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Horse Breeding / Findings MegaThread

27,967 posts in this topic

Posted

My latest breeds were amazing. I didn't get the T7b I really wanted but I'm not complaining with these results.

6SlK8lY.jpg

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Posted

Quinntessa, do you usually breed at 22?  I've been breeding at 28/30 and I wonder if the way things are now I should drop it down to 22 on the T6.

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Posted (edited)

Quinntessa, do you usually breed at 22?  I've been breeding at 28/30 and I wonder if the way things are now I should drop it down to 22 on the T6.

Yes I have always breed at the 700 threshold going by the calculater. So for t6 I aim for 22 ( I somtimes go ove this just because im afk leveling but not usually any more than one level) and I did a lot of t5 plus t6 breeds, one at level 26 and one at 25. I honestly find I have way more luck at the lower threshold and I get hardly any t5. It saves a lot of time too. 

 

I just want to add that I did 13 breeds and 6 exchanges since the last update. These have been my first t7 since then. I was also worried they changed something with the thresholds but after this luck ive just had I'm pretty sure it's just been rng at work.

Edited by Quinntessa

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Posted (edited)

Hello, mass breeding info dump :3 Had a result pretty much right in line with what I should get according to the calc :) Still no purebreds! but I'm due one soon, and I got lots of girls!! Wuhoo!

t7idXhS0q1.png25m + t6tz6bU2mV.png23f = t6g9q55bmJ.pngm, t6cPQdPVSt.pngf

t7idXhS0q1.png25m + t5iPLTahbx.png23f = t5jNGGDhAx.pngf, t6bOPxokAE.pngf

t7gjB2lpjw.png19f + t6q5GU0dvj.png18m = t7hPcMCPfY.pngm, t7d106kp4q.pngf

(t6q5GU0dvj.png20m + t6tz6bU2mV.png24f) = t6bOPxokAE.pngm

() = exchange

until next time! ^^ grats on purebreds and successful breeds everyone!

I made a quick reference for optimal (speed) breeding/leveling that I thought you guys might like too. :)

=== QUICK LV. REF ===

tiers bred together = respective optimal levels needed (experience needed in millions)

7+7 = 14+15 (3.8)
7+6 = 18+19 (6.1)
7+5 = 20+24 (8.4)
6+6 = 22+22 (8.5)
6+5 = 25+26 (11.2)

====================

tier = maximum level for optimal breeding speed

7 = 20
6 = 25
5 = 26

Why is a score of barely above 700 optimal?

well lets see...

t7's @ level 14 and 15 (700.5 score) = 3.8m exp which gives a 27.7% chance of a t7.

t7's @ level 20 and 20 (750 score) = 7.9m exp which gives a 33.5% chance of a t7.

That's a 108% increase in effort for a 5.8% chance gain. In short, you could have bred twice in that amount of time. Which ultimately means you would have had a 55.4% chance of getting a t7 within the same amount of time if you had stuck with the 700 bracket. You are working literally twice as hard, for half as much. I hope this helps some people understand :3

Edited by Auruen
Added more info on optimal breeding.
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Posted

Well whatever has changed with the breeding it seriously seems to of screwed up anything over 700 mark, because all myself and another breeder seem to get back are T5's which is really really disheartening.

I concur !!!!

i wonder if they changed the way its calculated 

The chance of getting higher tier horses while breeding has been increased.---Directly from the July 20 patch notes. Wonder if the calculator will be...Well recalculated? If not, until then, assume a better chance on all the %'s and the possibility of a higher tier jump if you are thresholding far enough to eliminate lower tier pairs?

Patch notes say its increased but i have bad luck going for T7. I reading this thread and wondering if they Lowered the tier multiplier and raised the level multiplier ... .That would explain why peaple leveling low tier horse are getting T7 and people breeding T6 over and over arnt getting T7's

I've been really wondering if there is something screwed up over a certain threshold, myself.  I've managed to get a number of T7s but none of them from T6 pairs.

