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blackstones Enhancement Calculator Tool - UPDATED 5/4/2016


41 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Hello all!

For the past few weeks I've been working on a tool in my spare time to help calculate my chances on enhancing gear as well as the costs of doing so (mostly inspired by getting a Liverto weapon and going broke on Memory Fragments).  I never really intended to put this out to anyone but me and my friends so I only made it an executable instead of a nice website app....  But I decided that I'd go ahead and upload it just in case anyone wants to use it as I haven't found too many other tools that offer the same information.  Download link is at the bottom of the post.

 

Here's what it does:

Image_1.thumb.jpg.6ba025654cd68bb541cc38

Item Type:  Select from "Weapon", "Armor", or "Accessory" based on what you are trying to enhance.

Show Silver Calculations:  Shows more detailed view that allows you to calculate silver costs (more on this below).

Current Enhancement Level:  The level your item is currently at (0 being not enhanced at all).

Current Failstack Level:  How many failstacks you currently have.  Hint: Hitting the down arrow when the value is 0 will automatically set this to the Max Failstack.

Base Rate:  The base chance for your item to enhance to the next level with 0 failstacks.

Rate per Failstack:  Each fail stack will add this much to the total percent chance.

Max Rate:  The maximum percent chance to enhance this item.

Max Failstack: The number of failstacks it takes to reach the Max Rate (ex: The max number of failstacks you can use to improve your enhancement chances).

Total chance to enhance:  Your estimated percent chance of upgrading given your current item, level, and number of failstacks.

 

Simulate:  This button runs a quick simulation with the current statistics so you can "test your luck" and see if it fails or succeeds.

Simulate Until Success:  This button will continue trying to enhance until you succeed (useful for seeing how many tries it may take).

Reset Simulation:  This button resets the current simulation.

Number of Blackstones Used: How many blackstones your current simulation took.

Durability Lost:  How much durability you would have lost in your current simulation.

Average Blackstones Needed:  How many blackstones your simulations have required, on average. Note:  All these stats are reset if you change the item type or level.

Maximum Blackstones Needed:  The maximum number of blackstones any of your simulations have needed.

Total Simulations Ran:  How many simulations you've run.

 

Estimated Blackstone Cost to upgrade:  Using a basic algorithm, this is the average number of blackstones you can expect to use with your current statistics.  If you run the simulations above often enough you will likely see it average around this number.

Estimated Durability Cost to upgrade:  Using the same algorithm as above, it calculates the average durability you may lose if trying to upgrade with the current statistics.

Blackstones lost if force enhanced:  How many blackstones you need to force enhance the current item.

Durability loss if force enhanced: How much durability force enhancing will cost.

 

Silver Cost Calculations

This option includes several new fields, as shown here:

 

Image_2.thumb.jpg.861b05911dc34882325125

Item Price:  How much the item you are enhancing costs.

Blackstone Price:  Current market price of blackstones (weapon for weapons or armor for armors).

Memory Fragment Price:  Current market price of memory fragments (if you have these already then just change the price to 0).

Calculate for additional failstacks:  At the bottom of the calculations section you can calculate how much getting more failstacks would save you, on average.  This control allows you to change how many failstacks you want to be used in the savings calculation.

I have x Blackstones already:  Allows you to put in how many blackstones your currently have.  Thus it will only calculate the cost of blackstones if you would need more than you currently have.

Using RNG Method:  Gives you a summary of how much you can expect to spend if you have average luck in RNG.  This includes extra blackstones and repairing max durability with either duplicate items or memory fragments (it will show whichever is cheaper).  The second line of this section uses the "Calculate for additional failstacks" input to see how much additional failstacks would save you, on average.

Using Forced Method: Gives you a summary of how much you can expect to spend if you have force enhance.  This includes extra blackstones and repairing max durability with either duplicate items or memory fragments (it will show whichever is cheaper).

 

DISCLAIMER:  This tool was created with data found online and I cannot verify that the numbers are all 100% accurate as Pearl Abyss has not released any official data on this issue (to my knowledge).  This tool simulates luck but it is entirely possible to have really bad luck so don't take the numbers here as the absolute truth.  You may end up taking 80 tries to upgrade from a +7 to +8 weapon and that's just bad luck.

