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Force Enchant vs YOLO Mode Enchant

14 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Me and a friend were having an argument over what is the better route to go mathematically and probability wise, the Force Enchant or the YOLO Mode enchant on something like a Liverto Weapon in reference to this chart right here.

bdo_fail_stacks.png.d2280d49a9556270326f

My friend says that force enchanting is the way to go because the chances are so bleak, even with fail stacks from +14 to +15. I argue that it is mathematically more logical to try and YOLO mode enchant. Since enchanting from +14-15 takes 100 durability, let us assume the break even point is 20 enchant fails (we aren't going to count black weapon stones for arguments sake). So at 20 fail stacks you have pretty much spent more then if you had force enchanted it.

I will use this handy calculator over here:

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Basically input the probability of success over a single trial. While the fact that fail stacks add more chance for you to enchant the item, I think you can average out the chance of you enchanting the item 20 times without changing the outcome drastically. So basically this would be a 2.5% at +0 and a 12% chance at +19 going for 20. Average them together you get an average chance of 7.25%. Then input the trials which is 20 and the number of successes which is 1.

Now, you want to look at the probability that X < 1. This means the probability that you will fail to enchant using 20 attempts. This number as you can see is 0.222 or 22.2%. This means you have a 77.8% chance of succeeding your enchant. Now that is food for thought just in case you guys were wondering. Please inform me if this is wrong or I am going about this wrong.

Some interesting numbers to note (remember to change the average chance)

5 Attempts = 16.3% chance

10 Attempts = 38.5% chance

15 Attempts = 59% chance

25 Attempts =  89.1% chance

 

Edited by killahmayne

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Posted

I went from 20 (prestacked) to 40 failstacks from +11 to +12, and again from +12 to +13 on my Liverto. I'd prefer guaranteed results over the chance to get royally fudged again, but thank you.

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Posted

Thank you for this post!!

I thought people never took a statistics class or something!! 

- I always started enhancing - even my liverto once it got to around 10 fail stacks. It just made more sense to start at say, 12% enhance rate and build it up to 18% instead of risk losing your stacks. Im glad we agree on the magic number. But for +14-15... idk. Maybe 12-15 would be better to start at, no?

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Posted

statisticly its still RNG ^^ some have luck and get their things to +15 with less costs then forcing, others pay 2-3 times more then they would have if they force.

So the statistic and numbers are nice, BUT my experience shows me and some other failstacks on the forum (+60 for a 14->15 liverto try) that i dont want to gamble and hate the game, i just want that level so i force and MAYBE give more then i should have but i have the weapon/armor at +15 and are happy about it ^^

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Posted

Build failstack. It's cheapest way to enhance gear/

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Posted (edited)

Build failstack. It's cheapest way to enhance gear/

This basically. For expensive stuff just have some cheap accessories and armours/weapons on the side to build fail stacks with.  And then use an alt or two to avoid wasting too many stacks on low enchant levels.

Edited by kalston

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Posted

but building failstacks cost aswell and if you are unlucky like some in this game building up 25 failstacks and then fail that you have at the end 60 failstacks is to much of a cost. ^^ but you will never know.

BTW i like to use my failstacks for accessory is much better used in my case then with armor/weapons ^^ i just fail so much that i have atm 3 chars with around 30 failstacks each. Hope i will get a pri ring or earring or both xD

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Posted

This basically. For expensive stuff just have some cheap accessories and armours/weapons on the side to build fail stacks with.  And then use an alt or two to avoid wasting too many stacks on low enchant levels.

Yes this is very true and a good idea. I personally used some of the Grunil gear/offhand that I was plussing anyway to get my Liverto to 15 and it wasn't terrible at all. You can even buy a random cheap offhand and try to build fail stacks on those. That can be kinda expensive but you can always salvage/sell that offhand once it is +15 and at least recover a good amount of black stones back to repeat the process again.

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Posted (edited)

good numbers but consider RNG over anything so all numbers at the end means nothing but considering numbers and rng together read this:

i did 44 stacks trying to do something i dont even remember so i said to me : "good this i will do my liverto from 14 to 15"

then trying to do stacks with other char i did +10 lightorse +10 chapron +15 zereth shoes and liverto until 14 always with less than 20-25 stacks

i had a pair of talis 14 i was not sure about forcing or doing by stacks so i get 24 stacks stopped put on liverto and did +15 at 29

then i was really unsure about what to do with talis 14 repaired forcing or not? i stacked again and at 17 had +15

then with a pair of horse staff only +4 i got like 12 stacks (forcing ask a lot less) but at the end is good also failing because i will do something better with those stacks and i will do a +5 with another char starting from 0(or 3)

CONCLUSION: having RNG over anything worth always doing stacks because in good way (liverto, shoes, horse accessories) you get your enhancment before saving a lot of blackstone, in a bad way if doesnt enchant you still have a lot of failstacks to do accessories, costumes or whatever...i still have my 44 stacks waiting ogre rings or other valuable items.

Edited by anarres

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Posted

You cant use this chart, since it shows you the numbers for GREEN items. Anyway, I prefer safe enchants whenever possible. Once I failed upgrading my shield from +8 to +9 at 26 failstacks, at that point I said ----- it.

But when I wanted to build failstacks for PRI earrings I brought my reblath glove from 0 to 15 in like 30 BS, +15 with 3 failstacks...

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Posted

also in my experience i reach a result about 3-5 levels before what is written on the chart ( i use too like a reference) and like said before is a green weapon chart , armors liverto and accessories are a little bit different from that results...but still RNG rules over anything can have 99% and be unlucky and get the only 1% and fail as viceversa gain with very low chances to do it

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Posted (edited)

I force enchant up until around +11. Then I get some fail stacks and see if I succeed within a decent point. If I fail up until 20ish stacks, I force enchant and move on to the next + to properly use my fail stacks.

 

(one time I used 40 fail stacks on a +6 grunil helmet because I wasn't paying attention)

Edited by Keshanberk

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Posted

The problem is the chart is probably wrong. At the very least the +8 for weapons and +6 for armor is wrong. My sample sizes are too small to make any statements about the harder enchants (I definitely can't tell between like a 5% chance vs. a 6% for example.)

5 out of my 7 attempts to upgrade a weapon or armor piece the first time succeeded and 2 out of 2 succeeded with 1 fail stack. That first step is obviously not 20% + 2.5% per fail stack, which makes me doubt the whole chart really. The problem is if it's off even slightly for some of the higher tiers, it can make a massive difference in average number of attempts you need to upgrade something.

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Posted

I usually go to 12/13 with rng, then I do force enchanting. Probably expensive as hell, but who cares

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