dead seeing as only a small population of big spenders is needed to keep the servers on. Tera also has the added bonus of being developed and published by the same company in NA as well as a developer who is more than happy to steal content from other developers. 

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Posted

 

Tera was released in January 2011, it went on Steam in May 2015...

 

Irrelevant... Change of platform (or in this case provider?) is practically the same thing... They are taking over, so they have to lure people into it, since their profit depends on their population... How big those numbers were, is once again dependent on work of marketing team... Most casuals have no idea about any games on the market, until some iformation is served to them by a means of advertisement... Previous succes/fail of have effect on knowledgable part of players, but most of gamers aint part of that group...

My point stays still... Beggining = marketing, later trend = quality... You can take just 2 points, since it can fluctuate due to updates, events, advertisement etc (just look at what peon did with BDO)... Look at whole line showing a state of population and hen you can talk about growth or decline... In this specific case graphic provided by Artorias is indeed the stabilized one... No growth, but no decline either...

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Posted

 

Tera IS dying, however it'll take years for it be considered dead seeing as only a small population of big spenders is needed to keep the servers on.

A producer for DDO explained this to me in detail many years ago. strangely enough that game is still running too :D

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Posted

Gamers are never going to be satisfied. They keep jumping from game to game so the companies have to keep up with them.

Imagine if BDO wasn't as beautiful as it is graphically speaking. I think a lot of people would've left due to how frustrating the RNG is.

The key points are graphics (+ char customization) and world exploration, also obviously attracts people if there is PvP because gamers are naturally competitive whether it be showing off their gear, solo'ing or in this case beating up players.

If the "odd number" servers are fixed within this year I estimate it to live very long, until the next "big" game that needs even better PC resources comes out, then people will flock at it like flies on a lantern.

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Posted

Gamers are never going to be satisfied. They keep jumping from game to game so the companies have to keep up with them.

Imagine if BDO wasn't as beautiful as it is graphically speaking. I think a lot of people would've left due to how frustrating the RNG is.

The key points are graphics (+ char customization) and world exploration, also obviously attracts people if there is PvP because gamers are naturally competitive whether it be showing off their gear, solo'ing or in this case beating up players.

If the "odd number" servers are fixed within this year I estimate it to live very long, until the next "big" game that needs even better PC resources comes out, then people will flock at it like flies on a lantern.

I dont think so... BDOis developing by quite a fast pace... There is big expansion every half a year and they are currently working on improving graphics and game stability... With the income from several regions they can imo keep pace with new releases for few years easily... 

Ofc thats only in case they keep improving or at least working as they are now, without -----ing things up even more...

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Posted

that's a pretty empty argument, others games are successful so this one will be too? that isn't how it works. 

not sure if you're trolling. BDO has been successful for over a year already, not many MMO's can even say that - they usually flop after the 2 month hype release is over because people realize the game actually isn't good. 

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Posted

not sure if you're trolling. BDO has been successful for over a year already, not many MMO's can even say that - they usually flop after the 2 month hype release is over because people realize the game actually isn't good. 

how are you defining successful? the game had a mass exodus, reputation is in shreds, and even their own player statistics suggest they have a really poor player retention rate, if you are putting that on the same level as wow I am astounded. 

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Posted

FF14 currently has a higher number for 24 hour peak and average player than it started with.

ESO has a MUCH higher number for 24 hour peak an average player than it started with.

Tera has MUCH lower numbers than it started with.

Tera is somehow not dying according to these numbers.

How about non steam players are these counted too?

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Posted

how are you defining successful? the game had a mass exodus, reputation is in shreds, and even their own player statistics suggest they have a really poor player retention rate, if you are putting that on the same level as wow I am astounded. 

Source please? The only statistic they showed was number of players above level 56 which was at 200,000. How do you know every player under 56 isn't active? :) 

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Posted

Games not going to last very long if this lag stays the way it is.

On certain channels Node wars and world bosses are basically unplayable shit shows.

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Posted (edited)

 Apart from the two examples I gave you, FF14 and ESO which have far exceeded their original numbers and are showing fluctuations in populations. They have growth and decline that coincides with patches, but in each case they far exceed their starting numbers. Tera has done the exact opposite of this.  

Feel free to repeats your blatant lies about the game as much as you can, the Steam numbers i showed are still on my side.

You keep bringing this FF XIV and ESO argument, and conveniently ignoring a Major factor :

The Steam numbers from both Final Fantasy & Elder Scrolls are based on their Mega servers, that include both Europe and North America region together ( doubtfully* in case of FF XIV JP servers as well), while in the case of Tera the pity numbers you insist on looking at are from 1 Single region with Very strong restricted access.

Logically speaking, both FF Realm Reborn & Elder Scrolls on Steam have more access in comparison to Tera, and both also launched at earlier dates, there is nothing magical if their numbers are higher.