This tool is an executable.  As such I'd recommend scanning it as with any exe you download online.  This doesn't have any virus but it's a good practice and one I'd recommend.

I do not own the artwork displayed in this tool nor do I know who made it.  So if you are the artist and want it removed then let me know and I'll gladly change it.  Or if you want to create an icon for it yourself that I can use, feel free.  My art skill is limited to stick figures (bad stick figures).

If you find any issues or think of anything you may like added, feel free to let me know.  I may or may not continue working on this, depending on how many people find this useful.

 

Download Link:  Executable or  Installer

Current Version: 1.2.1

Last Updated: May 4, 2016

Version Notes:

Version 1.2.1

  • Added how many blackstones you would save in the additional failstack savings calculation.  This will tell you how many of your own blackstones (those you entered in the "I have x blackstones") you will save since these are not calculated as a silver cost.

 

Version 1.2.0

  • Added calculations for how much silver, on average, you would save by adding additional failstacks.

 

Version 1.1.0

  • No more installation required, now it is just a basic executable that can be ran whenever.  Included Installer version for those who need it.
  • Silver cost fields now automatically update values as you type instead of having to change focus to another UI control.

 

Version 1.0.0

  • Initial Release

 

Currently Known Issues:

  • None

 

Future Plans:

  • Look into optimizer for best method of getting failstacks.

 

Virus scans:

Scan on the link: Executable - https://www.virustotal.com/en/url/ce73f51cab951164d047093867e5f8a0afc2347f3752dc15617f15366791a2ad/analysis/1462282761/ 

Installer -https://www.virustotal.com/en/url/cf3ed175d15c4d5f76941538639d7096deb2b3160bac9dda621acf8c7e957b4e/analysis/ 

Scan on the exe: https://www.virustotal.com/en/file/ef539dd194686c6095536d6dad5326b6967baca5e92cbe20576867ca9d44bff8/analysis/1462282752/ 

(For some reason this one returns a single false positive that is apparently infamous for flagging almost every program.  if anyone has any ideas on what may cause it to do this let me know.)

 

NOTE:  Windows 10 and other anti-virus software and/or Operating Systems may warn you that it is from an unknown publisher.  This is technically true as I built it as an individual rather than using a certificate from a business.  I'm not aware of any way to correct this but let me know if you have any ideas.

Edited by Professional N00b
Updated to version 1.2.1
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Posted

You don't fck with RNGesus

RNGesus fcks with you

4 people like this

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Posted

You don't fck with RNGesus

Hidden Content

I should add a "Praise RNGesus" button.

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Posted

good work, look forward to utilizing.

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Posted

this gets my 

thanks for this will definitely help the uneducated like myself

 

cont1.jpeg

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Posted

Ya are missing rods and floats tho....

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Posted

Ya are missing rods and floats tho....

That's a great idea.  So far I haven't found any data regarding those or profession clothes so can't do much.  But if anyone finds any data I can add them to the application :D

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Posted

o12dK5S.gif

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Posted

-snip-

That's exactly why I recommend scanning everything like this ;)  To be fair I almost didn't upload it because I know many will be wary (rightfully so) of downloading an exe off of a forum.  But it's there for those who do want to try it. 

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Posted

Thanks for the effort, and helping out the community. :)

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Posted

I can vouch its working without any malware/adware/virus 

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Posted

Thanks for the effort, and helping out the community. :)

No problem!  I mostly made it for fun just for me and my friends but if others can benefit from it then I'm happy to share.  

I can vouch its working without any malware/adware/virus 

Thanks for vouching ^_^

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Posted

Oh nice! I was going to do analysis on this subject, but it's been done for all of us :D

Two suggestions:

  1. Do you think you can make it just an executable with no installation?
  2. The last part to make this tool perfect would be a function to analyse failstacks. It's perfectly possible that the optimal enchantment strategy in a certain context is RNG method with failstack built to X. If you add a calculator that calculates the probability of a fail chain, the cost of fail stack at X can be approximated when using fodder gear to stack fail stacks. Jewelry is also quite straightforward, but obviously not recommended at high stacks.