Me too, i have breed 15 sets of decently leveled 6's and got one slow T7 ... breed the T7 and a T6 3X and got 3X T5's in a row. I have stopped breediing till i see data high tier horse breeding has been fixed. I am 99% sure its bugged.

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Posted

I'm pretty sure horse breeding is nothing but RNG full on. Even color theory doesn't work more than half of the time.  As I said a few pages back, I can't get a T7 no matter what I've done. I'm Professional 5, bred everything I could breed meeting the calculator standards for optimization every time. I've only ever had 2 horses with one death a piece on them, everything else 0 deaths. I've bred and exchanged a total of 5 times since the increase in higher tier chances and still have not gotten my first T7.  One would be hard pressed to convince me that there is any pattern or logic behind any of it. 

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Posted

I'm pretty sure horse breeding is nothing but RNG full on. Even color theory doesn't work more than half of the time.  As I said a few pages back, I can't get a T7 no matter what I've done. I'm Professional 5, bred everything I could breed meeting the calculator standards for optimization every time. I've only ever had 2 horses with one death a piece on them, everything else 0 deaths. I've bred and exchanged a total of 5 times since the increase in higher tier chances and still have not gotten my first T7.  One would be hard pressed to convince me that there is any pattern or logic behind any of it. 

Have to agree, does seem very rng. I usually breed horses to at least lvl 26 and end up with T6 and T5. Then I bred a T5 and T6 at lvl 20 and got a T7 from them.

 Colour theory, doesn't work most of the time. I had bred 2 horses the combined parents had 8 in red, 4 in black and both parents have 0 white and ended up with a  foal that was 3 in red , 2 in black and 2 in white. Where the hell did the white come from? The colour calculator said Red x8 67%, 4xblack 33%, 0White 0% But I got a horse with 2 white in it.

And had a white dominant horse of +5 from parents that were red dominant. It also said over 60% red and 12% white but end up with a horse with 5 white. I just breed whatever now as none of the calculations seem to matter.

I've bred plenty of horses with combined 7 or higher in a colour combination and have never had a purebred.

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Posted

Have to agree, does seem very rng. I usually breed horses to at least lvl 26 and end up with T6 and T5. Then I bred a T5 and T6 at lvl 20 and got a T7 from them.

 Colour theory, doesn't work most of the time. I had bred 2 horses the combined parents had 8 in red, 4 in black and both parents have 0 white and ended up with a  foal that was 3 in red , 2 in black and 2 in white. Where the hell did the white come from? The colour calculator said Red x8 67%, 4xblack 33%, 0White 0% But I got a horse with 2 white in it.

And had a white dominant horse of +5 from parents that were red dominant. It also said over 60% red and 12% white but end up with a horse with 5 white. I just breed whatever now as none of the calculations seem to matter.

I've bred plenty of horses with combined 7 or higher in a colour combination and have never had a purebred.

As I understand it, color theory generally only tells you what you cannot get and leaves open all the possibilities within the colors. In your case, if it rolled on Black or Red, you could get any horse with that black or red value. So it rolled a 3 lets say in red, you get a horse with that 3 and anything else in the other colors, it only seems to roll on a single color and as long as one is within the most accepted theory of color theory, all the rest can be anything. Out of hundreds and hundreds of breeds, I think 2, later proved to be wrong parents input, have all been in color theory.

It really is only very relevant in purebreds, as you cannot, as been proven by a multitude of breeds, get a purebred with parents color value less than the purebred color threshold. Want a T7 white, parents absolutely must have combined white 7 or more or there is no chance. If you look at the amount of horse with any value in white at tier 7, you can see you need to hit the % for a t7 then hit the roll for that pure, so in some ways it is triple rng to get a pure. Once for tier, once for hitting the one color column you need, then once to roll 7 or higher in the color column you need. As I understand the current most popular theory.

