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The cost of +16 +17


146 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Disclaimer:

If you want to be an idiot then don't bother posting here. I have a list of responses here for you, to save you the time of typing.

Q: It's all RNG.

A: That's why you need to stay in school kids.

Q: Characters have different RNG, the tables are not accurate, RNG is controlled by lizardmen or flying gnomes.

A: Then please don't follow it. In the event that they are accurate or largely accurate (which is very likely), I save a lot of money and you waste a lot of money. Win-win for me.

Q: I have nothing of substance to say but I want to feel important in this thread too.

A: Go do that in another thread.

End disclaimer:

 

Variables used:

1.thumb.JPG.d137eeef7dda67e1aab676e57dd2

The first method is the normal blackstone FS with +14 armor continuously deleveled.

The second method is with +19 armor continuously deleveled. The second method does not apply to what we're going to talk about in this thread, because it is applicable only to very high fail stacks. Very high FS is mostly applicable to high enchanted jewelry. The precise time to switch from method 1 to method 2 depends on the cost of resources, but that's not the topic of this thread so I won't go into detail.

Delevel probability is set at 30%. I do not know if this is accurate, because I don't know the real value. So I just used the number most frequently quoted for Cron Stone delevel chance.

 

2.thumb.JPG.0ccab6486a8502e9aa92f6102364

The method used in this calculation is combinatorics, not Monte-Carlo simulation. The answers therefore can be thought of as having the power of a sample size of infinite. These mathematical solutions are perfect, given the input variables are accurate. In fact, if the variables are accurate and experimental findings contradict these calculations, it proves Daum uses a faulty RNG algorithm.

 

3.thumb.JPG.b58102207d236246e2bbe68bf641

This is the perfect strategy for fodder enchantment from 18->19. This is the reason I set cost of delevel to 350m in the second method. The formulas in the second column will take each level of enchantment delevel into account and plan accordingly to delevel chance and cost.

4.thumb.JPG.8f21f7116bef44bd672177d7a199

The average cost using the optimal enchantment strategy for +15->+16 Liverto is approximately 33mil.

 

5.thumb.JPG.4e303e4c99a10a7eed0df8d01bf8

16->17 Liverto costs just under 100mil on average.

Edit: logged in the game and apparently you can't delevel 16->15. Therefore the crossed out number 55mil is correct, because there is no delevel at this point.

 

Reminder that the mean and median are not the same thing. Enchanting is right skewed distribution. The values calculated here are means. This means:

  1. You are expected to spend the cost stated in this thread to reach +16/+17.
  2. More than 50% of the people who attempt this will spend less than the stated cost.

 

So with Valencia coming out today, remember to do what the forum does best. If the force enchant material cost turns out to be higher than these values, cry so much salty tears that Daum is forced to change it for the rest of us! Thanks~

 

Edited by Featherine
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Posted

A very interesting post, thank you for sharing this.

+18 might just be a little bit more expensive than I originally anticipated.

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Posted

A very interesting post, thank you for sharing this.

+18 might just be a little bit more expensive than I originally anticipated.

NP. It's actually much better than jewelry. Like to get PEN MoS from TET if you price the TET at 1 billion costs 10 billion gold on average.

On the other hand, perfect strategy enchantment for Zaka +15 -> +20 is like 5 billion combined.

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Posted

Its all RNG

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Posted

NP. It's actually much better than jewelry. Like to get PEN MoS from TET if you price the TET at 1 billion costs 10 billion gold on average.

On the other hand, perfect strategy enchantment for Zaka +15 -> +20 is like 5 billion combined.

Yes, weapon upgrades seem to be a lot more efficient in general.
I just compared the cost/AP of Kzarka compared to MoS using the prices you provided (up to TET, I think PEN is highly inefficient and should be the last thing to worry about - even most Koreans stop at TET from what I've seen)

If you assume a cost of 1 billion for a TET MoS (13AP), 1 AP costs 76,9m - PEN would cost 666,7m for 1 AP
If you assume a cost of 5 billion for a +20 Kzarka, 1 AP starting from +15 costs 130,6m (assuming 300m for a +15 Kzarka, it doesn't change a lot even if you double this)

I think realistically speaking, a +19 weapon would be the optimal point to stop and think about TET accessories and maybe a DUO/TRI Ogre Ring.

Actually, could you maybe even provide this excel sheet so I could do some testing with the price fluctuations I'm predicting for the next couple of weeks?
Maybe I'm able to come up with an optimised equipment upgrading strategy. I would of course share my results as well and maybe even try to create an adaptive tool, which provides you with an optimised upgrading route for your given server's economy (If I somehow find the time to do so).

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Posted (edited)

But.. that sheet is for weapons (100% success rate at enchant lvl 6 and 7). and a sharp black crystal shard is 7 mil, not 3.2m :o

Edited by Parc

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Posted

nice work ! thx :)

i don't get the "deleveled" part with the +14 armor for fail stack, could u explaind it ? 