All.thumb.PNG.d9df18e807c371097e94893803

 they far exceed their starting numbers.

I can see numbers aren't exactly your strongest point, so let me help you : 

Looking at the Blue Graph of Elder Scrolls Online, the game started with an average of ~39k, now sitting at ~27k, your statement of "exceed their starting numbers" is as accurate as "Tera on the other hand has seen nothnig but a decline" which the green clearly prove it false with it Stability.

Also, since you ignored my previous point of it Korean ranking, i am going to post it once again : 테라 = Tera is Ranked #11.

Instead of your provocative style, mine is cold enough to present numbers, and take a step aside.

I can see your trying hard enough to distract attention by bringing as much side discussions as possible, but you need to take it step by step, and so far your initial point of a "population decline" has been a total failure.

Source please? 

Funny enough for you to ask someone for Sources when you based your entire "Tera dying" argument on Steam Data, which you know very well present a small fraction of the game Population, and conveniently forget to ask yourself on "Sources" about the Main population who doesn't touch Steam. 

Irrelevant... Change of platform (or in this case provider?) is practically the same thing...

Just to Clarify the idea, Tera's-Na steam release wasn't a change of Platform or anything, it was simply a growth opportunities to open up new horizons for the game, offering extra advertisement, and allowing new options to the cash shop .. However it faced several obstacles later, and under the pressure of other publisher on different regions that doesn't have a steam version, the access to the Na version of Steam was heavily restricted after 1 Month (Release at 5th May - Restriction at 11th June 2015).

As i mentioned on the first Post, Steam numbers were never a representation of the game population, but they are still good enough to refute baseless claims about the game.

Edited by Artorias
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Posted

Feel free to repeats your blatant lies about the game as much as you can, the Steam numbers i showed are still on my side.

I'm done, I have no qualms arguing with someone who disagrees with me or will never come round to my way of thinking. I however have to give up when someone is trying to convince people that 11,534 average players is a SMALLER number than 2,161, even more so when they call me a liar for saying that it's actually larger. This isn't some form of theoretical maths problems, nor is it an opinion based answer; it's simple mathematics that children are taught from a young age. I could go into most primary schools and I'm pretty sure the majority of children would understand that if Susan had 11,000 apples and Mike had 2,000 then Susan has more apples. 

For others reading the thread, I've linked the data enough but here's an image to really hammer home the point Artorias is trying to make. 

jz5wUf4.png

According to him, the game HAS NOT seen a decline in population despite it losing close to 9,000 average players. I honestly can't get it round my head how someone can sit at their PC, not be trolling and claim that 11,534 is a smaller number 2,161. Even if you look at the game over the Christmas period of 2015 it still had an average of 4,494 players on Steam yet he's claiming this is a smaller number than the current one. 

Funny enough for you to ask someone for Sources when you based your entire "Tera dying" argument on Steam Data, which you know very well present a small fraction of the game Population, and conveniently forget to ask yourself on "Sources" about the Main population who doesn't touch Steam. 

The steam numbers don't show the total population, but they show a percentage of the population and if you see a sudden and continued drop in population then you can extrapolate this and apply it to the main population as well. Someone goes more in depth in this post on the Tera forums. You can't disregard numbers purely because they dispute your point, thankfully that's not how facts work. :) 

If you compare the steam numbers, the fact that 4 MAJOR staff members quit within 6 months, the decline in google search analytics, the decline in Twitch stats, the decline in the subreddit, the fact that there's a visual change in the number of people who at AFK area in Highwatch and Velia AND the fact the servers merged (BDO has the same number of channels as before in case you use this argument); it paints a picture that Tera is dying. 

Please learn to read English, sources were provided in my first reply to you. 

 

Looking at the Blue Graph of Elder Scrolls Online, the game started with an average of ~39k

For others, here's the link to the Steam data for ESO. 

The game started off on Steam in July 2014 with a peak player count of 3,107. In March 2017 it had a peak player count of 13,220.

It has NEVER hit a peak player count of 39,000.

Its current MAXIMUM peak player count is 29,979 which has occurred over the past 30 days.

This...I just don't get it, how can someone be so bad at numbers and then lie on top of it when it's so easily proven. Congratulations Artorias, you're the sole person won this person who has managed to elicit an emotion from on these forums that isn't mild interest. I'm actually quite mad that someone can type the things you do when it can be disproven with the click of a mouse button. 

Please please please reply that you made a typo or that you're reading the charts wrong.

 

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Posted

BDO will without much doubt last a while because every attractive graphic + fight quality ( i only speak about the base gameplay )

And, there is absolutely nothing coming that soon that potentialy could create a mass player exodus.