As to t6 and t6 even at max threshold, the chances for T7 are not that greatly different than T5-T6 and T5-T5 I think maybe a 10% spread between them? So rng is rng, simply more people breeding lower pairs faster results in the impression low pairs have a higher chance. While leveling 6-6 pairs takes longer and has in general less overall gross breeding numbers. Finally few come here to post failures of T5 pairs, t6-t5 pairs or any pairing, so seeing these positive results is a skewed false positive with information bias, people post happy stuff, never see the failures.

I have been breeding nearly continuously from early start and just today got my third T7, with a 6-6 max threshold pair. Then two t5's and one pure black t6. I also managed the lottery for my second T7, a t5-t5 pair and got the pure T7 black female, by the numbers the lowest chance I had.

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Posted (edited)

Something new people may not know about how horse colour works (to the best of my knowledge).

Lets use two horses in an example.

The T6LdbdOOSp.png, and the T6N7xQiHla.png.

Their colour values are~ T6L(Red: 0, White: 3, Black:3), T6N(Red: 3 White: 4 Black: 0)

I'll write them like this~ t6l 0/3/3, t6n 3/4/0.

When picking a colour for a new foal, this happens~

Step 1. The game adds together the colour values of the parents. In this case we would get 3/7/3.

Step 2. The game randomly picks either red, white or black to check against possible colours for the foal. If any colour value is 0 after adding parents together, that colour will NOT be picked. It is skipped. This enables you to force the colour picker away from any colour you have a 0 in.

examples:

1. Lets say the game chose "Red". Then, the offspring could be any horse with a value of 3 in red or less. It will ignore the white and black values.

2. Lets say the game chose "White". Then, the offspring could be any horse with a value of 7 in white or less. It will ignore the red and black values.

In conclusion~

If you want the best possible chance at a purebred T7, you need to breed together horses with zeroes in the colour values you don't want.

For example, 2x T5K wJPENIj.png 0/5/0 will have a total colour value of 0/10/0. This will force the game to choose white, and guarantee the T7B 0ewCSbT.png is in the possibilities if you are lucky enough to roll T7 (with t5's u'll need lv 29 each to hit 700 bracket and have a chance at t7's). It will also cut out the two other purebreds from the possibilities.

The advantage you get by forcing the colour picker into choosing the colour you want isn't really worth actively trying to get "purebreds" in lower tiers, however it DOES mean that if you happen to get one, you may want to think twice about hanging onto it to mix with another horse to eliminate at least one possible colour pick when going for a purebred.

Basically, getting zero values in both parents for colours you don't want, increases your odds for getting the purebred you want, which is kindof obvious, but now you know why haha.

Bye bye for now :3

Edited by Auruen
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Posted (edited)

For the last few posters ... in 10,241 breedings the color theory worked 10,237 times

One of the four "misses" came back and admitted he may have made a mistake on which two he exchanged he couldn't remember

One came back and reported she had messed up the parents

And the two others never did come back to report

Edited by coach
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Posted

I went on a bit of a hunt and finally found this picture someone made a while ago, it might help some of you guys understand the color theory a bit better because it seems like some of you don't quite get it.

BJySvK6.jpg

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Posted (edited)

 

That's a 108% increase in effort for a 5.8% chance gain. In short, you could have bred twice in that amount of time. Which ultimately means you would have had a 55.4% chance of getting a t7 within the same amount of time if you had stuck with the 700 bracket. You are working literally twice as hard, for half as much. I hope this helps some people understand :3

2x 27,7% isn't 55,4%. Its still 27,7% (correctly, an extreme small amount increased). 

You had just another try (and chance to fail about 72,3% each try) in same time

Edited by Nyrante

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Posted

"Good" to know that not only I am frustrated with T7 attempts....

 

Anyone on Croxus want to sell T7B? ^^

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Posted (edited)

2x 27,7% isn't 55,4%. Its still 27,7% (correctly, an extreme small amount increased). 

You had just another try (and chance to fail about 72,3% each try) in same time

What you're saying, and what i'm saying, is the same thing. We're just looking at it differently. Say it takes 1 hour to get 27.7%, and 2 hours to get 33.5%. In 2 hours, if you stick with the breed cycle of 700 bracket, you can breed twice.