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Posted

Actually, could you maybe even provide this excel sheet so I could do some testing with the price fluctuations I'm predicting for the next couple of weeks?
Maybe I'm able to come up with an optimised equipment upgrading strategy. I would of course share my results as well and maybe even try to create an adaptive tool, which provides you with an optimised upgrading route for your given server's economy (If I somehow find the time to do so).

Sorry, but for the time being I'm not releasing this spreadsheet for two reasons:

  1. I want to see how the market adapts in the same way you do. #ForScience
  2. Like I've stated multiple times in the forums already, I really hate this community.

It's interesting to see what strategy people adopt for this new system. I doubt it will be optimal though. For example, using 25 stacks on making PRI jewelry isn't the best way to do it. I've even heard idiots go 30+ stacks for it.

But.. that sheet is for weapons (100% success rate at enchant lvl 6 and 7). and a sharp black crystal shard is 7 mil, not 3.2m :o

3.2 is fodder armor enchant. Armors use hard. Notice the next 2 pics have 7m?

nice work ! thx :)

i don't get the "deleveled" part with the +14 armor for fail stack, could u explaind it ? 

Right now the only way to fail stack is to use +14 armor then when it gets to +15 you put it on a red name alt and die in PvE to force it to delevel back to +14.

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Posted

man, thx for u'r accurancy and answers 

 

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Posted

i bet 90% of the people here have no clue of what you just established here, you could delve deeper in some explanations and help the poor souls

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Posted (edited)

i bet 90% of the people here have no clue of what you just established here, you could delve deeper in some explanations and help the poor souls

Can't teach combinatorics on BDO forums too hard lol. Just think of it as if I'm dead average luck, how will I do in enchanting? Which is what this thread is answering.

Edited by Featherine

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Posted

You don't delevel from 16 and 17, as per what they said. So the math here is off by a lot.

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Posted

You don't delevel from 16 and 17, as per what they said. So the math here is off by a lot.

you can delevel back to 16 and 17 if you fail at 18 and 19 respectively

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Posted (edited)

You don't delevel from 16 and 17, as per what they said. So the math here is off by a lot.

+15->16 can't delevel anyway

Are you saying 16->17 and 17->18 can't either? If that's the case look at the value I crossed off on the second SS for Liverto. In that case it will be 33m, 55m, rather than 33m, 100m.

 

I have a toggle on spreadsheet for whether delevel can occur at each stage, so it's just a matter of slight alterations for +18 +19 +20 which isn't displayed in this thread.

Edited by Featherine

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Posted

I am trying to get an idea of what all of this actually means for optimal enchantment. 
You are saying that we should start at 16 failstacks for +16? And what about the rest? 

Also, I'd love to see your formulas if possible? :)

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Posted

 

The second method does not apply to what we're going to talk about in this thread, because it is applicable only to very high fail stacks. Very high FS is mostly applicable to high enchanted jewelry. The precise time to switch from method 1 to method 2 depends on the cost of resources, but that's not the topic of this thread so I won't go into detail.

What exactly am I supposed to learn from this thread?

I see lots of costs for trying to attain certain fail stack amounts but i see no practical use for the information. It would help to see two or three examples of how this information should influence game play. Maybe some enchants with results compared to a different/common approach. 

is there a formula that can include a variable representing the item cost so players can determine the optimal course of action? I just don't see any value in being told, it costs a lot to enchant.

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Posted

2 bookmarks on this entire forum, both from you, thanks a lot, really appreciated.

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Posted

I am trying to get an idea of what all of this actually means for optimal enchantment. 
You are saying that we should start at 16 failstacks for +16? And what about the rest? 

Also, I'd love to see your formulas if possible? :)

I'm not saying we should use 16 fs for +16. I didn't actually put the optimal stack to use in this thread, just how much it will cost you if you use that value of stacks.

The formula is quite complex and would be impossible to discuss here.

 

For example the formula used to compare the two fail stack strategies at each stack level:

=IF(MOD(A6,Params!$B$14)=0,OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,A6/Params!$B$14,0,1,1),OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1)+(OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6+Params!$B$14-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1)-OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1))*(MOD(A6,Params!$B$14)/Params!$B$14))

 

To discuss all the numbers and equations used in this spreadsheet will take 2 whole pages. In short, the optimal fail stack cost for each stack at every stack level is calculated for both fs strategies using combinatorics. The gear expected tries is calculated and the total cost + potential loss from deleveling is multiplied by the expected tries. This is done for every stack from 0->124 for every enchantment level, and the optimal strategy is the one that gives the lowest cost.

What exactly am I supposed to learn from this thread?

I see lots of costs for trying to attain certain fail stack amounts but i see no practical use for the information. It would help to see two or three examples of how this information should influence game play. Maybe some enchants with results compared to a different/common approach. 

is there a formula that can include a variable representing the item cost so players can determine the optimal course of action? I just don't see any value in being told, it costs a lot to enchant.

Because the topic in discussion is surprisingly difficult to understand, I highly doubt most people will get anything out of this thread. The spreadsheet I made does exactly what you said and takes input variables of cost and probability to output the perfect strategy. The formula is too complex and will be unusable for most people who cannot derive it themselves anyway.