 

That neither mean this game is the best mmo out there tho. BDO still is poisoned by very well knowed issues ( dumb casino RNG progression / dumb gear2win / p2w & pay or be very inconvenienced / pointless "pvp" / broken balance / average pve content / forced afk game running life skill.. and so on ) that more likely make a lot of player run away from that game

 

imho Without the graphic, open world "modeling" quality, the base gameplay & animation quality, that game, would certainly already be a wasteland

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Posted (edited)

According to him, the game HAS NOT seen a decline in population despite it losing close to 9,000 average players. I honestly can't get it round my head how someone can sit at their PC, not be trolling and claim that 11,534 is a smaller number 2,161.

No wonder you can't get it, logic simply doesn't work that way : you are comparing Launch numbers vs The last 30 days, on top of a side bonus population that is on the very Restricted Steam, and then making conclusion about the game population ..

The Steam data i provided about the game is from the Start up to last month, yet you keep ignoring the long horizontal line that is screaming stability, and choosed to focus on the Steam launch numbers instead.

The game started off on Steam in July 2014 with a peak player count of 3,107. In March 2017 it had a peak player count of 13,220.

It has NEVER hit a peak player count of 39,000.

The ~39k is the number i was given by Steam when Comparing it Graph Data with Tera, feel free to check it out to secure your thoughts about it : 

data.thumb.PNG.4c0275d7c2b2117351a634b0e

I have no interest in Elder Scroll, and Lying is simply isn't my way of argument.

Edited by Artorias
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Posted

Lying is simply isn't my way of argument.

Then why are you comparing SKYRIM, a SINGLE player game?

DvBRos4.png

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Posted

Then why are you comparing SKYRIM, a SINGLE player game?

DvBRos4.png

That Question should be addressed to Steam, admittedly it was my mistake to not pay attention and take notice.

This irrelevant point has no impact on the main Tera's health discussion, that you have yet to prove it "Declining" nature.

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Posted (edited)

Ehy everyone, I am returning to the game and was wondering how things are going. I tried to get back into FFXIV but unfortunately I am not liking how things are turning out and well, Stormblood seems just like Heavensward and..ARR.

I always liked BDO and want to get back into the MMORPG scene for real this time so I am looking for a MMORPG that I'm sure it will last long enough. Why?. Easy, because I think time is precious and I wouldn't want to invest my time on something that may as well close next year. So yes, I'm talking to you guys who've been playing since its release: do you think Pearl Abyss will support it for more than a simple year?. Is there a population big enough to make them produce new, worthy content?. 

 

Sorry for my english by the way!

It'll last a decent while, there's enough going on with the game, it's not the biggest or the best financially stable game but it has the resources to last a good while. Note: Just my assumption based off the current sales of the game, how the game was after p2w was announced, other countries versions of the game and how the game currently is. 

Edited by Silent God

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Posted

I'm done, I have no qualms arguing with someone who disagrees with me or will never come round to my way of thinking. I however have to give up when someone is trying to convince people that 11,534 average players is a SMALLER number than 2,161, even more so when they call me a liar for saying that it's actually larger. This isn't some form of theoretical maths problems, nor is it an opinion based answer; it's simple mathematics that children are taught from a young age. I could go into most primary schools and I'm pretty sure the majority of children would understand that if Susan had 11,000 apples and Mike had 2,000 then Susan has more apples. 

For others reading the thread, I've linked the data enough but here's an image to really hammer home the point Artorias is trying to make. 

jz5wUf4.png

According to him, the game HAS NOT seen a decline in population despite it losing close to 9,000 average players. I honestly can't get it round my head how someone can sit at their PC, not be trolling and claim that 11,534 is a smaller number 2,161. Even if you look at the game over the Christmas period of 2015 it still had an average of 4,494 players on Steam yet he's claiming this is a smaller number than the current one. 

 
 

Please learn to read English, sources were provided in my first reply to you. 

 

For others, here's the link to the Steam data for ESO. 

The game started off on Steam in July 2014 with a peak player count of 3,107. In March 2017 it had a peak player count of 13,220.

It has NEVER hit a peak player count of 39,000.

Its current MAXIMUM peak player count is 29,979 which has occurred over the past 30 days.

This...I just don't get it, how can someone be so bad at numbers and then lie on top of it when it's so easily proven. Congratulations Artorias, you're the sole person won this person who has managed to elicit an emotion from on these forums that isn't mild interest. I'm actually quite mad that someone can type the things you do when it can be disproven with the click of a mouse button. 

Please please please reply that you made a typo or that you're reading the charts wrong.

 

Plunge you are either trolling now, or are even dumber than i though... I seriously wonder what your job is, when you have no idea how math, statistics and data analysis work... And this aint the first occassion...

When talking about trend you cant take 2 numbers randomly in the vaccuum and claim sth... Artorias is right this time with most of the things he is saying... You just have no clue what numbers mean and how they work... :D:D:D Which we knew already.. Just not that it is this serious... Hell even cashiers in supermarkets would probably have better orientation in those links than you...

