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Curious if I actually have the worst DUO luck in NA / EU


34 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Over the weekend I succeeded my first duo, the trusty Liverto axe.  Prior to succeeding on the axe I was 0 for 24 on duo attempts.

 

I know people have worse luck going for TRI / TET and some crazy stacks on armor going for +15, but does anyone have worse luck than 1 in 25 for DUO attempts?

 

13 of these were pre-patch with jewelry.

 

Hit me with your bad RNG stories.

Edited by Slurpee

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Posted

Over the weekend I succeeded my first duo, the trusty Liverto axe.  Prior to succeeding on the axe I was 0 for 24 on duo attempts.

 

I know people have worse luck going for TRI / TET and some crazy stacks on armor going for +15, but does anyone have worse luck than 1 in 25 for DUO attempts?

 

13 of these were pre-patch with jewelry.

 

Hit me with your bad RNG stories.

With proper failstack management, and swapping to appropriate targets when I reached higher failstacks, I consumed 45+ black stones trying to get my Grunil gloves from +9 to +10.  What I mean by 'proper management', I didn't go to +45 failstacks, I kept the window of opportunity small, near the stack cap, and effectively used them on other pieces.

Needless to say, it set back my gear progression.  It also happened +11->+12.  The RNG gods crapped all over me so badly I converted the Failstack Tables into a Percentile of Failure table, so I could see what percentile of the community failed as badly as I did.  Had more than a few sub-2% stretches.  Meanwhile, my longtime gaming buddy, zoomed through his enchants with minimal blackstone cost.

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Posted

My luck has been very avergage.... jelly? LoL

I did have someone in guild say armor is easy, 15 failstacking got pri first try every time... ranging from 10-20 failstacks I got pri on second try on every piece, lol

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Posted (edited)

I went to +13 Liverto easily with almost no effort. Had 80 durability in the end. That was good RNG.

I used 120 Memory Fragments back in March to get 4HP on Hit on RT. That was bad RNG.

Edited by Fain
WTF

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Posted

Yesterday I tried to get my Liverto from +10 to +11. Startet at 11 failstacks because I was afraid to upgrade the Grunil parts I use to generate failstacks accidentially.

The only thing I achieved was that I burned down the durability from 87 to 17 and now I have 25 failstacks.

But unfortunately I have been pretty unlucky with upgrading since beginning of zhe game. Forced my way through the last steps of Taritas armour for this reason but I assume that will be a way too expensive in case of the Liverto...

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Posted

Going after that spreadsheet for upgrade chance maybe you shouldv used 35stacks instead of 25and maybe some people did that and didnt mention when they compare there results? I wasted 4/4 pri witch so far, could consider that more unlucky. I spent over 300fragments on a +15liverto and 1week later they give us the patch to half the cost. 

 

Dont cry, carry on.

Yesterday I tried to get my Liverto from +10 to +11. Startet at 11 failstacks because I was afraid to upgrade the Grunil parts I use to generate failstacks accidentially.

The only thing I achieved was that I burned down the durability from 87 to 17 and now I have 25 failstacks.

But unfortunately I have been pretty unlucky with upgrading since beginning of zhe game. Forced my way through the last steps of Taritas armour for this reason but I assume that will be a way too expensive in case of the Liverto...

You are doing it wrong if u force cheap gear on the last levels. Forcing it up to 13thats nice because it saves time clicking shitty blackstones running to the repair npc and stuff but after that failstacks are valuable and you go on crying how you forced it but...since you forced it u never stodd the chance to get lucky at a piece.

You did the liverto wrong too, the max stacks for 10-11 is 17. You should start there and not 5below that. There goes  30 of that durability wasted because you couldnt do 5more failstacks .. which is insane considering how easy 17failstacks are. Starting at 17 average would be around 4 fails, adding another 20duarbility lost being AVERAGE rng. So thats 50durability on average (+your fail) so you only lost 27dura on top of that which isnt that much. 

Maybe you still got a little behind in rng, but you did it wrong too.

 

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Posted

Let me sing you a song:

Liverto +15 -> +16 - started at 10 failstacks, ended up with 70 something. Went out of stones so i decided to go duo on Ancient Weapon Core - failed, (still 70something stacks), tried tri Outlaws Ring - failed, tried duo witch with those - Failed.

*Sad violin*

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Posted

Going after that spreadsheet for upgrade chance maybe you shouldv used 35stacks instead of 25and maybe some people did that and didnt mention when they compare there results? I wasted 4/4 pri witch so far, could consider that more unlucky. I spent over 300fragments on a +15liverto and 1week later they give us the patch to half the cost. 

 

Dont cry, carry on.

You are doing it wrong if u force cheap gear on the last levels. Forcing it up to 13thats nice because it saves time clicking shitty blackstones running to the repair npc and stuff but after that failstacks are valuable and you go on crying how you forced it but...since you forced it u never stodd the chance to get lucky at a piece.