Great job on the tool!

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Posted

Oh nice! I was going to do analysis on this subject, but it's been done for all of us :D

Two suggestions:

  1. Do you think you can make it just an executable with no installation?
  2. The last part to make this tool perfect would be a function to analyse failstacks. It's perfectly possible that the optimal enchantment strategy in a certain context is RNG method with failstack built to X. If you add a calculator that calculates the probability of a fail chain, the cost of fail stack at X can be approximated when using fodder gear to stack fail stacks. Jewelry is also quite straightforward, but obviously not recommended at high stacks.

Great job on the tool!

Thanks!

I should be able to make it a basic exe (should have done that from the start but too used to doing installers for work related stuff) and I'll definitely think on how to implement that second one.  I had considered something like that before but couldn't quite figure out how I wanted to do it.

Probably won't be able to update it until tomorrow but will try to get the exe only version out then :P

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Posted

post a virus scan result on virusjotti or virustotal

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Posted

post a virus scan result on virusjotti or virustotal

Done, added to the main page.  

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Posted (edited)

Thanks!

I should be able to make it a basic exe (should have done that from the start but too used to doing installers for work related stuff) and I'll definitely think on how to implement that second one.  I had considered something like that before but couldn't quite figure out how I wanted to do it.

Probably won't be able to update it until tomorrow but will try to get the exe only version out then :P

Failstack cost can be quite easily compared. For example:

Say I start with 0 stacks, is it more cost effective to use fodder set to stack to 1 then enchant or go straight?

You simulate cost of 0 stack - say 5 million total.

You simulate cost of 1 stack - say 4 million total.

You simulate the cost of getting 1 stack - which can be done by averaging number of stones your simulation gave in order to fail 1x in a row, then multiplying by cost of armor blackstone. 

You add cost of starting at 1 stack + cost of getting 1 stack and compare to the cheaper of force vs RNG at 0 stacks.

You then repeat this process for 2 stacks and abort if 2 stacks is more expensive than 1 stack, but continue onto 3 stacks if 2 stacks is cheaper than 1 stacks. The process will continue until you hit the optimal number of fail stacks you want to build or it hits maximum fail stack given by the table.

 

This method will work because each additional fail stack scales exponentially more expensive than the last fail stack. 80 fail stacks will on average cost far more than 80x of 1 fail stack. However RNG enchantment is largely linear, and in fact get easier. So incremental increase will always hit a convergence point... assuming +0 isn't the optimal enchantment strategy.

 

This will have profound implications, because say if I started with 26 fail stacks but the calculator says 11 is the optimal, then I might want to do this enchantment on an alt.

Also

For example the screenshot on your OP showed RNG being far cheaper than force, but that's because you already have 10 stacks. I think the value of 10 stacks should be included into that equation because obviously if you force you won't consume the 10 stacks, and of course 10 stacks have indirect monetary value.

Edited by Featherine
typo sleepy

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Posted (edited)

Updated to version 1.1.0!  This one is finally just a normal executable instead of having to have an installer :D  For those who have it installed, just go to your install directory (ex: C:\Program Files (x86)\Black Desert Tools\BDO Upgrade Calculator ) and run unins000.exe.  This will remove the old install from your computer.  For everyone else you can now just download the executable and run it by itself however you like.

Also fixed the issue with the values on the silver costs part not updating until you selected another control.  Should now update as you type.

 

Failstack cost can be quite easily compared. For example:

Say I start with 0 stacks, is it more cost effective to use fodder set to stack to 1 then enchant or go straight?

You simulate cost of 0 stack - say 5 million total.

You simulate cost of 1 stack - say 4 million total.

You simulate the cost of getting 1 stack - which can be done by averaging number of stones your simulation gave in order to fail 1x in a row, then multiplying by cost of armor blackstone. 

You add cost of starting at 1 stack + cost of getting 1 stack and compare to the cheaper of force vs RNG at 0 stacks.

You then repeat this process for 2 stacks and abort if 2 stacks is more expensive than 1 stack, but continue onto 3 stacks if 2 stacks is cheaper than 1 stacks. The process will continue until you hit the optimal number of fail stacks you want to build or it hits maximum fail stack given by the table.