1h @ 27.7% + 1h @ 27.7% = 2h @ 55.4% <- double, twice.

2h @ 55.4% vs 2h @ 33.5% This is my comparison.

I don't mean 55.4% each breed, i mean a 55.4% chance of succeeding in that same time period. Still 27.7% chance to succeed each, or 72.3% chance to fail each, as you put it.

I went on a bit of a hunt and finally found this picture someone made a while ago, it might help some of you guys understand the color theory a bit better because it seems like some of you don't quite get it.

BJySvK6.jpg

haha, 3rd time's a charm :P This one doesn't explain how zeros work though.

Edited by Auruen

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Posted (edited)

i wonder if they changed the way its calculated 

Patch notes say its increased but i have bad luck going for T7. I reading this thread and wondering if they Lowered the tier multiplier and raised the level multiplier ... .That would explain why peaple leveling low tier horse are getting T7 and people breeding T6 over and over arnt getting T7's

Me too, i have breed 15 sets of decently leveled 6's and got one slow T7 ... breed the T7 and a T6 3X and got 3X T5's in a row. I have stopped breediing till i see data high tier horse breeding has been fixed. I am 99% sure its bugged.


Hello,
 
It seems reasonable that perhaps they have changed the region rate multiplier, it would be a simple way of controlling the horse breeding tier & % rather than messing about with the code/calcs themselves.
 
So if they just changed the region rate to 10, instead of 9 which I believe it is currently, this would, as you say, allow you to breed for higher tiers/gender at lower combined levels.
 
There are two posts on page 821 of this thread, which have given results post the patch where they 'updated the percentages' which don't fit with the current calcs:-
 
1) Rinel bred a T3 lvl23 x T6 lvl30 and got a T6 Female followed by a T7 Male.    This pair would reach a breed grade of 646 according to the current calcs with no chance a breeding a T7 male - but if the region rate was 10, you would be hitting breed grade 672.5, well within the grade required for T7 male.
2) Mashauer bred a T4 lvl30 x T4lvl25 and got a T7 Male.    This pair would reach a breed grade of 622.5 according to the current calcs, again no chance at a T7 male - but if the region rate was 10, you would be hitting the minimum breed grade 650, the grade required for T7 male.
Congrats to you both by the way :)
 
Put together a brief compare of combined levels and max teir/gender for a few combos to try to show the effect of a change from region rate 9 to 10:
<removed link due to error in spreadie re breed grade for T8>.
 
I have a few T6's/T5's with colour values I am not that interested in, so I will experiment for THE SCIENCE :) over the next few weeks.  I will get them to combined level 46 to see if I can get a t7 female.
 
Anyways all just theory until we see more results.
 
Also, just as a side note I agree there is something very weird with breeding at high thresholds, especially when that threshold hits a tier which isn't yet available in game (T8 and T9), and that it seems to be 'downgrading' more often than not.
 
Kindest Regards and have a lovely day all.
 

 

Edited by Skylar
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Posted

"Good" to know that not only I am frustrated with T7 attempts....

 

Anyone on Croxus want to sell T7B? ^^

Good Joke ;) 

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Posted (edited)

 

haha, 3rd time's a charm :P This one doesn't explain how zeros work though.

Actually it does, right at the top. :S

0 doesn't mean the foal will have 0 in that color, it just means that the game wont roll in that color, it will pick one of the other colors.

Edited by Quinntessa

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Posted (edited)

For the last few posters ... in 10,241 breedings the color theory worked 10,237 times

 

I'm sorry, I'm having a difficult time believing this. Where do these numbers come from? How do you have this precise count? Are these posts? Are these one person's calculated successes? Was there a group of people conducting controlled experimenting? What about those that have never posted any results? The facts are in the name, Color Theory. It is only just a theory. The only true way of ever seeing any patterns from this is if we bred the same pair of horses 100s of times to find the average result. Not only are magical numbers appearing here but from the rest of the post it seems you're trying to tell us it worked 100% of the time which is impossible considering that it does have, as we all know, at least a small amount of RNG regardless.