You did the liverto wrong too, the max stacks for 10-11 is 17. You should start there and not 5below that. There goes  30 of that durability wasted because you couldnt do 5more failstacks .. which is insane considering how easy 17failstacks are. Starting at 17 average would be around 4 fails, adding another 20duarbility lost being AVERAGE rng. So thats 50durability on average (+your fail) so you only lost 27dura on top of that which isnt that much. 

Maybe you still got a little behind in rng, but you did it wrong too.

 

Totally aware of this but my spreadsheet said 15 failstacks and beyond that there should be no increase of percentage (32.5% chance is max I suppose). However unfortunately I don't have other parts to upgrade that allow me to achieve the required quantity of failstacks. Therefore I decided to start at 11 instead of 15.

Perhaps somebody could give me more information how to achieve the required failstacks more easy since I am obviously doing things wrong.

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Posted

Totally aware of this but my spreadsheet said 15 failstacks and beyond that there should be no increase of percentage (32.5% chance is max I suppose). However unfortunately I don't have other parts to upgrade that allow me to achieve the required quantity of failstacks. Therefore I decided to start at 11 instead of 15.

Perhaps somebody could give me more information how to achieve the required failstacks more easy since I am obviously doing things wrong.

Everybody has to use musket/horsegear, u can do that too.

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Posted

Sounds like lots of the people in this thread have bad failstack management, I went from 30 to 52 failstacks 3 times getting duo but I didnt mind because I then used those failstacks to get tri armour and tri my weapon. When you get full duo you will find that failing tet can be a good method for failstacking because at that point failstacks are more valuable than the upgrade.

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Posted

Everybody has to use musket/horsegear, u can do that too.

hmmm. I will think about this. At first I anyway need to find enough blackstones again to start with this. Only for that I will spend another week.

Sometimes it seems to be an endless chain that takes forever. ;-)

But thanks for the hint.

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Posted

Sounds like lots of the people in this thread have bad failstack management, I went from 30 to 52 failstacks 3 times getting duo but I didnt mind because I then used those failstacks to get tri armour and tri my weapon. When you get full duo you will find that failing tet can be a good method for failstacking because at that point failstacks are more valuable than the upgrade.

For me, it was the cost of the stones more than anything.  Effectively used the stacks elsewhere, but continually failed for 45 attempts across the small window 9->10 :(

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Posted (edited)

With proper failstack management, and swapping to appropriate targets when I reached higher failstacks, I consumed 45+ black stones trying to get my Grunil gloves from +9 to +10.  What I mean by 'proper management', I didn't go to +45 failstacks, I kept the window of opportunity small, near the stack cap, and effectively used them on other pieces.

Needless to say, it set back my gear progression.  It also happened +11->+12.  The RNG gods crapped all over me so badly I converted the Failstack Tables into a Percentile of Failure table, so I could see what percentile of the community failed as badly as I did.  Had more than a few sub-2% stretches.  Meanwhile, my longtime gaming buddy, zoomed through his enchants with minimal blackstone cost.

I had this too. Got four characters from ~5 to 35 failstacks on one pair of grunil boots, just trying to +14 to +15. Trust me I understand proper failstacks management. Never have any issues with failstacks. Just the actual enchants with the stacks are horrid for me. Currently three of those chars are at 45-50 failstacks from the duo failures, all of which were over 35 failstacks. Ended up actually getting the duo on a fourth character which had 29 stacks when I got it (started at +20 and failed three times before I got it).

 

oh, and if you are taking about percentiles, going 0 for 24 on duos is about 1 in 20k chance. Less likely than flipping a coin 14 times and getting heads every time. Not sure what percentile that is, but it's about 99.9968% chance to have a duo before 24 attempts

Edited by Slurpee

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Posted

I had this too. Got four characters from ~5 to 35 failstacks on one pair of grunil boots, just trying to +14 to +15. Trust me I understand proper failstacks management. Never have any issues with failstacks. Just the actual enchants with the stacks are horrid for me. Currently three of those chars are at 45-50 failstacks from the duo failures, all of which were over 35 failstacks. Ended up actually getting the duo on a fourth character which had 29 stacks when I got it (started at +20 and failed three times before I got it).

We should start a support group.

Folks who haven't been there, don't understand the true ramifications.  Didn't have a massive stockpile of stones at the time either, that's honestly what hurt the most.  Cost me time.

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We should start a support group.