 

This method will work because each additional fail stack scales exponentially more expensive than the last fail stack. 80 fail stacks will on average cost far more than 80x of 1 fail stack. However RNG enchantment is largely linear, and in fact get easier. So incremental increase will always hit a convergence point... assuming +0 isn't the optimal enchantment strategy.

 

This will have profound implications, because say if I started with 26 fail stacks but the calculator says 11 is the optimal, then I might want to do this enchantment on an alt.

Also

For example the screenshot on your OP showed RNG being far cheaper than force, but that's because you already have 10 stacks. I think the value of 10 stacks should be included into that equation because obviously if you force you won't consume the 10 stacks, and of course 10 stacks have indirect monetary value.

That's a good idea, I'll see if I can get time to fiddle with that!  Thanks for the suggestions :D

Edit:  Also, as far as the 10 failstacks in the above screenshot that was mostly to demo that it does indeed calculate based on where your current failstacks are :P  So for example if I have an alt that got up to 10 failstacks on them and am curious what it would take for them to start trying to enhance my gear, you would just select the current failstack and set it to 10 like in the screenshot.  If you didn't want this counted then reset the failstack count so that it is 0 and you'll be back at the base enhancement levels.  Hope that helps!

Edited by Professional N00b

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Posted

Very nice!

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Posted (edited)

Just added a link to the installer as well in case some people have issues with Windows 10 (it likes to block anything that isn't from a verified company it seems).

Both contain the changes to version 1.1.0, so just use whichever one you prefer.

 

Edit:  Nevermind, installer has the same issue.  You'll just have to work around Windows 10 for now.  Sorry :(

Edited by Professional N00b

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Posted (edited)

Edit:  Also, as far as the 10 failstacks in the above screenshot that was mostly to demo that it does indeed calculate based on where your current failstacks are :P  So for example if I have an alt that got up to 10 failstacks on them and am curious what it would take for them to start trying to enhance my gear, you would just select the current failstack and set it to 10 like in the screenshot.  If you didn't want this counted then reset the failstack count so that it is 0 and you'll be back at the base enhancement levels.  Hope that helps!

That's not the issue. The issue is because of indirect monetary value of fail stacks. A fail stack of 10 is not worth $0, it is in fact worth approximately 2m~ gold if I deliberately try to get it with a +14 fodder armor.

This means if the calculator tells me +10 failstack RNG enchant will cost on average 4m and force will cost on average 5m I might be mislead into using RNG. But because 10 fail stacks is worth 2m, the economical choice is actually to force this enchantment and save the 2m worth of fail stacks on something else that requires fail stacks, such as building more fail stacks for expensive jewelry or a Kzaka weapon or something.

An even more extreme example: if I said I had 65 fail stacks the calculator will probably tell me +14->+15 my Yuria would cost 2m using RNG and 10m using force so I should RNG. But that's absolutely stupid, because 65 fail stacks is worth an astronomical sum and should be saved for that TRI Ogre Ring.

 

In order for the calculator to truly calculate the most cost effective way of enchanting, it must use the method I proposed above. Unless it directly calculates the value of fail stacks, it cannot be considered the min-max long term enchantment strategy.

Edited by Featherine

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Posted

or you could just use the chart...

 

FAILSTACKDATA.jpg

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Posted (edited)

That's not the issue. The issue is because of indirect monetary value of fail stacks. A fail stack of 10 is not worth $0, it is in fact worth approximately 2m~ gold if I deliberately try to get it with a +14 fodder armor.

This means if the calculator tells me +10 failstack RNG enchant will cost on average 4m and force will cost on average 5m I might be mislead into using RNG. But because 10 fail stacks is worth 2m, the economical choice is actually to force this enchantment and save the 2m worth of fail stacks on something else that requires fail stacks, such as building more fail stacks for expensive jewelry or a Kzaka weapon or something.

An even more extreme example: if I said I had 65 fail stacks the calculator will probably tell me +14->+15 my Yuria would cost 2m using RNG and 10m using force so I should RNG. But that's absolutely stupid, because 65 fail stacks is worth an astronomical sum and should be saved for that TRI Ogre Ring.