Market is chaning, playerbase is spreading... Having lower playerbase than few years ago doesnt mean dying... In your eyes WoW is long dead right?

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Posted (edited)

 

BDO isn't going anywhere, but the way it's designed, it'll also never get as popular as some MMO's in the West such as WoW and GW2.

I think thats more about how those games are designed, making people lazy with content patches where you can easily catch up, in instanced world with less graphics and options. This game has a bright future, it already has alot of unique stuff making it keep players (me for instance Im still playing this one year+ whereas in other mmorpgs i got tired of the same treadmill in a shallow world). This game has many flaws that can make people quit, and while many of us dont get why theres no fix, it still isnt enough to keep us away. And no I dont speak on behalf of the community @Plunge

Edited by Nacario

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Posted (edited)

I think thats more about how those games are designed, making people lazy with content patches where you can easily catch up, in instanced world with less graphics and options. This game has a bright future, it already has alot of unique stuff making it keep players (me for instance Im still playing this one year+ whereas in other mmorpgs i got tired of the same treadmill in a shallow world). This game has many flaws that can make people quit, and while many of us dont get why theres no fix, it still isnt enough to keep us away. And no I dont speak on behalf of the community @Plunge

There ain't no reason to quit if u have good gear already, with the way RNG and market system works u r guaranteed to stay on top(or near top) of the food chain as long as the enchanting RNG and market system stays put.

There's a million reason u should quit if u don't though... If I didn't have 240/280 with 10+bil silver 500sharps/800hards 2000frags in my bank I would've made my decision real quick

Edited by FapperJack

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Posted

There ain't no reason to quit if u have good gear already, with the way RNG and market system works u r guaranteed to stay on top(or near top) of the food chain as long as the enchanting RNG and market system stays put.

There's a million reason u should quit if u don't though... If I didn't have 240/280 with 10+bil silver 500sharps/800hards 2000frags in my bank I would've made my decision real quick

Since game is bein adjusted weekly to cater more and more to casual playerbase i dont agree with this one... If new expansions wont change anything, most of the aspects are quite accessible to everyone... (talking about DUO-TRI gear here which is enough to participate practically in anything available... TET is thing some people will never get, not even talking about PEN, so noobstomping is probably the only thing only for lucky few...)

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Posted

There ain't no reason to quit if u have good gear already, with the way RNG and market system works u r guaranteed to stay on top(or near top) of the food chain as long as the enchanting RNG and market system stays put.

There's a million reason u should quit if u don't though... If I didn't have 240/280 with 10+bil silver 500sharps/800hards 2000frags in my bank I would've made my decision real quick

this is not true. Getting TRI accessory, TET weapons and armor, is something all players will achieve sooner or later. TETs can be random and hard, but at least you dont lose the item. TRI is hard too, but almost the same as DUO, so it's fairly reachable. Lucky or not, all will get there, and when you do you have 530+ ap dp. After that for PEN weapon or TET accessory push, now that is the real pain. Patience and appreciating the journey, harsh or not, is the key. Besides these are high end stats, people do very well with even lower stats. So not sure what you're trying to get at.

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Posted (edited)

this is not true. Getting TRI accessory, TET weapons and armor, is something all players will achieve sooner or later. TETs can be random and hard, but at least you dont lose the item. TRI is hard too, but almost the same as DUO, so it's fairly reachable. Lucky or not, all will get there, and when you do you have 530+ ap dp. After that for PEN weapon or TET accessory push, now that is the real pain. Patience and appreciating the journey, harsh or not, is the key. Besides these are high end stats, people do very well with even lower stats. So not sure what you're trying to get at.

Try making Ogre ring TRI, tell me it's reachable just give it a try I'm not lying. It's probably somewhat reachable if the price for everything stayed on the same level as half year ago but I doubt with how everything is ---ing expensive now u can even dream of making a TRI Ogre. And not only do u need a TRI Ogre u'll need TRI Crescent x 2, TRI basi belt, TRI Red Coral earring x 2 as well, now I wouldn't call it a tough task, I'd rather call it mission impossible.

Well if u have GODLY RNG luck everything is achievable but for the one person that manages to get his AP above 240 there's like 50 ppl who would fail.

By the way I made all my TRI accessories WAY back when(like 7+ months ago) everything was cheap and available. Back then I didn't have to do this bullshit called preorder cuz everything was still cheaper than the upper limit. I just cannot imagine doing that with how expensive everything is now today.

Edited by FapperJack

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Posted

If they continue the Loop "Launch new class" - ---- "Make it OP"-----"Ppl reroll or invest money on it"-------"After a while launch a new class again"------"Nerf all the others".....  No it wont last long

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