Folks who haven't been there, don't understand the true ramifications.  Didn't have a massive stockpile of stones at the time either, that's honestly what hurt the most.  Cost me time.

rng is rng. The shitty part is that I can't play as much as I want to, so I play very smart and cautious. I don't rage enchant, I save stacks properly, I do 100% everything I can to maximize the resources I have, and I get shit on for it. meanwhile guildies yoloing duo attempts at 14 stacks and succeeding. Just don't know what else I can do. I literally think I have the worst duo luck in NA / EU. 0 in 24 attempts is basically statistically impossible, and given the smaller player base I doubt anyone else us had that bad of luck and kept going all the way to 24. When I was at 0 for 11 I couldn't believe how bad it is and no one I talked to had anywhere near that hard of a time with it. 

Sounds like lots of the people in this thread have bad failstack management, I went from 30 to 52 failstacks 3 times getting duo but I didnt mind because I then used those failstacks to get tri armour and tri my weapon. When you get full duo you will find that failing tet can be a good method for failstacking because at that point failstacks are more valuable than the upgrade.

it's not a matter of stack management, I understand the stacks have theoretical value, but blowing up ~250m+ in jewelry and another 175m in sharps and mem frags when using the proper stacks, and without a single success is pretty insane. As stated elsewhere, the odds are worse than 1 in 20000 to fail that many times. When I go for my TRIs I have three characters with 45+ stacks, but it seems like the stacks are completely irrelevant given my duo luck.

Going after that spreadsheet for upgrade chance maybe you shouldv used 35stacks instead of 25and maybe some people did that and didnt mention when they compare there results? I wasted 4/4 pri witch so far, could consider that more unlucky. I spent over 300fragments on a +15liverto and 1week later they give us the patch to half the cost. 

All of of the first 21 duo failures were 35+ failstacks. After that it was suggested I was "using too many failstacks" so I went from 20 and got a success on the fourth attempt (29 stacks.) I am something like 18/30ish on duo attempts, most with 20+ stacks, so that is a bit above average. Pre-patch I blew up two PRI witches, four PRI marks, four PRI Blue coral earrings, and three PRI Schulz belts going for duos. All of these were 35+ stacks.

Dont cry, carry on.

I don't like being whiny, "bad beats story" guy, and I am still playing. I will get Tri+ on all my gear eventually, the point of this thread wasn't just to cry about bad rng. I know people have had worse luck and lost more on rng than I have. Hell, one of my guildies is like 15 fails in trying to get his Tri Liverto. I am legitimately wondering if anyone else has had this bad of luck on duos. When I calculated the odds of 24 fails I realized it was so low that I may actually be the only person to fail that many times and still be playing.

Let me sing you a song:

Liverto +15 -> +16 - started at 10 failstacks, ended up with 70 something. Went out of stones so i decided to go duo on Ancient Weapon Core - failed, (still 70something stacks), tried tri Outlaws Ring - failed, tried duo witch with those - Failed.

*Sad violin*

32 fails (going 10 to 74) with ~50% chance is 1 in 4.3 billion. As bad as my luck is, I can say that you 100% definitely did not get the 70+ stacks on PRI attempts. For reference you are about 15 times more likely to win the powerball (1 in 300 million) than you would be to fail a PRI 32 times on max stacks. Attempting a duo (35% success) and a Tri after (20% ish success), and another duo (35%) and failing all of them is about 1 in 12 billion. Or about 40 times less likely than winning the powerball. 

Even if this did happen (which it didn't) you wasted the stacks hard.

If you are going to make up stories at least make them a little bit believable. 

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it's not a matter of stack management, I understand the stacks have theoretical value, but blowing up ~250m+ in jewelry and another 175m in sharps and mem frags when using the proper stacks, and without a single success is pretty insane. As stated elsewhere, the odds are worse than 1 in 20000 to fail that many times. When I go for my TRIs I have three characters with 45+ stacks, but it seems like the stacks are completely irrelevant given my duo luck.

 

nothing to do with luck there is a statistical value applied to that number of stacks. 

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nothing to do with luck there is a statistical value applied to that number of stacks. 

I already stated I understand their value. I also failed an extremely improbably number of times when using proper stacks, and succeeded when using "improper" stacks. I get that they have value, but I would happily be one of the people who have trouble stacking but get their enchants much easier.

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I had this too. Got four characters from ~5 to 35 failstacks on one pair of grunil boots, just trying to +14 to +15. Trust me I understand proper failstacks management. Never have any issues with failstacks. Just the actual enchants with the stacks are horrid for me. Currently three of those chars are at 45-50 failstacks from the duo failures, all of which were over 35 failstacks. Ended up actually getting the duo on a fourth character which had 29 stacks when I got it (started at +20 and failed three times before I got it).

 

oh, and if you are taking about percentiles, going 0 for 24 on duos is about 1 in 20k chance. Less likely than flipping a coin 14 times and getting heads every time. Not sure what percentile that is, but it's about 99.9968% chance to have a duo before 24 attempts

Its pretty clear at this point that rng is rigged somehow in this game. Some people i see get lucky at rates unimaginable. Saw a guy who wanted to quit attempt some crazy enhance..Hes popular streamer.