For the vast majority, the lesson learnt from this thread is that to get a +15 Liverto to +17, it will cost you 100m ignoring force enchant. If the force enchant mechanic Daum implements cost more than 13ish stones 0 durability to force both tiers combined, then Daum really didn't do shit about changing the system for us. In that case, we spend as much as KR on enchanting anyway.

2 bookmarks on this entire forum, both from you, thanks a lot, really appreciated.

Np!

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Posted (edited)

=IF(MOD(A6,Params!$B$14)=0,OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,A6/Params!$B$14,0,1,1),OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1)+(OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6+Params!$B$14-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1)-OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1))*(MOD(A6,Params!$B$14)/Params!$B$14))

Hehe for someone that does this for a living you recognize an unnecessarily overcomplicated formula when you see it. But I guess pats are in order so pat pat on your back :)

I feel like I could have gotten a lot more value out of this if I were able to read the tables though, think about formatting a bit to save your own eyes as well as ours:P

Something simple like this is probably enough:

 8E7HG9o.png

And no I am not trying to one-up you or anything. Thank you so much for the calculations and the tables, just saying with some structure I think people would extract value a lot easier.

Edited by Crowleyz
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Posted

i bet 90% of the people here have no clue of what you just established here, you could delve deeper in some explanations and help the poor souls

Could've just asked to guy nicely to explain it for you instead of this bs post, mate

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Posted

I'm not saying we should use 16 fs for +16. I didn't actually put the optimal stack to use in this thread, just how much it will cost you if you use that value of stacks.

The formula is quite complex and would be impossible to discuss here.

For example the formula used to compare the two fail stack strategies at each stack level:

=IF(MOD(A6,Params!$B$14)=0,OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,A6/Params!$B$14,0,1,1),OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1)+(OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6+Params!$B$14-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1)-OFFSET('Fail Stack'!$T$1,(A6-MOD(A6,Params!$B$14))/Params!$B$14,0,1,1))*(MOD(A6,Params!$B$14)/Params!$B$14))

To discuss all the numbers and equations used in this spreadsheet will take 2 whole pages. In short, the optimal fail stack cost for each stack at every stack level is calculated for both fs strategies using combinatorics. The gear expected tries is calculated and the total cost + potential loss from deleveling is multiplied by the expected tries. This is done for every stack from 0->124 for every enchantment level, and the optimal strategy is the one that gives the lowest cost.

 

Thanks a lot for your answer. I feel like I know quite a bit of statistics and yet I feel like I come up short on how to understand this. Would it be possible for you to do the math on what on average would be the best fail stack to start at?

I can see that the formula is too complex to discuss here, but thanks for sharing. If you ever decide to do it anyway, I'd love to give it a read.

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Posted

Hehe for someone that does this for a living you recognize an unnecessarily overcomplicated formula when you see it. But I guess pats are in order so pat pat on your back :)

Yea, can't deny I'm pretty shit at Excel. If you have a simpler alternative to do that calculation, pls share.

I feel like I could have gotten a lot more value out of this if I were able to read the tables though, think about formatting a bit to save your own eyes as well as ours:P

Something simple like this is probably enough:

Yea it was designed for myself and I'm pretty bad at the whole color thing :l 

Thanks a lot for your answer. I feel like I know quite a bit of statistics and yet I feel like I come up short on how to understand this. Would it be possible for you to do the math on what on average would be the best fail stack to start at?

I can see that the formula is too complex to discuss here, but thanks for sharing. If you ever decide to do it anyway, I'd love to give it a read.

I know the optimal FS to use and the optimal way to get those FS for every gear enchantment from +1 to +20, every jewelry enchantment from PRI to PEN for every cost of every single material. I'm just not interested in sharing right now :[

The effect on the market would be too great, and I hate this community overall...

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Posted

 

Yea, can't deny I'm pretty shit at Excel. If you have a simpler alternative to do that calculation, pls share.

Yea it was designed for myself and I'm pretty bad at the whole color thing :l 

That's ok, in my mind the actual result table only needs 6 columns: Upgrade chance, bonus per FS, chance at max fs, chance at delevel, cost of attempt, cost of delevel.

I know I am nitpicking here but I have this problem all the time when I ask someone to calculate something for me and they send me back a jumble of tables, basically the info you want should be hitting you in the face first time you look at it :P 

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Posted (edited)

an awful lot of blogging for what can be summed up as "build a big failstack before trying and don't try this shit when broke" but at least your mother loves you for who you are. Devs obscure as much as they can to give tryhards strokes and suicidal fits, don't think too much into it.

Edited by Waifu_Hunter

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Posted

That's ok, in my mind the actual result table only needs 6 columns: Upgrade chance, bonus per FS, chance at max fs, chance at delevel, cost of attempt, cost of delevel.

I know I am nitpicking here but I have this problem all the time when I ask someone to calculate something for me and they send me back a jumble of tables, basically the info you want should be hitting you in the face first time you look at it :P 

There are 6 sheets and the actual calculations and logic to derive these numbers actually took almost 50 columns worth of information. In terms of presentation you're right, however I didn't make this with that in mind.

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