 

In order for the calculator to truly calculate the most cost effective way of enchanting, it must use the method I proposed above.

Ah, I see what you're saying now.  I'm just calculating based on what you currently have without taking into consideration how you get the failstacks in the first place whereas it would be useful to see how much a failstack may cost so you can compare if getting it is worthwhile.  Sorry for the misunderstanding, I got you now :P  I'll see about working on that if I can.

or you could just use the chart...

True, and that is where I got most of my data.  This calculator just does all the number crunching for you (in case you're as lazy as I am :P).  Plus I'm throwing in a few new features here and there.

Edited by Professional N00b
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Posted

Ah, I see what you're saying now.  I'm just calculating based on what you currently have without taking into consideration how you get the failstacks in the first place whereas it would be useful to see how much a failstack may cost so you can compare if getting it is worthwhile.  Sorry for the misunderstanding, I got you now :P  I'll see about working on that if I can.

Yep, if you can get that fixed, your calculator would be able to calculate the min-max long term enchantment strategy. As of right now, it's useful for a single item ignoring all other factors, but that's shortsighted because valuable stacks can be wasted through misleading metrics.

@Professional N00b

There is also one more thing I forgot to mention which will also be required to perfect the calculator. If the RNG strategy comes out ahead, there needs to be a formula to calculate when the value of current fail stack is higher than the enchantment benefit granted by the fail stacks, and so you should move onto an alt and continue to enchant.

 

For example, if RNG comes out ahead for a Yuria +14, and I spent 30 attempts all fail, the value of 30 fail stacks probably outweigh the additional cost required to start from 0 stacks on an alt. In all cases, there is a point where you want to move to an alt because the current fail stacks you built are way too precious.

or you could just use the chart...

So using the charts can you tell me:

Given Liverto weapon is 9m, Memory frags are 150k, Weap stones are 300k and my Liverto is at +14.

I have 3 characters, with +0, +14, +16 fail stacks.

Using your magical charts and your genius intellect, tell me whether I should force enchant my Liverto or RNG? And if RNG, on which character? 

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Posted

Yep, if you can get that fixed, your calculator would be able to calculate the min-max long term enchantment strategy. As of right now, it's useful for a single item ignoring all other factors, but that's shortsighted because valuable stacks can be wasted through misleading metrics.

@Professional N00b

There is also one more thing I forgot to mention which will also be required to perfect the calculator. If the RNG strategy comes out ahead, there needs to be a formula to calculate when the value of current fail stack is higher than the enchantment benefit granted by the fail stacks, and so you should move onto an alt and continue to enchant.

 

For example, if RNG comes out ahead for a Yuria +14, and I spent 30 attempts all fail, the value of 30 fail stacks probably outweigh the additional cost required to start from 0 stacks on an alt. In all cases, there is a point where you want to move to an alt because the current fail stacks you built are way too precious.

So using the charts can you tell me:

Given Liverto weapon is 9m, Memory frags are 150k, Weap stones are 300k and my Liverto is at +14.

I have 3 characters, with +0, +14, +16 fail stacks.

Using your magical charts and your genius intellect, tell me whether I should force enchant my Liverto or RNG? And if RNG, on which character? 

Well, my genius intellect tells me to use the same strategy I use. Rub your hands together and pray to the RNG gods.

I've never once forced enchanted and my sword is +15 gold now, and all my armor is +13  or better.

Besides with +16 fail stacks, going from +14 to +15 you have a maximum of a 8.5% chance to succeed anyways. It isn't even worth attempting to upgrade the liverto until youve reached the failstack cap of 25. Then you'll have a 16% chance of success, which on average will succed 16 out of 100 times. or 1 out of 8 times more or less. So is it cheaper to buy 8 livertos or go for the forced enchant which costs many many more stones and guarantees a minimum of 10 more livertos to repair it.

I just failstack armor until I hit the failstack cap, then round robin between armor and weapons until one procs. It's cheaper in the long run to RNG than to force (IF YOUR LUCK IS GOOD) If your favor with the RNG gods is low, it's not even worth thinking about, just force it.

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