1rst try tet wep

1rst try tri mark

1rst try tri witch

You want to know the odds of that? 

Pretty fckin low

 

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Saved 29 stacks for duo Witches. Just a duo, nothing crazy  Yay..30 stacks?..sigh  I have been avoiding this for ages, but there comes to a point you just have no choice but to play the RNG game.  Been grinding ogres for a week, never get more than an A+, killed hundreds and hundreds.. nada.

 

Least fun aspect of the game by far.

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Its pretty clear at this point that rng is rigged somehow in this game. Some people i see get lucky at rates unimaginable. Saw a guy who wanted to quit attempt some crazy enhance..Hes popular streamer.

1rst try tet wep

1rst try tri mark

1rst try tri witch

You want to know the odds of that? 

Pretty fckin low

 

those are comparatively decent odds. 1/10 (TET) * 1/5 * 1/5 (Tri) = 1/250. Really not that insane if you think about it. Compared to 1 in 20k+ that I had, or the 1 in 15 billion the dude earlier claimed he had (he was definitely making it up).

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5th time, 30+ (from 0) failstacks on Liverto from pri to duo. I'll have to start recording this shit cause it is just getting funnier every day.

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5th time, 30+ (from 0) failstacks on Liverto from pri to duo. I'll have to start recording this shit cause it is just getting funnier every day.

If you are trying to DUO at 0 stacks.... Well I don't know what to tell you. Get to 12-14 stacks, PRI attempts to 20, duo attempts to 32-40, TRI attempts to 55, save the 55+ for tets.

i still don't believe that you got 70+ failing PRIs.... Did you just make that up or...?

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Posted (edited)

If you are trying to DUO at 0 stacks.... Well I don't know what to tell you. Get to 12-14 stacks, PRI attempts to 20, duo attempts to 32-40, TRI attempts to 55, save the 55+ for tets.

i still don't believe that you got 70+ failing PRIs.... Did you just make that up or...?

nope. I sometimes regret I'm not streaming. After those failed PRIs, and with 70+ fail-stacks also burned Ancient Weapon Core (Pri -> Duo), Witch Earring (Duo -> Tri) and 2X Outlaws (Duo->Tri).

Got all that back yesterday + finally succeeded at doing Duo liverto and last part of duo armor, and finally got T7 horse. Yesterday was a good day.

But i bet ill just push all that back to pri and horse will turn out retarded.

Edited by Sveyn

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Posted (edited)

nope. I sometimes regret I'm not streaming. After those failed PRIs, and with 70+ fail-stacks also burned Ancient Weapon Core (Pri -> Duo), Witch Earring (Duo -> Tri) and 2X Outlaws (Duo->Tri).

Got all that back yesterday + finally succeeded at doing Duo liverto and last part of duo armor, and finally got T7 horse. Yesterday was a good day.

But i bet ill just push all that back to pri and horse will turn out retarded.

I wish you streamed too, I would love to see something that is a 1 in 4 billion chance of happening, conservatively.

Odds of failing 30 PRI in a row = (1/2)^30 = 1/9.31x10^10 

Odds of failing a duo attempt ~2/3

Odds of failing a TRI ~3/4, 3 tries = (3/4)^3 = .422

(1/2)^30 * (2/3) * (3/4)^3 is about 2.62x10^-10. So one in 3.8 billion. I assume you used the supposed 76 stacks to get your duo so you can't screenshot it?

I'm not saying it's impossible, it's just so insanely statistically unlikely (impossible) I have trouble accepting that it actually happened. I don't know how to put it in perspective. You are about Fifteen times more likely to buy one ticket to the powerball and win (1 in 292 million) than for this to happen.

If it's true, then holy shit we have a true anomaly.

(Significantly) More likely, you should try to make up stories that are somewhat in the really of possibility. My scenario was pretty insane in my opinion, and it was less than 1 in 20000....

Edited by Slurpee

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Posted (edited)

It took me around 25fails (125dura) to get to +15(starting at, very high, 25stacks already but for the reason to get 35if i fail hard), bad luck. The failstacks made me get to DUO on third try and the other stack of 35brought me TRI with one click. RNG is rng, i have normal or sad times ahead of me while u have great times coming, TET hype ;)

 

PS: there is a theory that people found after failtacking on a lot of armors and it means the more fails it has in it overall the better the success gets so after a long while even only stacking to low 5 stacks a +14armor would eventually succeed, being used up. For the gear that you use that should be a good thing and could explain a lot, i felt like getting more out of items that failed more if i broke them up for armorstones but i only compared 4pieces so it´s nothing more than a guess. For liverto/zaka its a good thing to fail often up to TRI i guess.

Edited by Gudtimes

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