Information is great, but lets not go passing around the wrong information. The fact is we simply don't know how Horse Breeding really works and the whys and why nots and this 823 page forum prooves that.

 

 

Edited by Myalla

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Posted (edited)

I'm sorry, I'm having a difficult time believing this. Where do these numbers come from? How do you have this precise count? Are these posts? Are these one person's calculated successes? Was there a group of people conducting controlled experimenting? What about those that have never posted any results? The facts are in the name, Color Theory. It is only just a theory. The only true way of ever seeing any patterns from this is if we bred the same pair of horses 100s of times to find the average result. Not only are magical numbers appearing here but from the rest of the post it seems you're trying to tell us it worked 100% of the time which is impossible considering that it does have, as we all know, at least a small amount of RNG regardless.

Information is great, but lets not go passing around the wrong information. The fact is we simply don't know how Horse Breeding really works and the whys and why nots and this 823 page forum prooves that.

 

 

I think if by page 823 the color theory hasn't been disproved it won't be.... 

Honestly its really only useful if you want a t7  pure breed anyway (and I assume in the future the t8's)

Edited by Quinntessa

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Posted

I'm sorry, I'm having a difficult time believing this. Where do these numbers come from? How do you have this precise count? Are these posts? Are these one person's calculated successes? Was there a group of people conducting controlled experimenting? What about those that have never posted any results? The facts are in the name, Color Theory. It is only just a theory. The only true way of ever seeing any patterns from this is if we bred the same pair of horses 100s of times to find the average result. Not only are magical numbers appearing here but from the rest of the post it seems you're trying to tell us it worked 100% of the time which is impossible considering that it does have, as we all know, at least a small amount of RNG regardless.

Information is great, but lets not go passing around the wrong information. The fact is we simply don't know how Horse Breeding really works and the whys and why nots and this 823 page forum prooves that.

 

 

The information of the horses "colours" was datamined and I've yet to have a horse outcome that wasn't predicted by the Colour Theory. The person quoting the numbers above is using this thread as a collective of information. There is a spreadsheet that has every single breed detail for the first 700+ pages of this thread. I joined this thread well into the 300th page but I read my whole way through and I believe in the colour theory completely.

 

Yes there is RNG in everything BDO related but the colour theory works. You can never say: I'm going to get this horse today. However, you can say: I could get this horse today.

It's been worked into the horse calc here: http://www.blackd.de/horse/

have a play with it and maybe you'll understand it a bit better.

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Posted

or u can say "i get never this horse" xD thats my feeling.. 

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Posted

or u can say "i get never this horse" xD thats my feeling.. 

That's my experience with the T7A ;)

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Posted (edited)

That's my experience with the T7A ;)

T7B :/ and i can say ... never again t6+t6 ... i got never a t7 with two t6 ... t5+t5 t5+t6 works but never t6+t6 thats weird and its sooo hard to get white horses, maybe i try with red for the pure red ? :/ not my fav t7 but i want all like pokemon "catch them all" :D 

btw my T7G is lvl 27 and need only 3 Skills ~.~ Sprint,Charge and Twoseater ... so pls rng gimme sprint xD plssss

Edited by Rou

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Posted

T7B :/ and i can say ... never again t6+t6 ... i got never a t7 with two t6 ... t5+t5 t5+t6 works but never t6+t6 thats weird and its sooo hard to get white horses, maybe i try with red for the pure red ? :/ not my fav t7 but i want all like pokemon "catch them all" :D 

I've gotten one from two T6's, one from two T5's and four from a T5/6 mix. Also 4 of them were from exchanges. (relating to T7's in general)

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Posted

I've gotten one from two T6's, one from two T5's and four from a T5/6 mix. Also 4 of them were from exchanges. (relating to T7's in general)

i got my first T7(J) from T6+T6 on exchange. Then got T7B from normal breed T5+T5, it does seem to be more T7s come from exchanges but still RNG xD  

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